Riding the big tech rollercoaster and calling it a balanced diversified strategy
Report created on Apr 23, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 25.00% -
VE Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VEA - US9219438580 20.00% -
AV Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF
AVEM - US0250726041 5.00%
This portfolio is basically three giant index firehoses plus a small emerging-markets garnish, then left on autopilot. Half is broad US large caps, a quarter is the most aggressive slice of US growth, and the rest is “international so it looks diversified on a chart.” For something labeled “balanced,” it’s 100% stocks with a turbocharged US growth overlay – more sports car than family sedan. Structurally it’s simple, which is good; it’s also extremely one-note, which is less good. Composition like this means most outcomes will be driven by one question: did big US growth stocks have a good decade, or did they finally decide gravity applies to them too.
Growth
Historically, the portfolio did well, but not “genius investor” well – CAGR around 14.8% versus the US market’s 15.1%. You basically beat the global market and then promptly handed the victory back by slightly lagging the plain US benchmark. Max drawdown near -28% also undercut the US market’s -24.5%, so you took a bit more pain for slightly less gain. Classic “took the risk, didn’t quite get the reward.” And note how 90% of returns came from just 24 days – that’s the usual story with equities: miss a handful of good days and the pretty backtest face-plants. Past data here is flattering, but it’s still yesterday’s weather report.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projections basically say, “Could be awesome, could be average, could be awkward.” Monte Carlo is just a fancy way of running thousands of alternate-history timelines to see how a portfolio might behave. Median outcome takes $1,000 to about $2,821 in 15 years, but the plausible range runs from “barely broke even” at $970 to “lucky genius” at over $7,600. That huge spread is the price of being 100% in stocks, especially growth-tilted ones. About three-quarters of simulations end positive, which is fine, but a 25% chance of disappointment over 15 years is not exactly “sleep-like-a-baby” territory. This is a volatility ride, not a savings account.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes: there’s just one. Stocks. All of them. All the time. The “balanced” label looks almost sarcastic here. No bonds, no cash sleeve, no diversifiers – just pure equity beta with an extra helping of growth. Think of asset classes as food groups; this plate is all protein, no carbs, no vegetables, no dessert. That works great when the market buffet is hot and fresh, but in a serious downturn there’s nothing in here built to cushion blows – everything wants to move in the same painful direction. The upside is simplicity; the downside is there’s nowhere to hide if equities decide to throw a tantrum.
Sectors
- Technology 34%
- Financials 12%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Industrials 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this thing has a clear addiction: technology at 34%, plus another big chunk tied to tech-adjacent names via consumer and communication buckets. It’s like you discovered diversification and then said, “But what if it was mostly tech anyway?” Financials, health care, and industrials show up enough to keep the pie chart from looking totally embarrassing, but they’re absolutely not in charge. When one sector becomes the main character, the portfolio’s storyline follows it – booms feel amazing, busts feel like the floor vanished. This isn’t a broad economy play; it’s a tech-tilted bet wearing a slightly diversified costume.
Regions
- North America 77%
- Europe Developed 10%
- Japan 4%
- Asia Developed 4%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this portfolio is 77% North America with a light sprinkling of “everywhere else” for flavor. Europe, Japan, and the rest of developed markets are basically here as background extras, not co-stars. Emerging markets scrape together 5% through a single ETF – more like a polite nod than a serious commitment. This is very much “US is the main character and the rest of the world is supporting cast.” That works brilliantly when US markets dominate, but it means you heavily underwrite one economic region’s future while most of the world’s GDP and population are just side quests in the allocation.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 47%
- Large-cap 34%
- Mid-cap 16%
- Small-cap 1%
Market cap exposure screams “big-is-beautiful”: 47% mega-cap, 34% large-cap, and only token amounts down the size spectrum. Mid-caps get a minor role, small caps are basically a cameo at 1%. This is the ultra-mainstream, incumbent-heavy version of equity investing – you own the giants that already won. The good news: these behemoths are usually more stable than tiny speculative names. The catch: concentration at the top can turn into “index hugging the same dozen mega-cap darlings” which makes your fate tied to a very small club. If market leadership rotates to smaller companies, this setup just shrugs and misses the party.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.02%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 5.13%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.89%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.04%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.40%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.19%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.04%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.04%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.84%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 0.79%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 29.38%
The look-through holdings reveal the not-so-hidden boss fight: this is a Big Tech Overlap Portfolio. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Meta, Tesla, Broadcom – they all show up more than once, especially thanks to that S&P 500 + NASDAQ 100 combo. So even though the allocation looks like four funds, the economic reality is a handful of mega-cap tech and tech-ish names controlling a huge chunk of risk and returns. And that’s with only top-10 ETF data; true overlap is undoubtedly worse. This isn’t diversification; it’s buying the same celebrities through multiple fan clubs and pretending they’re different people.
Factors
Factor profile is hilariously neutral across the board – value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low volatility all sit in the “meh, market-like” zone. No spicy tilts, no bold factor bets, no personality. Factor exposure is like the ingredients label that tells you what really drives performance; here it mostly says “standard blend, nothing special added, nothing removed.” On the one hand, that avoids accidental landmines like hyper-momentum with terrible quality. On the other, with so much tech and mega-cap overlap, you’d expect stronger style biases. Instead, it’s kind of a factor beige: your outcomes are driven more by plain market direction than by any clever underlying tilt.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 48.2% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 25.00% 31.2% -
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 16.6% -
Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF
Weight: 5.00% 4.1%
Risk contribution is basically a mirror of the weights: S&P 500 at 50% weight delivers about 48% of risk, NASDAQ 100 at 25% pumps out 31% of risk, and the two international funds together barely make up the remainder. That NASDAQ slice is the real drama queen here: a quarter of the portfolio delivering almost a third of the total rollercoaster. Risk contribution just shows which positions move the needle when markets swing, and the answer is clearly “mostly US large growth, with international along for the ride.” The international and emerging positions aren’t driving the car; they’re in the back seat with no say in where it’s going.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, this portfolio grudgingly earns some respect: it’s basically sitting right on the curve. Risk around 17.1% for an expected return of 15.4% with a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 isn’t embarrassing at all, especially given the constraints. The optimizer says you could juggle the same four funds into a slightly better mix — Sharpe up to 0.88 at a bit less risk — but that’s tuning, not a complete rebuild. So structurally, this isn’t a clown car; it’s reasonably efficient for what it owns. The real issue isn’t optimization, it’s the underlying story: efficient exposure to a very specific, growth-heavy equity bet.
Dividends
- Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF 2.20%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.32%
Income-wise, this portfolio is not here to send you checks. Total yield sits around 1.3%, dragged down by the NASDAQ 100’s token 0.5% and the S&P 500’s modest 1.1%. The slightly higher yields in developed and emerging markets help a bit, but not enough to change the headline. This is a capital-growth engine, not an income machine. Dividends are the boring, dependable part of returns; here they’re more like background noise. In a roaring bull market, nobody cares. In a flat or choppy decade, you start to notice that 1–1.5% yield is doing very little heavy lifting for total returns.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF 0.33%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%
Costs are probably the least roastable thing here. A total TER of 0.08% is almost suspiciously sensible – you’re basically paying index pennies for a pretty broad lineup. The biggest offender is the emerging markets ETF at 0.33%, which is still not outrageous for that space. The rest are in “did you bribe Vanguard?” territory. Fees are one of the few things you can almost control in investing, and at least here the portfolio isn’t lighting money on fire. When the biggest criticism is “you could shave a few basis points if you really tried,” that’s about as clean as it gets.
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