Small cap value obsession doing great now but begging the market gods for a future humbling
Report created on May 28, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
-
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 60.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 20.00% -
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 10.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 10.00%
This portfolio is basically a shrine to small-cap value with a couple of big broad funds duct-taped on for respectability. Sixty percent in international small value plus another 20% in U.S. small value means 80% of the portfolio is swinging around in the choppy end of the pool. The S&P 500 and total international fund are just 10% each, like an afterthought to keep it from looking completely unhinged in a fact sheet. Structurally, this isn’t “diversified,” it’s one big bet with two tiny decoys. The label says “growth investor,” but the guts scream “factor maximalist who doesn’t believe in half-measures.”
Growth
Historically, this thing has done the financial equivalent of bragging with a slight limp. A $1,000 investment growing to $2,635 with a 15.7% CAGR is objectively strong, but the U.S. market still edged it out with 16.45%. You took a chunkier max drawdown at -42.19% versus around -34% for the benchmarks, which is a polite way of saying you volunteered for extra pain and didn’t get paid for it versus U.S. equities. Beating the global market by 1.84% CAGR is nice, but that bar isn’t exactly set at Olympic height. Past data helps, but it’s yesterday’s weather, not tomorrow’s forecast.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection basically says, “Yeah, this could work out fine… or not, depending on how spicy markets feel.” Monte Carlo is just a fancy way of running thousands of what-if scenarios to see how a portfolio might behave. Median outcome of $2,821 after 15 years looks decent, but that p5–p95 range of $1,029 to $8,044 is wild. Translation: outcomes range from “barely beat cash” to “hero story at dinner parties.” An 8.31% average annualized return with a 75% chance of a positive result is solid, but the spread screams: this is not a gentle ride, it’s a probability roller coaster.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class breakdown could not be simpler: 100% stocks, 0% anything else. This is the “we don’t believe in seatbelts” school of portfolio construction. No bonds, no cash buffer, no diversifiers — just full send into equity risk, forever. For a growth mandate, that’s on brand, but it leaves exactly zero shock absorbers if markets decide to throw a tantrum. When everything in the portfolio is in the same risk bucket, drawdowns are less “if” and more “how bad this time.” It’s a pure equity engine — powerful when it works, unforgiving when it doesn’t.
Sectors
- Industrials 19%
- Financials 17%
- Consumer Discretionary 14%
- Basic Materials 14%
- Energy 11%
- Technology 10%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Health Care 4%
- Telecommunications 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, this looks like someone tried to build a classic economy portfolio and then poured extra chaos on top with small caps. Industrials at 19%, financials at 17%, and basic materials plus energy taking up a chunky slice means this thing is very tied to the real-world business cycle. Tech at only 10% is almost adorable in a world where major indexes are practically tech funds with extras. This kind of tilt can look genius when boring sectors rally and painfully outdated when growth stories dominate. It’s not badly spread, but it’s definitely not following the usual “everyone loves tech” script.
Regions
- North America 38%
- Europe Developed 26%
- Japan 21%
- Australasia 6%
- Africa/Middle East 4%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this portfolio actually behaves more globally than many U.S.-centric setups, but still with a quirky twist. Only 38% in North America and a hefty 26% in developed Europe plus 21% in Japan gives off “I’ve read academic papers” energy. Australasia, Africa/Middle East, and various parts of Asia all get at least a toe in the door. For a portfolio this factor-obsessed, the global spread is surprisingly sensible. The roast is that the international exposure is mostly funneled into small value land, so yes, the map is diversified, but the style is absolutely not. Global, sure. Balanced? Not really.
Market capitalization
- Mid-cap 37%
- Small-cap 33%
- Micro-cap 12%
- Mega-cap 9%
- Large-cap 7%
The market cap profile is where the portfolio drops the mask entirely. With 33% small-cap and 12% micro-cap, plus 37% mid-cap, this is a deliberate exile from MegaCap Disneyland. Mega-caps and large caps together are only 16%, basically background noise. That means this thing lives or dies by what smaller, less stable companies do. Small and micro caps can offer big upside, but they’re also the ones that get tossed around first in a storm. It’s not just a tilt; it’s a full relocation to the small end of town, with all the volatility baggage that brings.
