Strong US growth portfolio with a big S&P 500 core and concentrated tech stock overlay
Report created on May 12, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 88.80% -
NV NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - US67066G1040 3.62% -
DD Datadog Inc
DDOG - US23804L1035 2.84% -
MR Moderna Inc
MRNA - US60770K1079 1.28% -
AM Amazon.com Inc
AMZN - US0231351067 1.27% -
PO Porsche Automobile Holding SE
POAHY - US73328P1066 0.89% -
OV Ovintiv Inc
OVV - US69047Q1022 0.70% -
AP APA Corporation
APA - US03743Q1085 0.53% -
PR Prairie Operating Co. Common Stock
PROP - US7396501097 0.07%
This portfolio is dominated by a single holding: an S&P 500 ETF at almost 89%, with the rest in individual US and one European stock. That means most behavior will feel similar to the broad US market, with a layer of concentrated bets on a few names like NVIDIA, Datadog, and Amazon. Structurally, this is a “core plus satellites” setup: a diversified index core, plus a handful of focused positions around it. This matters because the core provides broad exposure, while the satellites can meaningfully tilt returns and risk. The modest number of holdings explains the low diversification score, even though the ETF itself is widely diversified inside.
Growth
Historically, this mix has performed very strongly: a $1,000 investment grew to about $4,447, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 25.3%. CAGR is like average speed on a road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. That growth handily beat both the US market (16.1%) and global market (13.56%). The tradeoff was a sizable maximum drawdown of -35.1%, similar in depth to the benchmarks but taking around 15 months to fully recover. Another notable point: 90% of returns came from just 33 trading days, underscoring how missing a small number of strong days can dramatically change long-term results.
Projection
The forward projection uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which takes past return patterns and volatility, then runs 1,000 randomized “what if” paths to estimate future ranges. It suggests a median outcome of about $2,766 from $1,000 over 15 years, with a wide but plausible range between roughly $1,049 and $7,698. The average annual return across simulations is 8.1%, and around three-quarters of paths end positive. These numbers aren’t forecasts or guarantees; they just show how bumpy the ride could be even when long-term expectations are favorable. Outcomes depend heavily on whether strong years cluster early or late, something no model can predict precisely.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash-like assets, or alternatives. That makes the growth potential high but also means returns will fully reflect equity ups and downs. Compared with many blended portfolios that mix in bonds or other stabilizers, this setup leans entirely on the stock market engine. In calm or rising environments, that can be rewarding, because there’s no drag from lower-return assets. During broad equity sell-offs, though, there’s no built-in cushion. The all-equity structure helps explain the “growth” risk classification and the relatively high risk score, as volatility will closely track equity market cycles.
Sectors
- Technology 36%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Financials 11%
- Health Care 10%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Industrials 8%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
Sector exposure is broadly diversified by equity standards, with technology the largest slice at 36%, followed by consumer, financial, health care, telecom, and industrial names spread across the rest. These sector weights are largely driven by the S&P 500 ETF, which itself reflects current market leadership. A meaningful tilt toward technology can be a double-edged sword: tech-heavy portfolios often benefit in periods of innovation and growth optimism, but can be more sensitive when interest rates rise or when investors rotate toward more defensive areas. The presence of energy, utilities, and consumer staples provides some balance, even if they’re smaller components in the mix.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is overwhelmingly concentrated in North America at 99%, with just 1% in developed Europe via the Porsche position. This is even more US-focused than many global benchmarks, which typically allocate a substantial slice to non-US markets. A strong US tilt has been rewarded over the last decade, which helps explain the historical outperformance versus the global index. The flip side is that economic, regulatory, or currency shocks specific to the US will directly influence almost the entire portfolio. This geography profile reflects a conscious bet on the US market rather than a more evenly spread global allocation.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 45%
- Large-cap 37%
- Mid-cap 16%
