Tech flirting small value sprinkle pretending to be a chill balanced portfolio
Report created on May 4, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 40.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 25.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 15.00%
This portfolio is basically three broad funds plus one personality pick stapled on the side. You’ve got total US, total international, a big NASDAQ 100 turbocharger, and then a small-cap value fund thrown in like, “Yeah, I’ve heard of factors.” On paper it looks diversified; in reality it’s US-heavy growth with a value garnish. Structurally, it’s 100% equity and still labeled “balanced,” which is a bit like calling a sports car “family friendly” because it technically has back seats. The mix is simple and coherent, but let’s not pretend this is some sophisticated orchestra — it’s more like three main instruments and a loud soloist.
Growth
Historically, this thing has done what a US-heavy equity portfolio is supposed to do: rip higher when markets are kind and punch you in the face on the way down. Turning $1,000 into $2,210 with a 15.41% CAGR is undeniably strong, but it basically matched the US market and barely squeaked past it. So after all that clever tweaking, you ended up with benchmark-ish results. Max drawdown at -26.14% was slightly worse than global, slightly worse than US, so you took full equity pain without any magical protection. And 90% of returns showing up in just 26 days? That’s classic “miss a few good days, cry a lot” behavior. Past data here is helpful brag material, not a guarantee.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection is the cold shower after the performance party. Monte Carlo is basically a thousand alternate universes for your portfolio, where markets roll dice instead of following your backtest. Median outcome of $2,755 over 15 years is way more boring than your recent history — annualized 7.91% vs the mid-teens you’ve enjoyed. The range is wide: end values from “basically flat at $998” to “hero story at $7,281.” That 74.6% chance of a positive result sounds nice until you realize that also means roughly one in four timelines ends with disappointment. Yesterday’s 15% CAGR is not invited to this simulation.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class “diversification” here is very straightforward: it doesn’t exist. This is 100% stocks, no bonds, no cash, nothing that even vaguely remembers what stability feels like. Calling this “balanced” is optimistic — it’s balanced only in the sense that both feet are firmly on the gas. In asset-class terms, it assumes that riding the equity roller coaster is always worth the nausea. Educational note: mixing asset classes is like mixing food groups; you can live on only carbs for a while, but you’ll feel every blood sugar spike. This portfolio has chosen the all-equity diet and is proudly living with the mood swings.
Sectors
- Technology 28%
- Financials 15%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Industrials 11%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Health Care 7%
- Energy 6%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Basic Materials 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, tech is clearly the main character here at 28%, with everything else playing backup vocals. The NASDAQ 100 allocation makes sure the portfolio leans into the “future is software and chips” narrative, while other sectors just sort of exist so it doesn’t look completely one-dimensional. Financials and industrials show up in reasonable sizes, but tech is still the loudest voice in the room. When tech rallies, this looks genius; when tech stumbles, this looks like bad concentration dressed up as innovation. Compared to broad indexes, you’re a bit more tech-hyped than a plain-vanilla global mix, so sector risk is tilted firmly toward “screens and code.”
Regions
- North America 76%
- Europe Developed 10%
- Japan 4%
- Asia Developed 4%
- Asia Emerging 4%
- Australasia 1%
- Latin America 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geographically, this is very much a “home is where my broker is” portfolio: 76% in North America, with the rest of the world getting table scraps. Europe, Japan, emerging markets — they’re here, but more as background extras than co-stars. This is what happens when you pair US total market with NASDAQ 100 and then let a single international fund quietly mop up the rest. The result is a portfolio that pretends to be global but is basically America plus “and friends.” It will shine when the US dominates and look oddly fragile if leadership shifts elsewhere. Global allocation score: functional, not exactly worldly.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 38%
- Large-cap 27%
- Mid-cap 14%
- Small-cap 11%
- Micro-cap 8%
The market cap spread looks well-behaved at first glance — megacap, large, mid, small, micro are all invited. But under the hood, 38% in megacaps and 27% in large caps means the portfolio’s fate is still mostly tied to the giants. The small and micro exposures (11% and 8%) add some spice, largely courtesy of that Avantis small-cap value sleeve, but they’re supporting actors, not leads. So while you can claim multicap exposure with a straight face, the actual story is “big companies run the show, smaller ones occasionally shake things up.” It’s diversified across sizes, just not in a way that dramatically changes the personality.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.26%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 3.77%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.81%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.28%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.85%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.63%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.57%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.43%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.33%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 0.86%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 21.80%
The look-through holdings scream “I love the Magnificent Whatever-Number-We’re-On.” NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Meta, Tesla — the usual celebrity lineup. The fact that they show up via multiple ETFs is the fun part: you think you’re diversified, but you’re really just buying the same stars through different wrappers. With only top-10 positions visible, overlap is almost certainly understated, so real concentration in these names is higher than it looks. This is the classic index problem: three funds, same icons. It’s not necessarily bad, but hidden concentration dressed as diversification is definitely a theme here.
Factors
Factor exposure is hilariously neutral across the board — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low volatility all sit in the “meh, market-like” zone. For a portfolio that throws in a small-cap value ETF, the overall result is surprisingly bland, like adding hot sauce to a giant pot of plain rice. Factor investing is basically the idea that certain traits — cheapness, quality, trendiness — drive returns; here, none of those traits are loudly favored. The upside: behavior should look fairly similar to broad markets instead of some exotic science project. The downside: you’re not really exploiting any particular edge; you’re mostly just riding the market with a slightly quirky accent.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 40.00% 39.3% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 20.00% 23.6% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 25.00% 20.3% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 16.9%
Risk contribution shows who’s actually rocking the boat, and spoiler: it’s basically the weights you already see. The US total market ETF contributes 39.25% of risk at a 40% weight, playing honest. NASDAQ 100, though, punches a bit above its size — 20% weight, 23.56% of risk — because concentrated growth and tech don’t exactly whisper. Avantis small-cap value also pulls slightly more than its fair share of volatility. The top three positions driving 83.15% of total risk means the rest of the portfolio is mostly along for the ride. Adjusting anything outside those big positions won’t change the emotional experience much.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier chart, this portfolio actually behaves itself: it sits on or very near the frontier. The Sharpe ratio of 0.69 isn’t amazing next to the optimal 0.92, but that’s with higher risk and return; within its risk band, this mix is doing its job. The minimum-variance version offers lower risk with a Sharpe of 0.77, so you could theoretically get calmer rides with similar efficiency just by reshuffling existing pieces. Still, for something that otherwise leans heavily into “own the market and hope,” the risk–return trade-off is surprisingly competent. Accidental optimization or quiet thoughtfulness — hard to tell, but it works.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.80%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.44%
The dividend yield at 1.44% is politely low, which fits a growth-tilted equity setup. That international fund does the heavy lifting at 2.80%, while NASDAQ 100 contributes a token 0.50% like it heard dividends are a thing but isn’t really interested. This isn’t an income portfolio; this is a “hope the line goes up and maybe get some pocket change along the way” setup. Relying on this for serious cash flow would be like trying to live on free samples at Costco: technically possible for a bit, but not the design goal. Here, dividends are just a side quest, not the main storyline.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.09%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio is almost annoyingly sensible. A total TER of 0.09% is dirt cheap — you’re basically getting a full global-ish equity setup for the price of a forgettable coffee each year on $10k. Even the “expensive” Avantis small-cap value at 0.25% is still in the realm of “fine, whatever.” You’ve avoided the classic trap of paying boutique fees for index behavior, which is rarer than it should be. There’s not much to roast here: fees are under control, which just means any future disappointment can’t be blamed on costs. It’ll be pure market drama.
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