Portfolio report
Two index funds one personality and a mild case of performance FOMO
Report created on Oct 2, 2026The briefing
What stands out
This whole setup is basically “own the world and hope it behaves,” with 100% in stocks and zero safety net. If the next crash looks anything like 2020 or worse, the drawdowns won’t be subtle. Might be worth deciding how much equity whiplash is actually …
The performance gap vs the US market shows the cost of insisting on global diversification when the home team is winning. You’re effectively dragging slower regions along for the ride. If that’s intentional, fine – just don’t pretend this mix was designed to beat a …
Under the hood, a tiny group of megacap names drive a lot of the story. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and friends are sitting in both funds, even if overlap stats understate it. If those giants ever take a long nap, the portfolio comes down …
Highlights from the assessment. Explore the analysis below for context and assumptions.
Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
4/5
The starting point
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 50.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 50.00%
This “portfolio” is basically the financial version of a bowl of plain oatmeal: half total US stock market and half total international. That’s it. No seasoning no toppings no creativity. Structurally it’s extremely clean but also completely binary – everything hangs on global equities rising over time. There’s no ballast no side quest no weird satellite bets. It’s textbook lazy but in a slightly smug way. The balanced-risk label is generous though; with 100% stocks this is emotionally more “hold on and scream” than “balanced.” The good news: simplicity means fewer ways to screw it up. The bad news: when stocks tank there’s nowhere in here to hide.
Growth
Historically this thing did just fine but not exactly “victory lap” material. Turning $1,000 into $3,175 over the period isn’t bad at all, yet the US market alone walked ahead with a 15.39% CAGR while you cruised at 12.29%. That’s like insisting on dragging the slower kid in a relay because “diversification.” Versus the global market you basically hugged it, underperforming by a tiny 0.27% a year. Max drawdown at -34% shows the usual equity crash profile: elevator down, stairs back up, about five months to recover. Past performance is yesterday’s weather forecast: helpful, but the next storm doesn’t care how you handled 2020.
Drawdowns
- Worst fall 02/12/2020 – 03/23/2020 -34.4%
- Time from the high to the bottom 40 days
- Time back to the previous high 08/25/2020 155 days
- Today, below the last high -2.7%
- Worst fall, US Market -33.7%
- Worst fall, Global Market -33.5%
Benchmarks over the same dates, for reference only.
Worst falls
- 02/12/2020 – 03/23/2020 Back at the high after 195 days -34.4%
- 11/08/2021 – 10/12/2022 Back at the high after 812 days -26.5%
- 01/26/2018 – 12/24/2018 Back at the high after 640 days -20.0%
- 02/18/2025 – 04/08/2025 Back at the high after 90 days -16.6%
- 02/25/2026 – 03/30/2026 Back at the high after 49 days -9.6%
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation is the statistical version of “let’s imagine a thousand alternate timelines and see what happens.” It throws random but realistic return paths at the portfolio to see how it might behave. Median outcome of $2,838 after 15 years is solid, but nowhere near the fantasy-compounding people quote on social media. The range is what matters: $1,016 to $8,352 between pessimistic and optimistic scenarios is basically saying “anything from barely ahead of inflation to pleasantly rich is on the table.” Roughly three-quarters of paths end positive, which is decent, but every path includes real gut-punch drawdowns. Simulations aren’t prophecy; they’re more like stress tests for expectations.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes here are simple: 100% stocks, zero of anything else. It’s like building a house entirely out of glass and being proud of the light while ignoring hail season. No bonds, no cash buffer, no diversifying real assets – just one big equity bet wrapped in two tickers. For a portfolio wearing a “balanced” badge, this is basically all-gas-no-brake. Stocks are great growth engines, but they’re also moody, and having nothing smoother in the mix means every market tantrum translates directly into portfolio drama. The upside is clarity: if performance is bad, there’s nobody else to blame. The downside: drawdowns can get very personal very quickly.
Sectors
- Technology 28%
- Financials 18%
- Industrials 12%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Basic Materials 5%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this is a slightly nerdy popularity contest. Tech chugs almost a third of the portfolio, which is very on-brand for modern cap-weighted indexes: “We like growth, volatility, and vibes.” Financials and industrials round things out, but they’re clearly backup dancers, not leads. Lower slices in utilities and real estate show there’s barely any sleep-at-night defensiveness baked in. This isn’t a laser-focused sector gamble, but it’s still leaning heavily into whatever the global market is obsessed with right now. When tech does well, the portfolio looks clever; when tech sulks, the whole thing catches the mood. That’s the joy and pain of letting the index decide your sector bets.
