Momentum junkie with a value side quest and a secret crush on the same mega caps
Report created on Jun 15, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 30.00% -
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 30.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00%
This portfolio looks like someone mashed together a quant backtest and a Boglehead forum thread and called it a day. Half the money is in plain-vanilla S&P 500 exposure, the other half is in small-cap value factor experiments. The structure screams “I read factor books” but then doubles down on the S&P anyway, which pretty much waters down the whole small-cap value adventure. It’s concentrated in exactly four funds, so it’s “simple,” but also a bit of a one-trick pony: public equities in different costumes. The overall vibe is: aggressive equity nerd, but slightly scared of fully committing to the nerd part.
Growth
One or more local-currency benchmark funds are unavailable for this report.
Historically, this thing has absolutely flown: 18.48% CAGR versus about 13.76% for the global market, turning $1,000 into $3,112. That’s alpha cosplay that actually worked — at least so far. The catch: max drawdown hit -36.6%, worse than the benchmark’s roughly -33.5%. So when markets fell, this fell harder, then flexed on the rebound. CAGR is like your average speed on a road trip; drawdown is how far the speedometer dropped when you hit the ditch. Past data is yesterday’s weather, though — it explains the mess, not the next storm.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation basically says, “Congrats, you built a roller coaster, not a savings account.” Monte Carlo just runs thousands of alternate futures using past-like randomness to see what might happen. Median outcome takes $1,000 to about $2,738 in 15 years, with a wide range from roughly $1,011 to $7,666. Translation: outcomes span from “just kept up with inflation” to “bragging rights forever.” The average annualized simulated return drops to about 7.96%, miles below the historical 18% party. So the model is politely tapping the brakes on your expectations while still admitting this portfolio probably beats cash most of the time.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset-class breakdown is hilariously simple: 100% stocks, 0% anything else. This isn’t an asset allocation; it’s a bet that public equities will sort everything out eventually. No bonds, no real diversifiers, nothing to hold the emotional line when volatility spikes. It’s like building a house out of only glass because “glass has been strong lately.” When the stock market sneezes, this portfolio catches pneumonia. That can pay off long-term, but it also means the ride will be loud, shaky, and occasionally terrifying, with no built-in shock absorbers.
Sectors
- Technology 30%
- Industrials 13%
- Financials 13%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Energy 7%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Basic Materials 6%
- Health Care 6%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, technology at 30% leads the show, with industrials and financials at 13% each trying to look important. This allegedly factor-savvy portfolio still ends up worshipping at the altar of Big Tech, just like every generic index investor. The smaller allocations to energy, telco, materials, and health care help a bit, but tech is clearly the main character. That means a lot of the fate here is tied to whether the current tech-and-chip mania ages gracefully or turns into another “remember 2000?” story. For a factor portfolio, it leans suspiciously close to the same growthy sector bets as everyone else.
Regions
- North America 82%
- Europe Developed 8%
- Japan 7%
- Australasia 2%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Asia Developed 1%
Geographically, this thing is basically “USA and a few tourist tokens.” Around 82% in North America says home bias is alive and well. Europe Developed at 8% and Japan at 7% show up like pity invites, while the rest of the world gets crumbs. This isn’t so much global diversification as it is a U.S. portfolio with an accent. If the U.S. continues to dominate, that looks smart; if leadership rotates elsewhere, this looks like missed opportunity baked into code. It’s an America-centric worldview wrapped in ETFs with just enough foreign exposure to claim otherwise.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 26%
- Mega-cap 26%
- Mid-cap 20%
- Small-cap 18%
- Micro-cap 11%
Market cap exposure actually looks like someone tried to be interesting for once: about half in large/mega caps, the rest spread across mid, small, and even micro caps at 11%. So under the hood, this isn’t just a mega-cap popularity contest; there’s a chunk of tiny, wobbly companies that can move like meme stocks on bad news. That mix can supercharge returns when smaller names are in favor, but it also injects extra drama into drawdowns. It’s basically pairing a blue-chip wardrobe with a secret stash of high-volatility side bets and pretending it’s all “just diversified.”
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.81%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 3.30%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.92%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.44%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.95%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 1.94%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.47%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.26%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 1.22%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 1.21%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 22.51%
The look-through holdings scream hidden concentration. NVIDIA at 4.81% total exposure is the unofficial co-manager here, with Micron, Broadcom, Alphabet (both share classes), Apple, and Microsoft all stacked on top. That’s the fun part of owning both broad S&P and momentum: you pretend they’re different, then discover they’re all just shoving the same mega caps at you with slightly different marketing. And remember, this overlap is based only on ETF top 10s, so the real duplication is almost certainly worse. It’s less a diversified basket of ideas and more a carefully curated shrine to the current U.S. tech royalty.
Factors
Factor exposure is where the personality really shows: value comes in at 65%, a clear tilt toward “cheap-ish” stocks compared with the market. The rest — size, momentum, quality, low vol, and yield — all hover around neutral. So despite the flashy momentum ETF, the overall portfolio leans more value-nerd than trend-chaser. It’s like wearing a “Growth is dead” shirt while still sneaking into the momentum party through the side door. That value tilt tends to do well when hype deflates and fundamentals matter again, but can lag badly when markets fall in love with expensive darlings and refuse to let go.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 30.00% 30.3% -
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 30.00% 28.6% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 24.4% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 16.8%
Risk contribution exposes who’s actually driving the chaos. The S&P 500 Momentum ETF at 30% weight contributes about 30.25% of total risk — exactly as spicy as it looks. The plain S&P 500 also pulls its weight at 28.64%. The quiet troublemaker is the U.S. Small Cap Value ETF: only 20% by weight but a 24.36% risk contribution, punching above its size with a risk/weight of 1.22. That’s the kid starting bar fights while pretending to be shy. The international small value is the tamest of the bunch. So three holdings account for over 83% of risk, no matter how balanced the weights look.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, this portfolio is straight-up leaving money on the table. With a Sharpe ratio of 0.75, it’s clearly below the efficient frontier by about 2.14 percentage points of return at its current risk level. Sharpe is basically “return per unit of pain,” and your current mix is accepting plenty of pain without squeezing the most juice out of it. The kicker: both the max-Sharpe and minimum-variance portfolios use the same ingredients, just rearranged more intelligently. So this isn’t a product problem; it’s a proportions problem — like making a decent cocktail but pouring the booze and mixer in weird, suboptimal ratios.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 4.10%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.60%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.68%
Yield at 1.68% is firmly in the “don’t quit your day job” category. The international small value fund is doing the heavy lifting at 4.1%, while the momentum sleeve dribbles out a token 0.7%. This portfolio is obviously built for total return, not for living off payouts — which is fine, but it means dividends aren’t here to save you in a drawdown. They’re more like loose change in the couch while you’re mostly betting on capital appreciation. Anyone calling this an “income strategy” would be aggressively overselling what is, in reality, a growth engine with a light dividend sprinkle.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.17%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio quietly nails it. A total TER of 0.17% is impressively low for a setup that includes smart-beta factor funds and not just plain market cap indexes. The Vanguard S&P at 0.03% is basically free, and even the Avantis funds are reasonably priced for what they claim to do. Fees aren’t the villain here; if anything, they’re the only part of the portfolio behaving like a mature adult. You’re not paying first-class fares to sit in coach — at least the ticket price matches the seat this time.
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