Your portfolio is heavily weighted towards ETFs, with a significant emphasis on the SPDR® S&P Homebuilders ETF and the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, making up nearly half of your investments. This allocation suggests a focus on the US housing market and dividend-paying stocks. While ETFs offer diversified exposure within their respective sectors, the concentration in specific areas, particularly homebuilders, indicates a less diversified approach across sectors and asset classes. This is further highlighted by the portfolio's classification as "Single-Focused."
Historically, your portfolio has achieved a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.45%, with a maximum drawdown of -24.50%. These figures suggest moderate growth with significant volatility. The days contributing most to returns are notably few, indicating that performance peaks are concentrated in specific periods. This performance profile requires a balanced view of risk and reward, as significant drawdowns highlight periods of substantial value decrease, which might not be suitable for all investors.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to project future outcomes, show a wide range of potential returns for your portfolio. With only 280 out of 1,000 simulations resulting in positive returns, there's a notable risk of underperformance. This method, while useful for understanding potential volatility and risk, has limitations and cannot predict future market movements with certainty. The projections underscore the importance of considering both the potential for high returns and the risk of significant losses.
Your portfolio's asset allocation is dominated by stocks (84%), with a smaller portion in bonds (16%) and a negligible amount in cash (1%). This distribution aligns with a balanced but growth-oriented investment strategy, aiming for higher long-term returns at the expense of short-term volatility. However, the emphasis on equities, particularly in concentrated sectors, might increase the portfolio's sensitivity to market fluctuations, suggesting a need for a broader diversification to mitigate risk.
The sectoral allocation reveals a heavy tilt towards consumer cyclicals and industrials, with lesser exposures to financial services and technology. This distribution may reflect a belief in the strength of the consumer and industrial sectors but leaves the portfolio potentially vulnerable to sector-specific downturns. Diversifying more evenly across sectors could reduce volatility and improve the resilience of your investment to market changes.
Geographically, your portfolio is predominantly invested in North America (79%), with minimal exposure to international markets. This concentration in a single region increases vulnerability to local economic and political events. Expanding into more diverse international holdings could offer better protection against region-specific risks and potentially tap into growth opportunities in emerging markets.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a balanced mix between big (25%), medium (25%), and small (17%) cap stocks, with some investments in micro (9%) and mega (7%) caps. This spread suggests an attempt to balance the stability of large companies with the growth potential of smaller ones. However, the presence of micro-cap investments indicates a higher risk tolerance, as these can be more volatile and less liquid than larger counterparts.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Efficient Frontier analysis suggests that your portfolio could achieve a higher expected return of 22.24% at the same risk level, indicating room for optimization. While the current allocation has served you well, there's potential to enhance returns without increasing risk by adjusting the asset mix. This optimization process involves carefully rebalancing your investments to align more closely with the Efficient Frontier, which represents the ideal balance between risk and return.
Your portfolio's dividend yield stands at an average of 2.16%, with notable contributions from the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF and the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares. This yield indicates a focus on income-generating assets, which can provide a steady stream of revenue. However, it's essential to balance the pursuit of dividends with growth opportunities, ensuring a well-rounded return on investment.
The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) averages to 0.16%, which is relatively low, indicating cost-efficient investment choices. Lower costs can significantly enhance long-term returns by reducing the drag on performance. This efficiency in managing costs is commendable and should be maintained as you consider any adjustments to your investment strategy.
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