True holdings
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57 Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co. 0.83%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
-
AT AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik Aktiengesellschaft 0.80%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 0.79%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 0.65%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 0.49%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
CL Clal Insurance Enterprises Holdings Ltd 0.43%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 0.42%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
RQ OceanaGold Corporation 0.40%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
-
PR Perseus Mining Ltd 0.39%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 0.38%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 5.57%
The look-through holdings data is thin, but what does show up is unintentionally hilarious. Your top exposures include random-sounding names like Mitsui Mining and AT & S alongside the usual celebrities like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and TSMC sneaking in via the big index funds. With only 11.4% coverage, the overlap picture is definitely incomplete, but even from this sliver you can see the classic problem: you tried to be quirky with small caps and still ended up with the megacap usual suspects hitchhiking along. Hidden concentration is probably lurking beyond the top 10 snapshots.
Factors
The factor profile looks like it was built by someone who hates broad market mediocrity on a personal level. Value at 75% and size at 67% scream “we’re not just tilting, we’re relocating.” High value means leaning into cheaper-looking stocks, and high size means preferring smaller companies. Yield at 61% and low volatility at 67% add a weird twist: it’s like you’re trying to be both scrappy and somewhat defensive. Momentum and quality sit around neutral, so this isn’t a high-flying growth rocket; it’s more “cheap, smaller, hopefully less wild” — which in practice often translates to “sleep badly in crashes, brag in recovery phases.”
Risk contribution
-
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 60.00% 57.4% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 20.00% 25.2% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 10.00% 8.8% -
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 10.00% 8.7%
Risk contribution shows who is actually steering the roller coaster, and it’s very much a two-fund show. The international small cap value ETF is 60% of the weight and 57% of the risk — fair enough, it’s carrying its own luggage. The U.S. small cap value ETF at 20% weight throwing off 25% of the risk, though, is punching above its weight class. The two big Vanguard index funds barely matter in risk terms, each around 9% despite 10% weights. Top three holdings driving over 91% of total risk means diversification is more cosmetic than functional; most of the drama is coming from one big bet plus its sidekick.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, this portfolio is annoyingly competent. The current Sharpe ratio of 0.64 isn’t amazing on its own, but the optimizer says you’re basically on the curve — the max Sharpe version only nudges return up to 17.22% while trimming risk slightly to 18.84%. The minimum variance option drops risk to 18.57% with still decent return. Translation: for this specific set of ingredients, the mix is pretty efficient already. You chose a spicy risk level, but you didn’t butcher the tradeoff between risk and return. Reluctant credit where it’s due: the chaos is at least mathematically intentional.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.70%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 2.25%
A 2.25% total yield is very “yeah, we pay something, don’t get excited.” The higher yields on the international small value fund and total international ETF drag the average up, while the S&P 500 and U.S. small value funds are more in “token dividend” territory. This isn’t a dividend-chasing portfolio; income is more of a side effect than a core feature. Relying on that 2-ish percent as a meaningful cushion would be optimistic at best. In reality, dividends here are like free snacks on a long-haul flight: pleasant, but they’re not getting you to the destination.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.27%
Total expense ratio of 0.27% is… fine. Not rock-bottom, but not offensive. The Vanguard pieces are dirt cheap at 0.03% and 0.05%, while the Avantis funds charge more for the privilege of factor tilts. You’re basically paying up a bit for the small-cap value science experiment. It’s not highway robbery, but it’s also not the minimalist fee structure of a simple index portfolio. Call it “reasonable with a hobby tax.” If performance doesn’t keep justifying the factor bet over time, those extra basis points will feel like you’ve been tipping a waiter who never quite brings the food you ordered.
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