This portfolio is heavily weighted towards two ETFs, with a dominant 87.97% in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and 12.03% in the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF. This composition suggests a strong focus on growth, leveraging the broad market exposure of the S&P 500 alongside the momentum strategy of the iShares ETF. However, the portfolio's diversification is low, concentrating almost entirely on the US stock market with a singular asset class focus.
Historically, the portfolio has achieved a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.66%, with a maximum drawdown of -34.04%. This performance indicates robust growth potential but also highlights significant volatility, as evidenced by the substantial drawdown. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in just 32.0 days underscores the portfolio's exposure to sharp, short-term market movements.
Monte Carlo simulations, using historical data to forecast future outcomes, show a wide range of potential performances. With key percentiles indicating a 5th percentile outcome at an 86.3% increase and a 67th percentile outcome at an 803.3% increase, the simulations underscore the portfolio's high growth potential. However, the reliance on past performance must be tempered with caution, as it does not guarantee future results.
The portfolio's allocation is entirely in stocks, with no diversification into other asset classes such as bonds or real estate. This allocation supports the portfolio's growth orientation but increases its susceptibility to market volatility. A more diversified asset class mix could provide a buffer during stock market downturns.
Sector allocation shows a heavy emphasis on technology, financial services, and consumer cyclicals, which are sectors often associated with higher growth but also higher volatility. This concentration could amplify both gains and losses, depending on sector-specific developments.
Geographically, the portfolio is almost exclusively invested in North America, with a 99% allocation. This focus on a single region can expose the portfolio to country-specific risks, such as regulatory changes or economic downturns, and misses out on potential growth opportunities in other global markets.
The portfolio's market capitalization breakdown—46% mega, 36% big, 17% medium, and 1% small—indicates a preference for larger, more established companies. This tilt towards larger caps can offer stability but may limit exposure to the higher growth potential of smaller companies.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the portfolio's current allocation, there's potential for optimization towards the Efficient Frontier, aiming for the best possible risk-return ratio. Adjusting the asset allocation could enhance diversification and reduce volatility without significantly compromising growth potential, moving the portfolio closer to an optimal balance.
The dividend yields of 0.90% for the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF and 1.20% for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF contribute to the portfolio's total yield of 1.16%. While not the primary focus, these dividends can provide a steady income stream and help mitigate some volatility.
With total portfolio costs averaging 0.04%, the portfolio benefits from low expense ratios, enhancing long-term return potential. Lower costs are crucial for maximizing investment growth, especially in a portfolio focused on index and momentum strategies.
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