Concentrated growth portfolio combining broad index exposure with semiconductors small value and bitcoin
Report created on Jul 1, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 34.29% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 23.60% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 17.38% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 10.16% -
IB iShares Bitcoin Trust
IBIT - US46438F1012 7.90% -
NV NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - US67066G1040 6.67%
This portfolio is heavily equity-based with a single-digit slice in bitcoin and a noticeable tilt toward specific themes like semiconductors and U.S. small-cap value. Two broad index ETFs provide core exposure, together making up well over half the portfolio, which is a solid backbone. Around a quarter of the holdings sit in more focused or higher-volatility areas such as small value stocks, a dedicated semiconductor ETF, and a direct position in NVIDIA. This blend means the overall structure mixes “own the whole market” building blocks with targeted growth bets. The result is a portfolio that can participate broadly while still being meaningfully shaped by a handful of higher-risk, higher-reward positions.
Growth
Over the observed period, a hypothetical $1,000 grew to $1,887, which is a strong gain in a relatively short window. The portfolio’s Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 29.72% comfortably exceeded both the U.S. and global market benchmarks, which were around 21%. CAGR is like the average speed of a road trip, smoothing out the bumps along the way. Max drawdown, the largest peak‑to‑trough fall, reached -22.23%, deeper than either benchmark. This mix of higher returns and slightly larger drops is typical for concentrated growth-leaning portfolios. It’s also worth noting that 90% of gains came from just 19 days, highlighting how a small number of strong sessions drove much of the performance.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses historical volatility and returns to create 1,000 possible 15‑year paths for a $1,000 investment, like running many “what if” futures. The median outcome of $2,733 implies an annualized return of about 8.34% across all simulations, lower than the recent realized figure, reflecting that the model builds in the chance of rougher periods. The wide likely range — roughly $1,780 to $4,477 for the middle half of outcomes — shows substantial uncertainty. A 73.4% chance of ending with a positive return suggests favorable odds over long horizons, but the lower tail down near $906 underlines that losses are still very possible. As always, these simulations are not predictions, just statistical scenarios based on past behavior.
Asset classes
- Stocks 92%
- Crypto 8%
Asset allocation is very straightforward: about 92% in stocks and 8% in crypto, with no bonds or cash listed. Stocks are ownership stakes in companies and tend to offer higher long-term growth alongside more volatility. Crypto, especially bitcoin, behaves quite differently, often swinging much more than traditional markets. Compared with balanced mixes that include bonds or cash, this profile is firmly growth‑oriented and more sensitive to equity market cycles. The modest but meaningful bitcoin slice adds another layer of potential return and risk, given its history of sharp booms and busts. An all‑risk‑asset structure like this depends heavily on markets remaining supportive over time rather than on income or capital‑preservation components.
Sectors
- Technology 34%
- Financials 14%
- Industrials 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Crypto 8%
- Health Care 6%
- Energy 5%
- Telecommunications 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector exposure is led by technology at 34%, boosted by the semiconductor ETF and NVIDIA, while financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary round out the next biggest slices. This creates a clear tilt toward areas linked to innovation, electronics, and the broader economic cycle. Tech‑heavy allocations can benefit strongly in periods of digital growth, AI enthusiasm, or falling interest rates, but they may also react more sharply when rates rise or tech sentiment cools. Crypto, at 8%, behaves almost like an additional “hyper‑growth” segment rather than a traditional sector. Other areas such as health care, energy, and consumer staples are present, providing some balance, but the portfolio’s day‑to‑day moves are likely to be driven primarily by technology‑related holdings.