Regions
- North America 54%
- Europe Developed 18%
- Asia Developed 9%
- Japan 8%
- Asia Emerging 6%
- Australasia 2%
- Africa/Middle East 2%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this is a rare case where the “America or bust” instinct is actually toned down a bit. About 54% in North America with the rest scattered sensibly across Europe, Japan, developed Asia, and a small sprinkle of emerging markets. For a two-fund setup this is surprisingly global – not just US maximalism with a souvenir ETF. The flip side: the portfolio is still chained to whatever the world’s public equity markets collectively decide to do. There’s no intentional regional tilt here, just blind obedience to market size. If one region massively underperforms for a decade, congratulations, you’re staying strapped in because the index says so.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 43%
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 18%
- Small-cap 5%
- Micro-cap 1%
The market cap spread is almost a carbon copy of the global equity market itself: big love for mega- and large-caps, with mid caps getting a participation trophy and small/micro caps tossed a consolation 6%. This isn’t a small-cap daredevil portfolio or a mega-cap cult – it’s just “whatever the global market looks like today.” That means the narrative is heavily driven by giant companies; the smaller stuff barely whispers in the background. When the giants lead, everything feels efficient and sophisticated. When the giants lag, the portfolio still follows them loyally, dragging along a token handful of little guys who are too small to really change the story.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.44%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 3.15%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.55%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 1.99%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.70%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.35%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.19%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.06%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
SS Samsung Electronics Co Ltd 0.95%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 0.85%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 18.23%
Under the hood, the usual suspects are running the show. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, TSMC, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Samsung, Meta – basically the global tech-and-megacap Avengers. Even with only top-10 ETF data, it’s clear a lot of the portfolio’s fate rests on a tiny group of huge companies, duplicated across both funds. Overlap is definitely understated here, so real concentration in these names is higher than it looks. This is the classic index paradox: marketed as ultra-diversified, yet performance is secretly dictated by a couple dozen megacaps doing the heavy lifting while thousands of other holdings quietly occupy space and collect dust in the background.
Factors
Factor-wise, this thing is aggressively average – in a good way. Value, size, momentum, quality, and yield all sit basically neutral, like the portfolio showed up to the factor party in a gray T-shirt. The one real nudge is toward low volatility at 62%, meaning the mix leans slightly toward stocks that historically wiggle a bit less. Factor exposure is just the hidden recipe behind returns – these are the traits that explain why things move the way they do. Here the recipe is boringly sensible: no wild bet on junky high-yield names, no manic momentum tilt, no tiny-stock obsession. It’s a rare case of “accidentally balanced.”
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 50.00% 52.0% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 50.00% 48.0%
Risk contribution is where the illusion of choice fully collapses: two positions, 100% of the risk. The US and international funds split both weight and risk almost evenly, so each one is pulling its fair share of emotional turbulence. Nothing sneaky is punching above its weight; there is literally nowhere else for risk to hide. That 50% international sleeve is doing almost the same amount of work as the US one despite slightly lower long-term returns so far. Risk/weight ratios are close to 1, which is about as straightforward as it gets. If the portfolio misbehaves, there are only two suspects and both have airtight alibis called “global equity markets.”
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk vs. return chart, this portfolio actually behaves itself. It sits on or very near the efficient frontier, meaning that for the given ingredients, the current 50/50 mix is using them about as smartly as possible. The Sharpe ratio of 0.52 is lower than the frontier’s best of 0.79, but that “optimal” point takes on a bit more risk and return than this setup currently chooses. Minimum variance would shave risk only slightly while also shaving return. Net result: not much obvious free lunch hiding here. For a portfolio made of exactly two building blocks, it’s annoyingly competent from an efficiency standpoint. You basically stumbled into a mathematically reasonable allocation.
Dividends
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.40%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.75%
Dividend yield at 1.75% is the quiet background hum of this portfolio – not nothing, but not paying anyone’s bills either. The international sleeve pulls more weight on yield than the US one, which is textbook for how global equities usually behave. This is clearly a growth-and-total-return setup, not a cash-flow generator. Relying on this for income would feel like trying to live off the interest from a checking account: technically present, practically disappointing. The upside is you’re not chasing high-yield traps or stuffing the portfolio with slow, stodgy names purely for payouts. Dividends here are just a side effect, not the main point of the exercise.
Ongoing product costs
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Costs are where this portfolio quietly flexes. A total expense ratio of 0.04% is basically couch-cushion money – you spend more by accident when you tip 20% on a coffee. The funds are doing global heavy lifting for almost free, which makes paying higher fees elsewhere look slightly embarrassing. Costs won’t make a boring portfolio exciting, but they absolutely decide how much of the returns you actually keep. Here, you’re not feeding middlemen; you’re just riding the market. It’s almost suspiciously sensible: two ultra-cheap broad funds, no expensive “smart beta” gimmicks, and no closet-active nonsense pretending to be special while charging steakhouse prices.
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