- Small-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio leans heavily toward mega-cap and large-cap companies, which together make up over 80% of exposure. These are the biggest, most established firms, often with diversified business lines and deep liquidity. Mid-caps provide some additional growth potential, while small-cap exposure is minimal at just 1%. This size mix is similar to many broad market indices, which are dominated by the largest names. The benefit is usually more stability and better trading liquidity than a small-cap-heavy approach. At the same time, it means less direct participation in the sometimes sharper—but more volatile—growth opportunities found in smaller companies.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 5.91%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
Part of fund(s):
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.37%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.66%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.33%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.13%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.99%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.66%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 38.74%
Looking through the ETF’s top holdings reveals meaningful overlap with the individual stocks. NVIDIA totals about 10.35% of the portfolio when combining direct stock and ETF exposure, while Amazon reaches 4.5% the same way. Other large underlying positions like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta come entirely via the ETF. Overlap matters because it creates hidden concentration: a big company appearing both as a direct holding and inside an ETF effectively amplifies its impact on performance. Note that this overlap is likely understated, since only ETF top-10 positions are captured. Even so, the data already shows a clear concentration around a small cluster of major tech and growth names.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposures—value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility—are all close to neutral, meaning the portfolio behaves broadly like the overall equity market on these dimensions. Factor exposure is essentially how much the portfolio leans into certain characteristics that academic research links to returns, like cheapness (value) or stability (low volatility). Here, there are no strong tilts either toward or away from any factor, which is consistent with using a broad market ETF as the core. This balanced factor profile suggests that performance is driven more by general market movements and stock-specific bets than by explicit factor strategies.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 88.80% 83.8% -
NVIDIA Corporation
Weight: 3.62% 6.6% -
Datadog Inc
Weight: 2.84% 4.2% -
Amazon.com Inc
Weight: 1.27% 1.4% -
Moderna Inc
Weight: 1.28% 1.1% - Top 5 risk contribution 97.2%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its simple weight. The S&P 500 ETF is 88.8% of the portfolio and contributes about 83.8% of total risk, so its risk roughly matches its size. NVIDIA is only 3.62% by weight but contributes 6.62% of risk, and Datadog is similar, indicating these smaller positions punch above their weight due to higher volatility. The top three holdings account for about 94.6% of total portfolio risk. That concentration means day-to-day swings are primarily shaped by broad US market moves plus the behavior of a small set of growth-oriented stocks.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk vs. return chart shows the current portfolio with a Sharpe ratio of 0.79, compared with 1.5 for the “optimal” mix of the same holdings and 0.84 for the minimum variance version. The Sharpe ratio is a simple way to judge risk-adjusted returns: how much extra return you get per unit of volatility, after accounting for a risk-free rate. The portfolio sits about 1.68 percentage points below the efficient frontier at its current risk level, meaning a different weighting of the existing positions could have historically offered a better tradeoff. Importantly, this analysis doesn’t assume adding new assets—just reshuffling what’s already here.
Dividends
- APA Corporation 2.00%
- Ovintiv Inc 2.00%
- Porsche Automobile Holding SE 5.80%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.96%
The portfolio’s total dividend yield is relatively modest at about 0.96%, with the main income coming from the S&P 500 ETF’s 1% yield and a higher 5.8% yield from the small Porsche position. Energy names like APA and Ovintiv also chip in around 2%. In an equity-heavy, growth-focused mix like this, dividends are a minor part of total return compared with price appreciation. That aligns with the strong historical growth pattern: most of the gains have come from rising share prices rather than cash payments. For someone tracking income, this means expectations should center on long-term capital growth rather than regular high payouts.
Ongoing product costs
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.03%
Costs are impressively low: the S&P 500 ETF’s ongoing fee (TER) is just 0.03%, and since it dominates the portfolio, the overall TER is also 0.03%. TER, or Total Expense Ratio, is the annual percentage the fund charges to cover management and operations. Keeping this low helps more of the portfolio’s gross return end up in your pocket, especially over long periods where fees compound. Compared to many active funds that might charge 0.5%–1% or more, this structure is very cost-efficient. That low-cost base is a strong foundation, particularly when combined with a broadly diversified core index holding.
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