The portfolio is predominantly invested in stocks (91%), with a significant concentration in Eli Lilly and Company (44.97%) and a notable allocation to technology through Apple Inc (8.93%). The remainder is spread across three mutual funds with different focuses, providing some degree of diversification. However, the heavy weighting towards a single stock significantly increases the portfolio's risk profile, despite its moderate diversification classification.
Historically, the portfolio has demonstrated a strong Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 22.62%, albeit with a maximum drawdown of -21.92%. This suggests that while the portfolio has been capable of delivering substantial returns, it has also experienced significant volatility, particularly due to its heavy concentration in a single stock. The days contributing to 90% of returns being so few indicate that the portfolio's performance is highly dependent on short, sharp gains, which can be risky.
The Monte Carlo simulation, which uses historical data to forecast future performance, shows a wide range of outcomes. With only 384 out of 1,000 simulations resulting in positive returns, and a median projection of a -37% return, there's a high level of uncertainty. This points towards the need for a more balanced approach to mitigate risk while still aiming for growth.
The asset allocation is heavily skewed towards stocks, with minimal exposure to bonds (6%) and cash (2%). This allocation supports a growth-oriented strategy but also increases the portfolio’s sensitivity to market volatility. Diversifying more into bonds or other asset classes could provide a buffer during stock market downturns.
Sector allocation is heavily concentrated in healthcare (51%) and technology (20%), which can offer high growth but also high volatility. The underrepresentation of sectors like energy, utilities, and basic materials, which can offer stability, suggests an opportunity to balance the portfolio's risk and return profile better.
With 91% of assets allocated in North America, the portfolio has limited global diversification. Expanding into developed European or Asian markets could provide exposure to different economic cycles and opportunities, potentially reducing geographic risk and enhancing returns.
The focus on mega (71%) and big-cap (14%) stocks aligns with the portfolio’s growth and risk profile but limits exposure to mid and small-cap stocks that could offer higher growth potential. Considering a more balanced market cap allocation could enhance diversification and potential for returns.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Using the Efficient Frontier to optimize the portfolio could improve the risk-return ratio. Currently, the heavy concentration in a single stock and sector indicates that the portfolio may not be positioned optimally along the Efficient Frontier. Diversifying more broadly across sectors and asset classes could enhance returns for the same level of risk.
The overall dividend yield of 1.09% suggests that income generation is not a primary goal of this portfolio. Given its growth orientation, this is expected, but incorporating higher-yielding assets could provide a steady income stream and reduce volatility.
The total expense ratio (TER) of 0.27% is impressively low, which is beneficial for long-term performance. Keeping costs low is crucial in maximizing returns, and this portfolio manages to do so effectively.
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