This portfolio has a strong focus on the US equity market, with 40% in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, 30% in the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF, and 5% in the ProShares UltraPro QQQ, summing up to 75% in equities. The remaining 25% is allocated to short-term bonds via the iShares® 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF. This composition suggests a tilt towards growth-oriented stocks, particularly in the technology sector, while maintaining a portion in cash-equivalent assets for stability.
Historically, this portfolio has achieved a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.81%, with a maximum drawdown of -27.55%. This performance indicates a strong growth potential but comes with significant volatility, as evidenced by the drawdown. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in just 22 days highlights the portfolio's reliance on short-term, high-impact gains, typical for tech-heavy investments.
Monte Carlo simulations, projecting future performance based on historical data, suggest a wide range of outcomes, from a 5th percentile loss of -30.7% to a 67th percentile gain of 1,167%. While 924 out of 1,000 simulations returned positive outcomes, this spread underscores the high risk and high potential reward nature of the portfolio. It's crucial to understand that these projections are not guarantees but rather potential scenarios that could unfold.
The asset class distribution, with 74% in stocks and 26% in cash equivalents, indicates a balanced approach between growth and stability. However, the absence of traditional bonds or alternative investments limits the portfolio's diversification, potentially increasing volatility and risk during market downturns.
Sector allocation is heavily weighted towards technology, making up 33% of the portfolio. Other significant sectors include communication services and consumer cyclicals. This concentration in tech and growth-oriented sectors suggests higher sensitivity to market sentiment and interest rate changes, which could lead to increased volatility.
Geographic allocation is predominantly North American (74%), with minimal exposure to developed Europe (1%) and no direct investment in emerging markets or other regions. This concentration in the US market enhances the portfolio's growth potential but may increase vulnerability to regional economic shifts.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for mega (36%) and big (24%) cap stocks, with a smaller portion in medium caps (11%). This skew towards larger companies, typical for S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices, suggests stability and potential for growth but may limit exposure to the high-growth potential of smaller firms.
The high correlation between ProShares UltraPro QQQ and Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF indicates overlapping investments, which reduces the diversification benefits of holding both. This redundancy could be addressed by reallocating assets to reduce overlap and enhance portfolio diversification.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Optimizing this portfolio involves addressing the high correlation between certain assets to improve diversification. Removing or reducing exposure to overlapping ETFs can decrease risk without significantly sacrificing potential returns. This step is crucial for aligning the portfolio more closely with the Efficient Frontier, where each asset contributes to an optimal risk-return balance.
The portfolio's overall dividend yield is 1.70%, with individual yields ranging from 0.50% to 4.30%. While not the primary focus, dividends contribute to the portfolio's total return, providing a modest income stream alongside capital appreciation.
The total expense ratio (TER) of 0.12% is relatively low, enhancing net returns. The varied individual ETF costs, from 0.03% to 0.88%, reflect a balance between cost efficiency and strategic allocation to higher-cost, potentially higher-reward investments like the ProShares UltraPro QQQ.
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