Concentrated US growth portfolio with strong tech tilt and historically high returns but limited diversification
Report created on Aug 24, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 60.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
SCHG - US8085243009 30.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 10.00%
This portfolio is simple and very growth-focused, with three US stock ETFs making up 100% of holdings. Around two‑thirds sits in a broad total US stock market fund, almost one‑third in a large‑cap growth ETF, and the remaining slice in a semiconductor ETF. Structurally, that means a “core and satellites” setup: one diversified core holding plus two growth‑tilted add‑ons. This matters because most of the portfolio’s behaviour will be driven by US equities, and especially by growth companies embedded in all three funds. The structure lines up with the growth risk label and low diversification score: it’s built to ride stock market ups and downs rather than smooth them out with other asset types.
Growth
From 2016 to 2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $5,907, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.54%. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, showing how fast wealth has grown each year on average. Over the same period, the US market returned 15.39% and the global market 12.74%, so this portfolio outpaced both quite clearly. The worst drop, or max drawdown, was about -34%, very similar to the benchmarks. That combination—higher long‑term growth with comparable big drawdowns—shows a payoff for taking concentrated equity and growth exposure, but also underlines that sharp falls are still very much part of the ride.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection looks forward 15 years by simulating many possible future paths based on past returns and volatility. Think of it as running 1,000 alternate timelines using the historical pattern as raw material. The median outcome turns $1,000 into around $2,817, with a wide “likely” range from about $1,870 to $4,332. In the more extreme 5–95% band, the end value ranges from roughly $928 to $7,679. The average annual return across all simulations is about 8.21%. These numbers illustrate possible outcomes, not promises; markets rarely repeat the past exactly, so the projection is a guide to the range of uncertainty, not a forecast.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternative assets. Asset classes are broad groups like equities, bonds, and real estate that react differently to economic conditions. Being 100% in stocks typically means stronger participation in long‑term growth but more pronounced swings day to day and during market corrections. Compared with a more mixed asset allocation, this all‑equity stance offers little natural downside cushioning from safer assets. The growth risk score of 5/7 lines up with that: it’s aggressively positioned for return potential, and any declines in stock markets feed directly through to the portfolio’s value without much dampening.
Sectors
- Technology 45%
- Financials 10%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Health Care 9%
- Industrials 8%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Energy 2%
- Real Estate 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio leans heavily into technology at about 45%, with the rest spread across financials, telecoms, consumer‑related areas, health care, industrials, and smaller slices in other sectors. A very large tech allocation is above broad market norms, especially given the added semiconductor ETF, which intensifies this tilt. Sector concentration matters because different parts of the economy lead or lag at different times. Tech‑heavy portfolios often do well when growth expectations and innovation stories are strong, but can be more sensitive when interest rates rise or sentiment turns against high‑growth companies. The remaining sector spread does help, but tech is clearly the main driver here.
Regions
- North America 98%
- Asia Developed 1%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, about 98% of the portfolio sits in North America, with only tiny exposure to Europe and developed Asia. Geography measures where the underlying companies are listed or based, which affects currency exposure, regulation, and local economic influences. Relative to global equity benchmarks, this is a strong home‑country tilt toward the US. This alignment has historically helped during long stretches when US markets outperformed the rest of the world, as seen in the performance numbers. The flip side is that results are highly tied to one region and one currency, so if US stocks lag other areas for an extended period, that concentration would be felt quite directly.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 46%
- Large-cap 31%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 4%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio is anchored in larger companies: roughly 46% in mega‑caps, 31% in large‑caps, and the rest spread across mid, small, and micro‑caps. Market cap simply reflects company size on the stock market. Larger firms tend to be more established and less volatile, while smaller companies can be more volatile but sometimes grow faster. This mix leans somewhat toward the big end compared with a pure small‑cap focus, which is typical for total‑market and large‑growth ETFs. It means much of the portfolio’s movement will track big, familiar names, with smaller positions adding some extra dynamism and diversification around the edges.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 9.31%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 6.47%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 5.01%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.72%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.30%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.95%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.36%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.77%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
LL Eli Lilly and Company 1.71%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.29%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 37.89%
Looking through ETF top holdings, a handful of large US companies dominate underlying exposure. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Broadcom, Alphabet (both share classes), Meta, Eli Lilly, and AMD together make up a meaningful slice of the portfolio. Several of these appear across multiple ETFs, creating overlap that amplifies exposure to them beyond any single fund’s weight. Because only ETF top‑10 positions are captured, overall overlap is likely understated. This kind of concentration in a small group of big names can strongly influence returns—both positive and negative—and helps explain why performance has been so tied to the strength of major US growth and tech firms in recent years.