Regions
- North America 68%
- Europe Developed 9%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Japan 4%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, about 68% of the portfolio is in North America, with the rest spread across Europe, developed Asia, Japan, and smaller allocations to emerging regions. This U.S. and North America tilt is common among global equity investors and has been rewarded over the last decade, as U.S. markets, especially tech, outperformed many others. However, it also means outcomes are closely tied to one main economic and regulatory environment, along with the U.S. dollar. Exposure to Europe and Asia provides some diversification, but the portfolio still leans more heavily toward developed markets than a perfectly global market‑cap mix. This alignment with U.S. strength is a positive in terms of familiarity and historical returns, while still leaving room for non‑U.S. participation.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 37%
- Large-cap 22%
- Small-cap 12%
- Mid-cap 11%
- Micro-cap 9%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
By market capitalization, the portfolio shows a broad spread: 37% mega‑cap, 22% large‑cap, and meaningful slices in mid, small, and even micro‑cap stocks. Market cap simply reflects company size — mega‑caps are household names, while micro‑caps are much smaller, often more volatile businesses. This distribution means the portfolio doesn’t just hug the largest companies; it reaches down the size spectrum, amplified by the dedicated U.S. small‑cap value ETF. Historically, smaller companies can be more volatile and more sensitive to economic shifts but may offer different growth dynamics than giants. The mix of size tiers helps diversify risk sources, though the presence of micro‑caps suggests that some part of the portfolio may experience sharper individual swings than a pure mega/large‑cap index.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
BT Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) 7.90%
Part of fund(s):- iShares Bitcoin Trust
-
AA Apple Inc. 2.16%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.62%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.58%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.31%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.23%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.05%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 0.94%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 0.93%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 29.16%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Looking through the ETFs, NVIDIA stands out as the key underlying overlap at a total of 10.44% of the portfolio, split between a direct holding and ETF exposure. This creates a hidden concentration: the company matters more than its 6.67% direct weight suggests. Bitcoin exposure, via the iShares Bitcoin Trust, is also notable at 7.90%, functioning almost like a single high‑volatility position. Other large names like Apple, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Amazon appear through the broad index funds and the semiconductor ETF, but each is a relatively modest share. Because only ETF top‑10 holdings are included, actual overlap further down the holdings list is not fully captured. Still, the data clearly shows that NVIDIA and bitcoin are central drivers within this structure.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposures — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility — are all in the neutral band, clustered around the 50% “market average” mark. Factors are like the underlying ingredients that explain why some investments behave differently: for example, value stocks are cheaper relative to fundamentals, while momentum stocks have been rising recently. A neutral reading means the portfolio behaves broadly like the overall market in these dimensions, without strong tilts toward or away from any one factor. This is somewhat notable given the small‑cap value and semiconductor elements; the broad index holdings are large enough to keep the overall blend close to market‑like. In practice, this suggests performance is driven more by asset and sector choices than by systematic factor bets.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 34.29% 27.2% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 10.16% 17.4% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 23.60% 16.0% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 17.38% 14.9% -
NVIDIA Corporation
Weight: 6.67% 12.4% - Top 5 risk contribution 87.9%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding adds to overall volatility, which can differ a lot from its simple weight. Here, the top three positions account for about 60.56% of total portfolio risk, with VanEck Semiconductor ETF and NVIDIA punching above their weights. For example, the semiconductor ETF is about 10.16% of the portfolio but contributes 17.43% of risk, while NVIDIA is 6.67% of assets yet drives 12.41% of risk. A risk/weight ratio well above 1 signals this amplification. Meanwhile, the broad Vanguard index funds carry large weights but lower relative risk shares, acting as stabilizing anchors. This pattern is typical when a portfolio combines broad, diversified funds with more volatile thematic or single‑stock positions.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis shows the current portfolio with a Sharpe ratio of 1.2, sitting about 3.03 percentage points below the best achievable mix of these same holdings at the current risk level. The Sharpe ratio compares excess return (above a risk‑free rate) to volatility — higher means better return per unit of risk. An “optimal” version of this portfolio has a noticeably higher Sharpe of 1.59, while the minimum‑variance mix has a Sharpe of 1.27 at lower risk. This suggests the existing weights are reasonably effective but not fully efficient from a pure risk/return standpoint. Importantly, the analysis indicates that simply reweighting the current holdings — without adding anything new — could move the portfolio closer to the efficient frontier.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- NVIDIA Corporation 0.10%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.60%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.24%
The overall dividend yield is about 1.24%, driven mostly by the broad index funds and the small‑cap value ETF. Dividend yield measures annual cash payments relative to price, acting like a “salary” from investments, though it can fluctuate over time. The international fund has the highest yield at 2.60%, while holdings like NVIDIA and the semiconductor ETF contribute very little in income terms. In a growth‑oriented portfolio like this, total return will mainly come from price changes rather than dividends. That said, a modest yield still provides some ongoing cash flow and can help cushion returns slightly during flat or down markets, even if it’s not the primary focus of the current mix.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- iShares Bitcoin Trust 0.12%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.11%
Costs are a real strength here. The total ongoing fee level (Total TER) is around 0.11%, which is impressively low given the mix of broad index funds and more specialized ETFs. The cheapest holdings are the Vanguard index ETFs at 0.03% and 0.05%, anchoring the portfolio’s expenses, while the more focused funds like the semiconductor ETF and small‑cap value ETF are higher but still reasonable for their categories. TER, or Total Expense Ratio, is the annual fee charged by a fund, taken directly from its assets. Keeping this number low leaves more of the portfolio’s returns in your pocket over time, and here the cost structure aligns well with best practices in low‑cost, long‑term investing.
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