Confident small value nerd portfolio that still manages to trip over basic efficiency and US home bias
Report created on Apr 30, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 43.00% -
VE Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VEA - US9219438580 22.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 15.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 10.00% -
VW Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VWO - US9220428588 10.00%
This portfolio is basically a five‑ETF starter kit that read two investing books and got cocky. Half of it is broad vanilla index funds, the other half is small-cap value cosplay, all crammed into 100% stocks. Structurally it’s not chaos, but it’s also not as clever as it thinks it is: the “core” is already diversified, then the satellites just double down on the same risk knobs. Think of it as a sensible global index portfolio that then went back for seconds on the riskiest part of the buffet. The result is coherent enough, but it’s leaning heavily on equity market weather with no umbrella anywhere in sight.
Growth
Historically, this thing turned $1,000 into $2,366, which sounds impressive until the US market walks in at $2,700 and quietly flexes. A 14.01% CAGR is solid, but lagging the US by 1.81% means the small-value and international spice hasn’t exactly earned its seat yet. Max drawdown at -37% also managed to be worse than both benchmarks, so it underperformed with extra drama. That’s the investment equivalent of getting to the finish line sweaty while the benchmark jogs in looking unbothered. Past data is useful, but it’s yesterday’s weather — it explains the bruises, not the next punch.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection politely says, “This could work… or not.” Monte Carlo is just a fancy way of running the portfolio through thousands of alternate-universe market paths to see how often it doesn’t blow up. Median outcome of $2,801 after 15 years is decent, but the “likely” band from $1,792 to $4,162 is basically “anything from mildly disappointing to pretty nice.” The scary part is the tails: $1,030 on the low end after 15 years is a long walk to go nowhere. Simulations are educated guesses, not prophecies, and this fully‑equity setup is signing up for the full emotional rollercoaster.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes: there is exactly one. This is 100% stocks, zero bonds, zero cash ballast, zero anything-that-behaves-differently. It’s like building a house entirely out of glass and then acting surprised when hail shows up. Stocks are great growth engines, but they also all slam on the brakes together during panics, which is why diversified asset mixes exist. Here, every single dollar is tied to the same basic economic story: corporate earnings go up and markets stay generous. When that story stutters, there’s nothing in this lineup designed to be boring, defensive, or even mildly adult.
Sectors
- Technology 20%
- Financials 18%
- Industrials 14%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Health Care 8%
- Energy 7%
- Telecommunications 6%
- Basic Materials 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is basically a “modern economy” costume: tech at 20%, financials at 18%, industrials 14%, and everything else sprinkled in like garnish. Nothing is outrageously concentrated, but tech and financials together accounting for almost 40% means two sectors get to decide how your mood feels most days. The tiny 2% in utilities and 2% in real estate means the classic slow-and-steady plodders barely exist here. It’s not a meme-stock clown show — more like a slightly amped-up version of a broad index — but the sector mix isn’t going to save anything when the growth and credit cycle throws a tantrum.
Regions
- North America 61%
- Europe Developed 15%
- Japan 8%
- Asia Emerging 5%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Australasia 2%
- Africa/Middle East 2%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this screams “American with a passport… in a drawer.” With 61% in North America, it’s basically a US portfolio that remembered the rest of the world exists and tossed them a 39% participation trophy. The developed ex-US piece plus emerging markets is respectable on paper, but the center of gravity is still very much “US or bust.” That bias works when the US outperforms, looks mediocre when it doesn’t, and absolutely drags if other regions have their decade in the sun. This isn’t global investing so much as global seasoning on a US main course.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 32%
- Large-cap 23%
- Mid-cap 19%
- Small-cap 16%
- Micro-cap 8%
The market-cap breakdown is where the personality really shows: 32% mega-cap, 23% large, then a very chunky 19% mid, 16% small, and 8% micro. Translation: you took a plain vanilla index and then aggressively sprinkled on small-cap cayenne pepper. This tilt away from the megacap comfort zone into the small and micro sandbox is where things get bumpy — smaller names can move like they’ve had three espressos and no risk manager. When it works, it looks brave and clever; when it doesn’t, it just looks like you volunteered for extra volatility for no guaranteed bonus.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 2.75%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 2.55%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.88%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.38%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 1.28%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.14%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.00%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 0.91%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 0.86%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.71%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 14.46%
Look-through holdings show the usual suspects hogging the spotlight: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla — all showing up through the ETFs even while you pretend to be a small-value purist. Nvidia at 2.75% and Apple at 2.55% are not small, quiet background characters. The “we love small value” aesthetic is layered on top of the same mega-cap growth royalty everybody owns. And that’s just from top-10 ETF holdings, meaning real overlap is likely higher. Under the hood, this is still very much a “worships the megacap tech gods but dabbles in factor tilts” structure.
Factors
Factor exposure is where the mask slips. High value (64%) and high size (60%) says this portfolio is loudly tilted toward cheaper, smaller stocks — the rebellious cousins of the market. Factor exposure is basically the ingredient label: it tells you what style of risk you’re actually eating. Here, it’s a “value and small” sandwich on everything bread. Neutral momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility mean you’re not compensating that tilt with extra safety or stability. Leaning into value and size without much low-vol or quality support is like tuning a car for speed and then ignoring the brakes.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 43.00% 43.1% -
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 22.00% 20.2% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 15.00% 19.2% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 9.0% -
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 10.00% 8.6%
Risk contribution reveals who’s really driving the chaos, and surprise: the plain-vanilla US total market ETF is doing exactly its weight in drama at 43%. The real overachiever is Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value — only 15% of the portfolio but contributing over 19% of the risk, with a risk/weight ratio of 1.28. That’s the kid doing twice the damage for their size. Top three positions delivering 82% of total risk means a handful of funds decide almost all your ride quality. The structure pretends to be diversified, but in volatility terms, it’s basically a three‑actor show.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, this portfolio is that student who passes the class but leaves 10% on the table. A Sharpe ratio of 0.57 while the optimal mix of the same holdings delivers 0.8 means the ingredients are fine, the recipe is sloppy. The efficient frontier shows the best risk/return combos possible with these ETFs; sitting 1.36% below it at the same risk level is essentially wasting free performance. Reweighting alone — no new toys, no extra complexity — could get a smoother or better ride, but instead the current setup chooses “good enough” and walks away from obvious efficiency.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.90%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.80%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.82%
The yield story is “some income, but don’t quit your day job.” A total yield of 1.82% is mildly better than a plain US broad market, helped by the international and value tilts flirting with 2.5–2.9%. But this isn’t a dividend-focused build; income here is more of a side effect than a mission. Dividends can be nice emotional support during flat markets, but relying on sub‑2% yield in a 100% stock lineup is not exactly a steady paycheck vibe. The portfolio is clearly here for capital growth and factor bets, not for soothing, predictable cashflow.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.08%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.11%
Costs are the part that almost ruins the roast: a 0.11% overall TER is annoyingly sensible. The Vanguard funds are practically free, and even the pricier Avantis factor funds are reasonably modest for what they are. This isn’t someone setting money on fire via fees; if anything, it’s a case of “clicked the cheap options on purpose.” The only mild jab is that you’re paying extra for small value sauce that so far hasn’t obviously beaten a simple US market tracker. Still, on the fee front, no disaster here — just a frugal factor fan.
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