Three fund portfolio that is secretly just a giant US megacap bet with a small cap side quest
Report created on Aug 1, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 70.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00%
This portfolio is the IKEA starter kit of investing: three equity funds stacked in a way that screams “good enough.” On paper it looks diversified, but 70% is one broad US fund, 20% is the rest of the world as an afterthought, and 10% is a spicy small-cap value garnish. It’s basically US large caps wearing two different hats plus a tiny “I read about factor investing once” flourish. The structure is simple and coherent, but it’s also a one-trick pony: almost every outcome will be dictated by how US stocks behave, with the other two funds mostly along for the ride.
Growth
Historically, this thing did very well in absolute terms and still managed to be the B student in a class of A students. A 15.15% CAGR since 2019 is strong, but the US market benchmark did 16.12%, so your cheap S&P anchor slightly held you back relative to going all-in domestic. Compared to the global market, though, the portfolio looks like a show‑off, beating it by 1.50% annually. The max drawdown of -35% was brutal but not unusual for a pure-equity setup. Past data is like yesterday’s weather: it tells you what the climate feels like, not what the next storm will do.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation basically says, “Expect okay, prepare for weird.” Monte Carlo is just a fancy way of running your portfolio through thousands of alternate history timelines to see where $1,000 might land in 15 years. Median outcome around $2,818 means decent growth, but the range from $987 to $7,395 shows how chaotic pure equities can be. About three-quarters of simulations end positive, which is fine, but that remaining quarter is the “equities don’t always bail you out on your chosen timeline” reality. The model leans on historical volatility and returns, which is useful, but it can’t predict new crises, bubbles, or policy shocks.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class “diversification” here is just a polite way of saying “100% stocks and vibes.” There’s no ballast, no stabilizer, no boring cushion — just full commitment to the equity rollercoaster. Diversification across asset classes usually means mixing things that don’t all panic at the same time; this mix is more like a group chat where everyone screams together when markets drop. It’s a clean, simple structure, and from a pure-growth mindset it’s on brand, but there’s zero Plan B inside the portfolio itself. When stocks hurt, everything in here is going to hurt, because everything in here basically is stocks.
Sectors
- Technology 32%
- Financials 15%
- Industrials 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Health Care 8%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this is a tech‑flavored equity buffet pretending to be broad-based. Technology at 32% is a serious tilt, not a side note, with financials and industrials trailing far behind. The top look‑through holdings list reads like the who’s‑who of mega‑cap glam: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla. That’s not a diversified cast; that’s the same set of main characters showing up in every episode. When the trendy growth names party, the portfolio looks brilliant. When they collectively catch a cold, everything sneezes. It’s broad enough to pass a basic diversification test, but the sector risk is clearly riding on tech giants.
Regions
- North America 81%
- Europe Developed 7%
- Asia Developed 4%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this is “USA and friends who barely matter.” With 81% in North America, the rest of the world is more of a cameo than a co‑star. Europe, Japan, and the rest of developed and emerging markets nibble at single digits, which technically checks the “global exposure” box while still being heavily US‑centric. This kind of home bias feels comfortable but quietly ignores how much economic activity, currencies, politics, and growth drivers sit outside the US. When the US leads, the portfolio looks genius; when the US lags other regions, this positioning makes sure you feel that underperformance pretty clearly.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 40%
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 16%
- Small-cap 6%
- Micro-cap 5%
The market cap mix looks sensible at first glance — 40% mega‑cap, 30% large, with some mid, small, and even micro sprinkled in. But that supposed spread is dominated by mega‑cap behemoths steering the ship while small and micro caps are basically riding in the trunk. That 10% small-cap value fund barely moves the dial compared with the combined weight of the S&P giants. In practice, behavior will track big companies far more than the smaller ones, especially in stressful markets when liquidity bails out the little names last. The allocation looks balanced in a pie chart, but power sits squarely with the megas.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.26%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc. 4.61%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.01%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.53%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.28%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.94%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.81%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.41%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.34%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.29%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 25.49%
The look‑through holdings scream “index overlap bingo.” Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet twice, Meta, Tesla — the usual suspects are everywhere. You’re not just exposed to these names once; they’re echoing through multiple funds, making concentration sneakier than the top‑level allocations suggest. And that’s only from top‑10 holdings, covering less than a third of the actual portfolio — the real overlap is likely worse. This isn’t inherently bad, but it does mean the portfolio’s fate is disproportionately tied to a tiny handful of mega‑cap growth darlings. If they stumble together, the hit will be much bigger than the fund list implies.
Factors
The factor profile is almost suspiciously normal. Everything sits in “neutral” territory: value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low volatility — all basically hugging the market average. Factor exposure is like checking what’s really in the sauce: are you heavy on junky high-fliers, cheap unloved stuff, or steady plodders? Here, the answer is “mostly just the market with a mild small-value accent.” That little Avantis slice tries to tilt things, but it’s swamped by broad market exposure. The result is a personality-lite portfolio: no bold bet on quality, no clear lean into low volatility, no aggressive chase of momentum. Just… fine.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 70.00% 70.4% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 17.5% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 12.1%
Risk contribution is where the “three funds” illusion disappears. The S&P 500 ETF is 70% weight and 70.43% of total risk — it’s the entire main plot. The international fund is actually slightly under‑punching relative to its 20% weight, which is quietly doing some stabilizing work. The 10% small-cap value slice contributes 12.12% of risk, meaning it’s a bit of a drama queen relative to its size. Risk contribution shows who’s actually shaking the portfolio, not just who looks big on paper. Here, the S&P chunk is the boss, and the other two are side characters adding flavor and just a bit of extra wobble.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart basically pats this portfolio on the head and says, “Not bad at all.” The current portfolio sits on or very near the frontier, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.62 versus 0.80 for the optimal configuration using the same ingredients. The Sharpe ratio is just return per unit of risk — like grading how many dollars you earn per unit of stress. You’re not squeezing every last drop of efficiency out of these three funds, but you’re far from sloppy. For something this simple, being on the frontier is almost annoyingly competent, even if the overall design is still unapologetically equity‑heavy.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.20%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.60%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.41%
The total yield of 1.41% is pocket change in income terms — this portfolio clearly didn’t show up for dividends. The international fund tries to be a grown‑up with 2.60%, but the US slices barely bother to pay you. Dividend yield is just the cash you get back each year as a percentage of what you invested; here, that cash stream is more symbolic than substantial. This setup is unapologetically chasing price growth, not mailing you checks. During good markets, that’s fine, but in flat or choppy stretches, the lack of meaningful income leaves you fully reliant on capital gains to feel any progress.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio is almost boringly sensible. A blended TER of 0.06% is practically couch-cushion money for the amount of market exposure you’re getting. That tiny Avantis slice at 0.25% nudges the average up a bit, but not enough to be offensive. TER is just the annual fee for renting these funds — and here, you’re basically on a deep-discount subscription. Fees this low remove one of the easiest things to roast; if anything, the most notable flaw is that the simple, low‑cost structure is doing more heavy lifting than the actual diversification story.
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