Concentrated US growth portfolio with strong tech tilt and historically high returns but notable risk clustering

Report created on Apr 20, 2026

Risk profile

  • Secure
    Speculative

The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.

Diversification profile

  • Focused
    Diversified

The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.

Positions

This portfolio is fully invested in stocks, with about four-fifths in broad index funds and one-fifth in two individual companies. The largest piece is a 50% position in a US large‑cap index fund, with smaller slices in total US market, international stocks, and a dedicated technology fund. Microsoft and Walmart each sit at 10% as single‑stock positions. Structurally, this is a growth‑oriented equity mix rather than a blend of stocks and bonds. That means day‑to‑day moves will generally be larger than in a mixed portfolio. The heavy use of broad index funds helps diversification, while the individual stocks and tech fund introduce focused bets on specific companies and themes.

Growth Info

Over the 2016–2026 period, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $4,926, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.36%. CAGR is like average speed on a road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. This growth outpaced both a broad US market benchmark and a global benchmark by 2.57 and 5.20 percentage points per year, respectively. The worst peak‑to‑trough drop was about -29.6%, slightly milder than benchmark drawdowns around -33%. That combination of higher return with slightly smaller maximum drawdown is a strong historical profile, though it depends heavily on a tech‑friendly decade. Past results like this show what has happened, not what must happen next.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo projection simulates many possible 15‑year paths using the past as a guide, then shows the range of outcomes. It’s like running 1,000 alternate timelines for the same portfolio. The median path turns $1,000 into about $2,750, or an implied annualized return around 8.06% across simulations, noticeably lower than the historical 17% CAGR. The wide range — roughly $939 to $7,450 for 90% of scenarios — highlights how uncertain long‑term equity outcomes can be. About three‑quarters of simulations finish above the starting $1,000, which is typical for a stock‑heavy mix, but the downside paths remind that equities can also deliver long weak stretches.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

All of this portfolio sits in equities, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternatives. That all‑stock setup aligns with a growth‑oriented risk profile and is consistent with the “Growth Investors” classification and mid‑high risk score of 5/7. A 100% equity allocation usually means sharper swings, especially during market stress, but also higher long‑term return potential compared with adding lower‑risk assets. Because broad funds are used, the equity exposure itself is diversified across many companies, which helps spread single‑company risk. Still, the absence of stabilizing assets means the portfolio’s ups and downs will closely track the equity cycle rather than being smoothed by bonds or cash.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    41%
  • Consumer Staples
    14%
  • Financials
    10%
  • Industrials
    7%
  • Telecommunications
    7%
  • Health Care
    7%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    6%
  • Energy
    3%
  • Basic Materials
    2%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Real Estate
    2%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    1%

Sector exposure is clearly tilted toward technology at 41%, well above what’s typical in broad global or total‑market benchmarks. Consumer staples stand out at 14%, helped by the dedicated Walmart position, while financials, industrials, telecom, and health care each sit in the mid‑single digits. Smaller slices appear in energy, materials, utilities, and real estate. A tech‑heavy profile often benefits during periods of innovation and low or falling interest rates but can be more volatile when rates rise or when growth expectations reset. The noticeable consumer staples slice, including Walmart, can provide some relative defensiveness in downturns because staples spending tends to be steadier, partially balancing that growth tilt.

Regions Info

  • North America
    90%
  • Europe Developed
    4%
  • Japan
    2%
  • Asia Developed
    1%
  • Asia Emerging
    1%

Geographically, the portfolio is heavily concentrated in North America at about 90%, with only modest exposure to developed Europe, Japan, and small allocations to developed and emerging Asia. This is more US‑centric than a typical global equity benchmark, where non‑US markets represent a much larger share of total world market value. A strong US weighting has historically been rewarded over the last decade, which helps explain the high past returns. At the same time, it ties results closely to the US economy, currency, and policy environment. The smaller international sleeve does introduce some global diversification, but foreign markets still play a secondary role in the overall risk and return pattern.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    57%
  • Large-cap
    26%
  • Mid-cap
    14%
  • Small-cap
    2%
  • Micro-cap
    1%

By market capitalization, the portfolio is led by mega‑caps at 57%, followed by large‑caps at 26%. Mid‑caps and smaller companies together make up around 17%. This structure leans toward the biggest, most established public companies, which often have more stable business models and deeper liquidity than small‑caps. It also means performance is heavily driven by a relatively small group of very large firms, especially in technology. The presence of mid‑ and small‑caps via the total market fund does add some diversity in company size, contributing exposure to potentially faster‑growing but more volatile businesses without dominating the overall risk profile, which remains primarily large‑company driven.

