Momentum tilted global growth portfolio with strong recent gains and moderate drawdowns
Report created on Jun 20, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
5/5
Positions
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SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 33.33% -
FR Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF
FRDM - US02072L6074 25.00% -
ID Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF
IDMO - US46138E2220 25.00% -
IA iShares Gold Trust
IAU - US4642852044 13.33% -
FB Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust
FBTC - US3159481098 3.33%
This portfolio is built mainly from four ETFs plus a small direct crypto position, with a clear growth tilt. About a third sits in a US momentum fund, half is split between international and emerging markets equity strategies, a bit over 13% is in gold, and roughly 3% is in a bitcoin trust. So the backbone is equities, supported by a real asset and a small speculative slice. Structurally, this is a relatively clean, high‑conviction mix rather than a long list of small positions. That kind of concentrated structure makes it easy to understand what’s driving results: momentum‑style stocks around the world, with gold and bitcoin adding their own distinct behavior on top.
Growth
Over the period shown, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $2,215, which is a very strong outcome. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.82% far exceeded both the US market (21.34%) and the global market (22.07%). CAGR is like your average “speed” over the journey, smoothing out bumps along the way. Max drawdown, the worst peak‑to‑trough fall, was -13.15%, which was actually milder than the benchmarks. The drawdown also recovered within about a month after bottoming. This combination of high return and relatively contained drawdowns has been unusually favorable, and it’s important to remember such strong runs don’t persist forever.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses the portfolio’s past behavior to simulate many random future paths and see a range of possible outcomes. It’s like replaying history 1,000 different ways to see what could happen, not to predict a single number. Here, the median 15‑year outcome for $1,000 is about $2,564, with most scenarios falling between roughly $1,759 and $3,855. The very wide 5–95% band ($973–$6,875) shows how uncertain long‑term results can be, even with the same starting mix. The average simulated annual return of 7.51% is far lower than the recent CAGR, underlining that the backtest period was unusually strong and shouldn’t be seen as a baseline.
Asset classes
- Stocks 83%
- Other 13%
- Crypto 3%
By asset class, around 83% of this portfolio is in stocks, 13% in “other” (gold), and 3% in crypto. That’s a strong tilt toward growth assets whose values can move around a lot day‑to‑day but historically have offered higher long‑term return potential than cash or bonds. The gold slice introduces a real asset that often behaves differently from equities, especially during stress or inflation scares. The small crypto allocation adds another return driver, but one that can be very volatile. Compared with broad global benchmarks, this mix is clearly more aggressive because it lacks bonds, yet it still has some diversification across different kinds of risk, not just stocks.
Sectors
- Technology 30%
- Financials 18%
- Industrials 11%
- Basic Materials 5%
- Telecommunications 4%
- Crypto 3%
- Utilities 3%
- Health Care 3%
- Consumer Discretionary 3%
- Consumer Staples 3%
- Energy 2%
- Real Estate 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector-wise, the portfolio is led by technology at about 30%, followed by financials at 18% and industrials at 11%, with a long tail of smaller sector exposures. This is typical for momentum strategies, which often pick up companies in sectors that have been leading the market. A tech‑heavier allocation can boost returns during periods of innovation and strong earnings growth, but it can also mean sharper moves when interest rates rise or sentiment shifts away from growth themes. The smaller allocations to areas like energy, utilities, and real estate offer some balance, yet the sector profile is still clearly tilted toward economically sensitive, growth‑oriented parts of the market.
Regions
- North America 38%
- Asia Developed 13%
- Europe Developed 12%
- Latin America 7%
- Japan 5%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Europe Emerging 3%
- Africa/Middle East 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, the portfolio is quite global. Roughly 38% is in North America, with significant slices in developed Asia, developed Europe, Latin America, Japan, and smaller positions across emerging regions. This is more internationally diversified than many US‑centric portfolios and lines up well with a global equity mindset. Such spread means portfolio outcomes aren’t tied to a single economy or policy environment. However, broad exposure also brings sensitivity to global cycles and currency moves. Compared with global benchmarks, the allocation looks well‑balanced, with no single region dominating overwhelmingly. That geographic mix supports the high diversification score and helps smooth out country‑specific shocks over time.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 40%
- Large-cap 34%
- No data 13%
- Mid-cap 9%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
By market capitalization, about 40% of the portfolio sits in mega‑caps and 34% in large‑caps, with around 9% in mid‑caps and some holdings where size data isn’t available. Mega‑caps are the largest, most established companies and often anchor broad indices. A heavy tilt toward them can reduce company‑specific risk because these businesses tend to be more diversified and liquid. On the other hand, a smaller mid‑cap slice means less exposure to that more volatile but sometimes faster‑growing segment. Overall, this size profile is fairly similar to major global benchmarks, which also lean heavily toward the largest companies, reinforcing a relatively stable core underneath the momentum style.
