A concentrated us stock portfolio with strong growth tilt and meaningful single company risk

Report created on Aug 19, 2024

Risk profile Info

5/7
Growth
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

2/5
Low Diversity
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is 100 percent in stocks, with 25 percent in a broad S&P 500 ETF and 75 percent in individual US companies. That’s a much bigger single‑stock tilt than a typical growth benchmark, which usually holds most exposure through diversified funds. This matters because broad ETFs spread risk across many businesses, while big positions in a few names can swing the portfolio a lot. The current setup leans heavily on a handful of winners and sector tilts. If smoother returns are a goal, shifting some single‑stock weights into broad, low‑cost funds could keep the growth focus while dialing down company‑specific shocks.

Growth Info

Historically, this mix has been a rocket ship: a 31.68 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) means 1,000 dollars could have grown to roughly 25,000 dollars over ten years if that pace persisted. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing all bumps. But the max drawdown near minus 47 percent shows that at one point, the portfolio almost halved in value, which is a big emotional stress test. This pattern—huge upside with deep drops—fits a high‑octane growth style. It’s worth asking whether that level of volatility feels livable and, if not, slowly nudging toward more balance.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo analysis used 1,000 simulations to project possible futures by shuffling historical return patterns. Think of it like running thousands of alternate timelines to see a range of outcomes. The median result (about 2,560 percent total growth) is extremely high, but that’s based on past returns that may not repeat, especially for star performers. The 5th percentile at 54 percent total growth shows there’s still downside risk to lower‑than‑hoped outcomes. Because Monte Carlo assumes that past volatility and patterns roughly continue, it can be overly optimistic after an unusually strong run. Treat these numbers as rough guideposts, not promises, and check whether expectations are realistic.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

All assets here are in one class: stocks. That’s simple and very growth‑oriented, but it’s also why the diversification score is low. When markets fall, there’s no built‑in buffer from bonds, cash, or other assets that often move differently. Broad benchmarks for growth investors usually include at least some defensive assets to soften big drops. Sticking with 100 percent stocks is perfectly valid for a long horizon and strong stomach, but it does mean accepting sharper swings. If capital preservation during crashes is important, gradually adding a small slice of more stable assets over time could make drawdowns less painful without fully abandoning the growth bias.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    29%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    13%
  • Health Care
    12%
  • Industrials
    12%
  • Financials
    8%
  • Consumer Staples
    6%
  • Energy
    6%
  • Utilities
    6%
  • Real Estate
    5%
  • Telecommunications
    3%

Sector exposure is tilted but not extreme: about 29 percent in technology, then meaningful stakes in consumer cyclicals, healthcare, industrials, and smaller allocations in financials, defensive areas, utilities, energy, real estate, and communications. This is actually fairly broad and generally lines up with many US benchmarks, which is a strong indicator of healthy sector diversification. The difference is that much of that sector exposure comes from a few big names like Apple, NVIDIA, and Tesla. Tech‑heavy and cyclically tilted setups can shine in low‑rate, growthy environments, but they typically wobble more when rates rise or sentiment turns. Spreading sector exposure via more broad funds could keep the theme while lowering stock‑specific shocks.

Regions Info

  • North America
    100%

Geographically, everything is tied to North America, mainly the US. That lines up well with a US‑based investor’s home bias and is similar to many domestic benchmarks, which often lean heavily US anyway. This alignment is a positive: it keeps currency risk simple and focuses on the world’s deepest, most liquid market. The flip side is missing out on potential growth or diversification from other regions. Global markets don’t move in perfect sync, so adding even a modest slice of international exposure can sometimes reduce overall volatility. Keeping a strong US core while gradually layering a small global component could broaden opportunity without overcomplicating things.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    57%
  • Large-cap
    39%
  • Mid-cap
    4%

Market cap exposure is dominated by mega caps (57 percent) and big caps (39 percent), with only 4 percent in mid caps and effectively none in small caps. That’s very similar to how major US indexes look, which is reassuring: it means most of the money is in large, established businesses that tend to be more liquid and better covered by analysts. This setup supports stability relative to a small‑cap‑heavy portfolio, even though overall risk is still high due to stock concentration. If extra diversification is desired, boosting exposure through broad funds that include more mid and small companies can gently spread risk while keeping the large‑cap core intact.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

From a risk‑return angle, this portfolio likely sits below the theoretical “Efficient Frontier,” which is the set of mixes that offer the best possible return for each level of volatility using only the existing components. Efficiency in this context just means getting the most expected return per unit of risk, not maximizing diversification or meeting every personal goal. Because of the heavy single‑stock tilts, especially to high‑volatility growth names, there’s probably room to move closer to the efficient line by dialing down a few large positions and reallocating into the broad ETF or other lower‑volatility holdings already present. That can preserve much of the growth potential while smoothing the ride.

Dividends Info

  • Apple Inc 0.40%
  • AbbVie Inc 2.90%
  • Bank of America Corp 1.40%
  • Carpenter Technology Corporation 0.20%
  • Diamondback Energy Inc 2.60%
  • Nextera Energy Inc 2.80%
  • Realty Income Corporation 5.50%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
  • Waste Management Inc 1.10%
  • Walmart Inc 0.60%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.32%

The overall dividend yield sits around 1.32 percent, which is modest and typical for a growth‑focused, US‑heavy equity mix. Yields come mainly from AbbVie, Diamondback, NextEra, Realty Income, and the S&P 500 ETF, with Realty Income notably high. Dividends can act like a small “paycheck” from investments, useful for reinvestment or, later, for income. But in a growth profile, most of the return is expected from price appreciation rather than payouts. This yield profile fits that story well. If future income becomes a bigger priority, shifting a bit toward higher‑yield, more stable payers could raise cash flow, though that usually means accepting slower potential price growth.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.01%

Portfolio costs are impressively low. The S&P 500 ETF charges only 0.03 percent, and the overall total expense ratio is about 0.01 percent thanks to individual stocks having no ongoing fund fee. Low costs are a quiet superpower: even a small difference compounds meaningfully over decades. This alignment with best practices is a big plus and supports better long‑term performance relative to high‑fee strategies. The main “cost” here isn’t fees but risk and concentration. As you think about tweaks, it makes sense to keep this low‑cost mindset and prefer broad, inexpensive vehicles whenever you add or replace positions, so any changes don’t erode this advantage.

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