This portfolio is heavily weighted towards the SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF, constituting over 90% of the total allocation, followed by a significant investment in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, and a minimal stake in the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares. This composition indicates a strong bias towards US equities, particularly within the technology sector, given the semiconductor ETF's focus. The diversification is low, with a heavy reliance on a single geographical market and sector.
Historically, the portfolio has shown a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.20%, with a maximum drawdown of -33.57%. These figures suggest a high growth potential, albeit with significant volatility, as indicated by the substantial drawdown. The days contributing to 90% of the returns being concentrated in just 34 days highlights the portfolio's susceptibility to short-term market movements, emphasizing the importance of timing in investment decisions for this portfolio.
Using Monte Carlo simulations, the portfolio's future performance varies widely, with a median potential increase of 700.8% and a 5th percentile scenario showing a 76.4% increase. This wide range of outcomes underscores the inherent uncertainty in market performance, particularly for portfolios with high concentration in specific sectors and geographies. The simulations suggest that while there's a high potential for growth, there's also significant risk involved.
The portfolio is entirely invested in stocks, with no allocation to cash, bonds, or other asset classes. This setup enhances growth potential but also increases risk, especially during market downturns when diversification across asset classes could mitigate losses. The absence of non-equity investments suggests a high risk tolerance but limits opportunities for risk management through diversification.
The sector allocation is heavily skewed towards technology, financial services, and consumer cyclicals, which are known for their growth potential but also for their volatility. This concentration in high-growth sectors aligns with the portfolio's growth objectives but could benefit from increased diversification to reduce sector-specific risks.
With 96% of assets allocated to North America, the portfolio exhibits a strong home bias, limiting exposure to potential growth in other regions. This geographic concentration enhances vulnerability to regional economic downturns and misses out on diversification benefits and growth opportunities in emerging markets and other developed economies.
The focus on mega and big-cap companies suggests a preference for established, less volatile stocks, which can provide stability and consistent returns. However, the limited exposure to medium, small, and micro-cap stocks restricts potential high-growth opportunities these segments may offer, albeit with higher risk.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the portfolio's current composition and risk profile, optimizing for the Efficient Frontier could involve diversifying across more asset classes and geographies. This strategy aims to achieve a better risk-return ratio by adjusting the allocation between the existing assets, potentially enhancing returns for the same level of risk or reducing risk for the same expected returns.
The overall dividend yield of the portfolio stands at 1.18%, with the highest yield coming from the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares. While dividends contribute to the portfolio's total return, the primary focus remains on capital appreciation. Investors relying on income may seek a higher dividend yield through diversified income-generating assets.
The portfolio benefits from relatively low costs, with a total expense ratio (TER) of 0.04%. This efficient cost structure supports better net returns over the long term. Lower costs are particularly beneficial in growth-oriented portfolios where the focus is on maximizing capital appreciation.
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