Tech tilted US growth portfolio with strong recent returns and concentrated risk in a few themes
Report created on May 9, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 30.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 25.00% -
SO iShares Semiconductor ETF
SOXX - US4642875235 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 15.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
SCHD - US8085247976 10.00%
This portfolio is a concentrated all‑equity mix built from five US‑listed ETFs, with no bonds or cash. About half the allocation sits in broad US stock exposure through a total market ETF and a large‑cap growth index, while the other half targets specific themes: semiconductors, US small‑cap value, and high‑dividend US stocks. That structure blends broad “own the market” exposure with some focused tilts toward tech, smaller companies, and dividend payers. A composition like this typically aims for higher growth, accepting larger ups and downs along the way. With only five positions and a low diversification score, the overall behavior is heavily shaped by those big, concentrated building blocks rather than a long list of smaller holdings.
Growth
From late 2020 to early May 2026, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $2,829. That works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.62%, meaning the value has risen on average around 20.6% per year, like calculating average speed over a long trip. Over the same period, the US market proxy gained 15.78% a year and the global market 13.66%, so this mix clearly outpaced both. The trade‑off is the -29.08% maximum drawdown, a sizable temporary drop from peak to trough. The fact that 90% of returns came from just 30 days also shows results were driven by a small number of very strong sessions.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses historical return and volatility patterns to simulate many possible 15‑year paths, a bit like running 1,000 “what if” futures based on past behavior. Across these simulations a $1,000 starting amount ends at a median of about $2,778, with a wide “likely” band between roughly $1,791 and $4,159. The overall average annualized return across runs is 8.11%, with about a 73% chance of finishing positive. That spread illustrates how uncertain long‑term outcomes can be, even for a historically strong portfolio. Simulations rely on past data and assume the return and risk profile doesn’t fundamentally change, so they’re helpful for framing ranges, not predicting a single precise result.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternative assets. Stocks historically offer higher growth potential than bonds but also sharper swings, especially over shorter periods. In many broad benchmarks, bonds and cash can provide some cushioning during equity downturns. Here, the lack of other asset classes means there’s no built‑in ballast if stock markets fall; the portfolio will generally move with equity cycles, just amplified by its particular sector and style tilts. On the flip side, an all‑equity mix fully participates in equity recoveries and strong bull markets, as the historic outperformance versus both US and global benchmarks illustrates.
Sectors
- Technology 47%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Financials 8%
- Health Care 6%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Industrials 6%
- Energy 6%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector‑wise, this is a heavily tech‑tilted portfolio: about 47% sits in technology, with the rest spread across areas like consumer discretionary, telecoms, financials, health care, staples, industrials, energy, and smaller slices in materials, utilities, and real estate. Many broad equity benchmarks have a large tech component, but usually not this high, so this is a pronounced overweight. Tech and related industries can grow quickly and have driven market returns in recent years, yet they also tend to be more sensitive to interest rates and sentiment swings. That concentration helps explain both the strong historical returns and the larger drawdown when conditions turned against growth and tech names.