True holdings Info

  • Microsoft Corporation
    13.48%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    Direct holding 10.00%
  • Walmart Inc.
    10.00%
  • NVIDIA Corporation
    5.64%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Apple Inc
    4.92%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Amazon.com Inc
    1.82%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Broadcom Inc
    1.75%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Alphabet Inc Class A
    1.50%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Alphabet Inc Class C
    1.20%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Meta Platforms Inc.
    1.12%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Tesla Inc
    0.94%
    Part of fund(s):
    • LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
    • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
  • Top 10 total 42.36%

Looking through the funds, Microsoft shows up twice: as a 10% direct holding and with an additional 3.48% via ETFs, for a total of 13.48%. This creates a meaningful concentration in one company, even though it appears diversified across multiple positions. Walmart’s 10% is all direct, so there’s no hidden overlap, but big tech names like NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, Broadcom, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla also appear through the index funds. Because only ETF top‑10s are captured, overlap is likely understated. This under‑the‑surface clustering means a handful of large tech stocks quietly drive a big share of behavior, even though the portfolio is mostly in broad funds.

Factors Info

Value
Preference for undervalued stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Size
Exposure to smaller companies
Low
Data availability: 100%
Momentum
Exposure to recently outperforming stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Quality
Preference for financially healthy companies
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Yield
Preference for dividend-paying stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Low Volatility
Preference for stable, lower-risk stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%

Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.

Factor exposures here sit close to “Neutral” across value, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility, meaning they broadly resemble the overall market. Size is mildly low at 36%, reflecting the heavy lean toward larger companies and less emphasis on smaller stocks. Factors are like underlying personality traits — for example, quality focuses on financially strong companies, while momentum focuses on recent winners. A largely neutral factor profile suggests the portfolio is not strongly tilted toward any one style, so performance is more likely to track broad market patterns than to be driven by distinct factor bets. The slight size tilt toward big companies reinforces the mega‑cap dominance already seen.

Risk contribution Info

  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    Weight: 50.00%
    50.0%
  • Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
    Weight: 10.00%
    13.0%
  • Microsoft Corporation
    Weight: 10.00%
    12.7%
  • Fidelity Total Market Index Fund
    Weight: 10.00%
    10.1%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
    Weight: 10.00%
    8.2%
  • Top 5 risk contribution 93.9%

Risk contribution shows how much each holding adds to total volatility, not just how big it is. The 50% S&P 500 ETF contributes roughly 50% of risk, as expected. More interestingly, the 10% tech ETF and 10% Microsoft position each contribute about 13% of risk, meaning they punch above their weight. Their risk/weight ratios above 1.0 indicate they’re more volatile or less diversified than the broader holdings. The international fund’s risk share is lower than its weight, at about 8%, hinting it adds diversification. Overall, the top three positions generate over three‑quarters of total risk, so despite multiple funds, risk is fairly concentrated in a few core exposures.

Redundant positions Info

  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    Fidelity Total Market Index Fund
    High correlation

The correlation data highlights that the S&P 500 ETF and the total US market fund move almost identically. Correlation measures how often assets move together, on a scale from -1 to 1, and these two are very close to 1. That means they provide very similar exposure to US equities, especially large‑cap names, so holding both doesn’t dramatically change diversification. In downturns, they are likely to rise and fall in tandem. The other holdings, particularly international stocks, are not listed among the highly correlated pairs, suggesting they may offer somewhat different behavior, though still equity‑like. Diversification relies not just on number of holdings, but on how differently they move.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

On the risk‑return chart, the current portfolio sits below the efficient frontier, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.75. The Sharpe ratio compares excess return over a risk‑free rate to volatility, like scoring how much “reward per unit of bumpiness” you’re getting. The optimal portfolio using the same holdings reaches a Sharpe of 1.15, while the minimum‑variance version sits at 0.85. Being 3.67 percentage points below the frontier at the current risk level indicates there’s room, in theory, to improve risk‑adjusted returns just by reweighting what’s already here. It’s worth noting that this analysis is based on historical relationships, which can change over time.

Dividends Info

  • Fidelity Total Market Index Fund 1.00%
  • Microsoft Corporation 0.80%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.80%
  • Walmart Inc. 0.80%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.09%

The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 1.09%, which is relatively modest and consistent with a growth‑leaning, large‑cap US focus. Yield is highest in the international fund at 2.8%, while Microsoft and Walmart both yield around 0.8%. Dividend yield represents the annual cash payout relative to the value invested and can be an important part of total return for some portfolios. Here, most of the historical return has come from price growth rather than income. That aligns with the strong tech and mega‑cap exposure, since many of these companies either pay low dividends or focus more on reinvestment and growth than on distributing cash to shareholders.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Fidelity Total Market Index Fund 0.02%
  • Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares 0.10%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.03%

Costs are impressively low across the board, with a total expense ratio (TER) of about 0.03%. TER is the annual fee charged by funds, expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. The most expensive holding here is the tech ETF at 0.10%, while the total market fund charges only 0.02%. Low costs matter because they’re one of the few things investors can reliably control: every dollar not spent on fees stays invested and can compound over time. This fee profile is strongly aligned with best practices in index investing and provides a solid foundation for long‑term performance, especially when combined with broad, rules‑based funds.

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