Turbocharged US-heavy equity cocktail hiding behind a balanced label
Report created on Apr 23, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
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SP SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
SPYL - IE000XZSV718 70.00% -
CE iShares Edge MSCI Europe Momentum Factor UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)
CEMR - IE00BQN1K786 20.00% -
5M iShares Edge MSCI EM Value Factor UCITS ETF USD (Acc) USD
5MVL - IE00BG0SKF03 10.00%
This “balanced” portfolio is 100% stocks with three ETFs, one of which eats 70% of the pie. That’s not balance; that’s a main course with two side dishes pretending to matter. The S&P 500 fund is the boss, while the Europe momentum and EM value sleeves are decoration around the edges. A three-ETF setup can be elegant, but here it mostly shouts “US index core with a couple of factor bets taped on.” The structure means almost everything lives or dies with global large-cap equities, and especially the US. Call it what it is: a pure equity engine wearing a “risk 4/7 balanced” name tag.
Growth
Historically this thing absolutely ripped: €1,000 turned into €1,659, with a 22.76% CAGR versus ~19–19.5% for US and global markets. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the “average speed” of the portfolio, and your speedometer has been well into the fast lane. But that came with a -21% max drawdown, which is the “how much did it hurt at the worst moment” number. It fell hard, then took about six months to bounce back. Also, 90% of returns came from just 20 days — classic “miss a few big up days and the magic disappears.” Past data is yesterday’s weather: impressive storm, no guarantee it repeats.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection basically runs a thousand “what if the future behaves kind of like the past, but scrambled” simulations. Median outcome: €1,000 grows to about €2,822 over 15 years, with a wide likely band from about €1,848 to €4,303 and tail scenarios from “barely above water” to “hero story.” An 8.35% annualized return across all simulations is solid, but the spread tells the real story: this is an equity roller coaster, not a tram ride. The 75% chance of finishing positive is nice, but that still leaves one roll of the dice in four where the journey feels pretty underwhelming for the risk taken.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset-class “diversification” here is simple: 100% stocks, 0% anything else. That’s great if the goal is “maximum exposure to equity vibes,” but it makes the “balanced” label look like a bad joke. In asset-class terms, this is an all-or-nothing personality: either markets are kind and this screams higher, or they’re not and it just eats the full downturn. No bonds, no diversifiers, no stabilizers — everything lives in the same volatile bucket. It’s like putting all ingredients into one spicy dish and then acting surprised your meal has no mild option. Stability is definitely outsourced to luck and time.
Sectors
- Technology 28%
- Financials 18%
- Industrials 12%
- Health Care 9%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 4%
- Utilities 4%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector breakdown: tech 28%, financials 18%, then a long tail. That’s a pretty clear tilt toward “growth plus banks” with everything else playing supporting roles. Tech at nearly a third of the portfolio means any tantrum in the high-multiple, hype-driven part of the market hits hard. Financials being the second-biggest chunk adds a nice “interest rate drama” layer to the tech party. The mix isn’t insane, but it’s very much a modern big-cap equity story: heavy exposure to innovation narratives and credit cycles, lighter on boring-but-defensive stuff like utilities and staples. When the risk-on trade works, this sings; when it doesn’t, it squeaks.
Regions
- North America 70%
- Europe Developed 20%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Latin America 1%
Geography screams “America first, Europe gets a participation award.” About 70% is North America, 20% Europe developed, and the rest is just scattered seasoning across Asia and Latin America. For someone based in Europe, this is basically saying, “Local markets are cute, but the US is where the drama is.” It’s a very common bias, but it does mean the portfolio is handcuffed to US policy, US earnings cycles, and US mania (both up and down). The tiny allocations to emerging regions are more symbolic than impactful. Global? Technically yes. Functionally? It’s a US-led show with a European opening act.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 49%
- Large-cap 36%
- Mid-cap 15%
- Small-cap 1%
Market-cap breakdown is mega/large-cap royalty all the way: 49% mega, 36% large, a token 15% mid, and 1% small-cap just to say they’re invited. This is a portfolio that only wants to sit with the cool kids: giant, well-known names that dominate indexes and headlines. That’s comfortable, but it also means growth is heavily tied to already-huge companies squeezing more out of mature markets. The almost nonexistent small-cap slice means very little exposure to up-and-coming names that can move independently of the mega-cap soap opera. When the biggest stars shine, this looks genius; when they wobble, there’s no scrappy undercard to help.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.29%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
-
AA Apple Inc 4.65%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.43%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.54%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.09%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.83%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.67%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.56%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.30%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.10%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
- Top 10 total 25.47%
Look-through holdings show the usual suspects dominating: NVIDIA (5.29%), Apple (4.65%), Microsoft (3.43%), Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, Berkshire, Broadcom. This is basically the “Mega-Cap Magnificent Crowd” in disguise. Even with only top-10 ETF data, it’s obvious: the same names show up across funds, quietly stacking risk into a handful of giants. Overlap is likely worse than it looks because everything outside the top 10 isn’t even counted. So while three ETFs look diversified on the surface, the underlying reality is a concentrated bet on a short list of global titans with slightly different wrappers. Different funds, same celebrity cast.
Risk contribution
-
SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
Weight: 70.00% 72.6% -
iShares Edge MSCI Europe Momentum Factor UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)
Weight: 20.00% 18.4% -
iShares Edge MSCI EM Value Factor UCITS ETF USD (Acc) USD
Weight: 10.00% 8.9%
Risk contribution is where the costume falls off. The 70% S&P 500 ETF contributes 72.64% of total portfolio risk, basically running the entire show. The Europe momentum fund at 20% weight adds only 18.44% of risk, and the EM value slice at 10% adds just 8.92%. Risk/weight ratios under or near 1 mean the satellites are not wild animals; they’re actually slightly tamer than the core. This is not a three-engine aircraft; it’s one big engine with two small stabilizers. If something shakes this portfolio, odds are it’s coming from the broad US equity exposure, not the fancy-looking factor sideshow.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier is the curve showing the best possible return for each level of risk using only your existing holdings. Your current portfolio sits 3.37 percentage points below that line at its risk level, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.26. Sharpe is “return per unit of pain” — higher is better. The optimal mix of the same three ETFs would hit a Sharpe of 1.8, and even the minimum variance combo beats you at 1.61. Translation: with literally the same ingredients, just in different proportions, this could be noticeably more efficient. Right now, it’s like running a good engine slightly out of tune on purpose.
Ongoing product costs
- iShares Edge MSCI EM Value Factor UCITS ETF USD (Acc) USD 0.40%
- iShares Edge MSCI Europe Momentum Factor UCITS ETF EUR (Acc) 0.25%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.09%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio doesn’t self-sabotage. A total TER of 0.09% is impressively low, especially considering you’ve sprinkled in factor funds that usually charge more. The EM value fund at 0.40% and Europe momentum at 0.25% are on the pricier side, but the huge 70% chunk in the cheap S&P 500 ETF drags the blended cost down nicely. Fees are under control — you must have clicked the right core ETF on a good day. At least here, the portfolio isn’t lighting money on fire just to track broad markets with fancy names.
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