Regions
- North America 96%
- Europe Developed 2%
- Asia Developed 1%
Geographically, this portfolio is overwhelmingly concentrated in North America at 96%, with only tiny exposures to developed Europe and Asia. Global equity benchmarks typically spread more across regions, often with the US around 60% of market cap, not over 90%. A strong US tilt has helped over the last decade as US markets, especially large‑cap growth and tech, outpaced many other regions. The flip side is that economic, policy, and currency developments in one region dominate outcomes here. If non‑US markets or currencies perform differently in the future, this portfolio will capture relatively little of that divergence because of its tight regional focus.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 34%
- Large-cap 33%
- Mid-cap 14%
- Small-cap 10%
- Micro-cap 7%
The market‑cap breakdown shows a clear lean toward bigger companies but with meaningful exposure across the size spectrum: 34% in mega‑caps, 33% in large‑caps, and the remainder split among mid‑, small‑, and micro‑caps. That blend combines the relative stability and liquidity of very large firms with the higher business risk but sometimes higher growth potential of smaller companies. The dedicated small‑cap value ETF and total market fund help pull in those mid and smaller names, while the NASDAQ 100 and semiconductor ETF keep the top of the market heavily represented. Overall, it’s a size mix that’s more diversified than the sector and geographic views, which are more concentrated.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.36%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares Semiconductor ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 3.63%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.19%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares Semiconductor ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.83%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- iShares Semiconductor ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.67%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.32%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.83%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.61%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.54%
Part of fund(s):- iShares Semiconductor ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.42%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 26.39%
Looking through ETF top‑10 holdings, a handful of big names show up repeatedly, especially in tech and communication services. NVIDIA is the single largest look‑through exposure at about 5.36%, followed by Apple, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (both share classes), AMD, and Meta. Because these names appear in multiple ETFs, they create hidden concentration: the portfolio might seem diversified at the fund level, but underlying exposures cluster around a tight group of mega‑cap growth and chip companies. This overlap is likely understated because only top‑10s are included in the data. That concentration helps explain both the portfolio’s strong recent run and its sensitivity to those specific firms.
Factors
Across the six classic factors — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility — this portfolio is generally market‑like. Most measures sit in the “neutral” band, meaning it doesn’t strongly tilt toward or away from those characteristics relative to the broad market. Factor exposure is like checking which ingredients dominate a recipe; here, the mix is fairly balanced rather than, say, heavily skewed to deep value or high momentum. The main standout is a mild tilt away from low volatility, suggesting a preference for somewhat more volatile names. That lines up with the tech and semiconductor exposure, which often trade with larger price swings than slower, defensive sectors.
Risk contribution
-
iShares Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 20.00% 31.5% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 30.00% 30.2% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 25.00% 20.0% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 13.1% -
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
Weight: 10.00% 5.2%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. The semiconductor ETF, at 20% weight, accounts for a hefty 31.47% of total risk, with a risk‑to‑weight ratio of 1.57. The NASDAQ 100 ETF, at 30%, contributes a similar 30.23% of risk. Along with the total market ETF, the top three positions together explain about 81.7% of portfolio risk. In contrast, the dividend equity ETF is 10% of the portfolio but only about 5% of risk. This pattern shows how a relatively modest allocation to a highly volatile or concentrated theme can dominate risk, even when other funds hold more positions.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
In the efficient frontier view, the current mix sits 1.6 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.8. The Sharpe ratio compares excess return to volatility, like measuring how much “reward” you’re getting for each unit of “bumpiness.” The optimal portfolio using just these same holdings (no new funds added) reaches a Sharpe of 1.01 by taking more risk and aiming for a higher return, while the minimum‑variance combination offers lower risk with a Sharpe of 0.86. Being below the frontier suggests that, historically, a different weighting of these five ETFs could have improved the risk/return trade‑off without changing the underlying ingredients.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.30%
- iShares Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.96%
The overall dividend yield of the portfolio is 0.96%, which is modest and below what many broad equity income strategies target. The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF is the standout payer at around 3.3%, while the NASDAQ 100 and semiconductor ETFs provide very low yields, and the total market and small‑cap value funds sit in between. In practice, that means most of the portfolio’s historical return has come from price appreciation rather than cash payouts. For someone looking at income versus growth, this is more of a growth‑driven setup with a small income component anchored by the dividend ETF, rather than a focused dividend or high‑yield structure.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
- iShares Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.17%
The weighted average ongoing fee (TER) across the five ETFs is about 0.17% per year. TER, or Total Expense Ratio, is the annual cost charged by the funds, taken directly out of returns, a bit like a small management toll. This level is low by active‑fund standards and compares favorably with many thematic or niche products, especially given the presence of ultra‑low‑cost core building blocks like the Vanguard total market ETF at 0.03%. Lower costs leave more of the underlying investment performance in the investor’s hands over time, and here the fee drag is modest relative to the portfolio’s historical level of return and volatility.
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