This portfolio is predominantly invested in U.S. large-cap growth stocks, with a significant 86.48% allocation to a Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF. This is complemented by a 12.21% investment in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares, offering broader market exposure, albeit still within the U.S. A minimal 1.31% is allocated to SPDR® Gold Shares, adding a slight diversification outside of equities. The heavy concentration in large-cap growth stocks and minimal diversification across asset classes or sectors indicate a high-growth, high-risk strategy.
Historically, this portfolio has exhibited a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.62%, with a maximum drawdown of -33.17%. This performance showcases periods of significant growth, albeit with substantial volatility, as evidenced by the drawdown. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in 35.0 days further underscores the portfolio’s volatility and the importance of being invested during these key periods for optimal growth.
Using a Monte Carlo simulation, which projects future performance based on historical data, the portfolio shows a wide range of outcomes. With 998 out of 1,000 simulations yielding positive returns, the median projection suggests a potential 537.8% increase. However, it's crucial to remember that such simulations rely on past trends, which may not predict future movements accurately, especially in a portfolio with high concentration in specific sectors and asset classes.
The portfolio's asset allocation is heavily skewed towards stocks, with a 99% investment in equities and a negligible 1% in other assets, primarily gold. This allocation reflects a growth-oriented strategy but comes with higher risk due to the lack of diversification across different asset classes, which can help mitigate volatility and reduce overall portfolio risk.
With 48% of the portfolio invested in technology and significant allocations to communication services and consumer cyclicals, this portfolio is positioned to benefit from growth in these dynamic sectors. However, this concentration also exposes it to sector-specific risks, such as regulatory changes or economic shifts that disproportionately affect these industries.
The geographic allocation is almost entirely in North America (99%), providing little to no exposure to international markets. This concentration in a single region, while potentially capitalizing on the growth of the U.S. market, limits global diversification and increases susceptibility to U.S.-specific economic downturns.
The focus on mega (61%) and big (23%) cap stocks aligns with the portfolio's growth and risk profile, favoring established companies with potentially more stable returns. However, the limited exposure to medium, small, and micro-cap stocks restricts opportunities for higher growth rates these smaller companies might offer, albeit with increased risk.
The high correlation between the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF and the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares indicates overlapping investments, which reduces the effectiveness of diversification. This redundancy suggests that the portfolio may not be as diversified as it could be, even within its growth-oriented strategy.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
While the portfolio's current strategy is growth-oriented, there's room for optimization, particularly in reducing overlap between highly correlated assets. By diversifying more effectively across different sectors, asset classes, or geographies, the portfolio could potentially achieve a more favorable risk-return profile, as indicated by an optimal portfolio expected return of 14.40% with a risk level of 12.81%.
The portfolio's dividend yield is relatively low, with a total yield of 0.49%. This is consistent with the growth-focused strategy, as such investments typically reinvest earnings rather than distribute them as dividends. For investors seeking income, this may not be ideal, but for those focused on capital appreciation, this aligns with their objectives.
The overall portfolio costs are impressively low, with a total expense ratio (TER) of 0.04%. This efficiency in managing costs is beneficial for long-term growth, as lower costs directly translate to higher net returns for the investor. Keeping costs minimal is a sound strategy, especially in a portfolio aiming for growth through compounding returns.
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