The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
This portfolio is predominantly composed of ETFs, with a significant allocation towards the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and a notable position in BTCI, which is unique due to its high dividend yield. The inclusion of specialized income ETFs like the NEOS Nasdaq 100 High Income ETF and the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF suggests a strategy aimed at generating income through dividends while also seeking capital appreciation. The Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares and the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF diversify the portfolio further, albeit modestly, into real estate and dividend-paying stocks.
With a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 27.38% and a maximum drawdown of -19.44%, the portfolio has demonstrated strong growth potential alongside notable volatility. The days contributing to 90% of returns being limited to just six indicates that the portfolio's performance is highly concentrated in a few significant positive movements, underscoring the importance of timing and market conditions in its overall success.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to forecast a range of potential future outcomes, suggest a broad spectrum of possibilities for this portfolio, from a 5th percentile outcome of 160.3% to a 67th percentile outcome of 1,399.7%. With 998 out of 1,000 simulations yielding positive returns, the analysis points to a high likelihood of future profitability, although it's important to remember that these projections cannot guarantee future performance.
The asset class distribution shows a heavy emphasis on stocks (71%), with a smaller allocation to real estate (7%) and a significant cash position (22%). This composition indicates a growth-oriented strategy with a modest hedge against market volatility through real estate investments and liquidity maintained in cash.
Sector allocation is diverse, with the highest exposure in technology (24%), followed by real estate (8%) and an even spread across communication services, consumer cyclicals, financial services, and healthcare. This sector diversity helps mitigate risks associated with sector-specific downturns, although the technology concentration may increase volatility.
Geographically, the portfolio is heavily weighted towards North America (71%), with no exposure to developed Europe, Latin America, or Asia. This focus on North American assets may limit global diversification benefits but reflects a strategy aligned with seeking growth in more familiar markets.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for larger companies (Mega 30%, Big 25%), with lesser exposure to medium, small, and micro-cap stocks. This bias towards larger companies typically means less volatility but may also limit potential for outsized gains from smaller, high-growth firms.
The high correlation observed among the NEOS Nasdaq 100 High Income ETF, SHP ETF Trust - NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF, and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF indicates a redundancy that may not contribute significantly to diversification. Reducing overlap could enhance the portfolio's efficiency by lowering risk without sacrificing expected returns.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Optimizing this portfolio involves addressing the high correlation among certain ETFs to improve diversification. By reallocating funds from overlapping assets to underrepresented sectors, regions, or asset classes, the portfolio can achieve a better risk-return profile, moving closer to the Efficient Frontier, where each unit of risk is optimized for maximum return.
The portfolio's focus on high dividend yields, with a total yield of 9.30%, suggests an income-generating strategy. This approach can provide a steady income stream, which is particularly appealing in volatile or bear markets, though it's important to balance the pursuit of high yields with the underlying risk of the assets generating those dividends.
The Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.20% is relatively low, enhancing the portfolio's attractiveness by minimizing the drag on returns caused by fees. The individual expense ratios range from 0.03% for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF to 0.68% for the NEOS ETFs, indicating a cost-effective selection of funds, especially given the specialized nature of some of the ETFs.
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