Factors
Factor exposures are mostly neutral, meaning the portfolio broadly resembles the market on traits like size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility. Factors are like investing “ingredients” that describe common patterns in returns, such as how cheap a stock is (value) or how stable its earnings are (quality). The one notable tilt is lower value exposure at 39%, a mild lean away from cheaper, more value‑oriented companies and toward growth‑oriented ones. This aligns with the sector and holdings picture: growth and tech dominate. Such a tilt can help when growth styles lead the market, but may lag during periods when cheaper, more value‑driven stocks take the spotlight.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 60.00% 53.9% -
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Weight: 30.00% 31.6% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 10.00% 14.6%
Risk contribution shows how much each ETF adds to the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. Here, the total market fund is 60% of the portfolio but contributes about 54% of the risk, slightly less than its weight because it’s broad and diversified. The large‑cap growth ETF is roughly aligned, with risk contribution close to its 30% weight. The semiconductor ETF stands out: at only 10% weight, it contributes about 14.5% of the risk, reflecting its higher volatility. This illustrates how a relatively small allocation to a concentrated, volatile segment can punch above its weight in driving overall portfolio swings.
Redundant positions
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High correlationVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF SharesSchwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
The correlation data shows the large‑cap growth ETF and the total US market ETF move almost identically. Correlation measures how often and how closely assets move together, on a scale from -1 to 1. When two holdings are highly correlated, they tend to rise and fall at the same time, limiting diversification benefits between them. In this case, the growth ETF essentially layers more exposure to a similar part of the market already represented in the total market fund, just with a more growth‑tilted mix. That reinforces the portfolio’s growth profile rather than smoothing its ride with assets that behave differently in various market conditions.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk‑return chart, the current portfolio sits on or very close to the efficient frontier. The efficient frontier represents the best possible trade‑offs between risk (volatility) and return using only these three ETFs in different weightings. Being on the curve suggests that, given these specific building blocks, the allocation is already using them in a risk‑efficient way. The Sharpe ratio of 0.73, which measures return per unit of risk above the risk‑free rate, is lower than the maximum possible Sharpe of 1.02 but still reasonable for the chosen risk level. Overall, this indicates a structurally efficient growth setup, not an obviously unbalanced one.
Dividends
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.74%
The overall dividend yield is about 0.74%, with the total market ETF paying around 1.0% and the growth and semiconductor ETFs yielding less. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout from holdings as a percentage of the portfolio value, like interest on a savings account but not guaranteed. Here, income plays a relatively minor role, which is typical for growth‑oriented and tech‑heavy portfolios: companies often reinvest profits rather than distribute them. This structure means total return is expected to come mainly from price movement rather than regular cash flow, aligning with the portfolio’s emphasis on capital appreciation over ongoing income.
Ongoing product costs
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
Portfolio costs are very low, with a weighted total expense ratio (TER) of about 0.06%. TER is the annual fee charged by funds to cover management and operating costs, taken directly from fund assets. The broad market and large‑cap growth ETFs are especially inexpensive, and even the more specialized semiconductor ETF remains reasonable. Low costs are a quiet but important advantage: every dollar not spent on fees stays invested and can compound over time. Relative to many actively managed or higher‑fee options, this cost structure is impressively lean and supports better long‑term outcomes given the chosen risk and return profile.
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