True holdings
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MU Micron Technology Inc 3.66%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 2.73%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
SS Samsung Electronics Co Ltd 2.65%
Part of fund(s):- Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.18%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 2.09%
Part of fund(s):- Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF
-
00 SK Hynix Inc 1.81%
Part of fund(s):- Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.51%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 1.36%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 1.34%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.30%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 20.63%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, a few names stand out as repeated exposures, particularly in technology and semiconductors. Micron, NVIDIA, Samsung Electronics, Broadcom, TSMC, SK Hynix, Lam Research, and AMD together represent a meaningful slice of the tracked portion. This kind of overlap creates “hidden” concentration: even though you own several funds, they can converge on the same winners. Only about 36% of the portfolio is covered by these top‑10 lists, so actual overlap is probably higher. This pattern is typical of momentum‑based strategies, which often cluster into recent leaders, especially in areas like chips and advanced computing.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure shows a very strong tilt away from the size factor (15%) and a strong tilt toward momentum (75%), with other factors roughly neutral. Factors are underlying characteristics, like ingredients in a recipe, that help explain why returns behave the way they do. A high momentum tilt means the portfolio heavily emphasizes stocks that have recently been strong performers, which can amplify gains in trending markets but can also lead to sharper pullbacks when trends reverse. The very low size exposure indicates a clear bias toward larger companies rather than smaller ones. This can reduce some risk but may miss out on certain small‑cap dynamics.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 33.33% 35.7% -
Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF
Weight: 25.00% 29.5% -
Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF
Weight: 25.00% 22.8% -
iShares Gold Trust
Weight: 13.33% 7.6% -
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust
Weight: 3.33% 4.4%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. Here, the three main equity funds make up 83.33% of the weight but about 88% of total risk, with the emerging markets ETF punching slightly above its weight. The bitcoin trust, at only 3.33% weight, contributes 4.35% of risk, reflecting its high volatility even in a tiny slice. Gold, in contrast, accounts for 13.33% of the portfolio but only 7.64% of risk, suggesting it’s a stabilizer relative to the equities and crypto. This pattern is consistent with growth‑oriented portfolios that use gold as a partial diversifier.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑return optimization chart compares the current mix with what’s called the efficient frontier, which shows the best expected return for each risk level using these same holdings in different weights. The current portfolio has a strong Sharpe ratio of 1.72 (a measure of return per unit of risk), but the optimal mix on the frontier reaches 2.11 at slightly lower risk and higher return. Because the portfolio sits about 3.32 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level, the data suggests the same ingredients could be combined more efficiently. That doesn’t critique the holdings themselves; it simply shows that historical interactions between them would have allowed a somewhat smoother ride.
Dividends
- Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF 1.50%
- Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF 3.40%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.60%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.43%
The overall dividend yield is about 1.43%, with the international developed momentum ETF contributing the highest yield at 3.40%. The US momentum fund yields only 0.60%, which is typical for strategies that focus on fast‑growing companies that reinvest rather than pay large dividends. In a growth‑focused portfolio like this, dividends are a modest side contributor rather than the main story. Most of the historical return has come from price changes, not income. It’s also worth noting that dividend yields can change over time as markets move and companies adjust their payout policies, so this snapshot is just one point in time.
Ongoing product costs
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust 0.25%
- Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF 0.49%
- iShares Gold Trust 0.25%
- Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF 0.25%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.27%
The weighted total expense ratio (TER) for the portfolio is about 0.27%, which is impressively low for a set of specialized ETFs and a bitcoin trust. TER is the annual fee charged by each fund, expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. Keeping this number low helps more of the portfolio’s gross return stay in your pocket over the long run. The lowest fee comes from the US momentum ETF at 0.13%, while the emerging markets ETF is higher at 0.49%, reflecting its niche strategy. Overall, the cost profile is a structural strength here and supports better compounding over many years.
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