This portfolio is heavily weighted towards US equities, primarily through the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, which constitutes 70% of the portfolio. The inclusion of Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF and Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund ETF Shares, each at 10%, introduces diversification into smaller and mid-sized companies, while the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares, also at 10%, provides a modest international presence. This composition reflects a growth-oriented strategy with a moderate level of diversification across market capitalizations and a slight tilt towards value stocks.
The portfolio has shown a robust Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.52%, despite experiencing a significant maximum drawdown of -35.95%. This performance is indicative of the high-growth potential of US equities but also highlights the volatility and risks associated with a heavily concentrated equity portfolio. The days contributing to 90% of returns being so few suggests that timing the market plays a crucial role in capturing gains, which can be challenging for most investors.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to forecast potential future outcomes, suggest a wide range of possible returns for this portfolio, from a modest 4.6% to an impressive 601.9% at key percentiles. This variability underscores the uncertainty inherent in investing, particularly in a portfolio with a significant allocation to equities. It's important to note that while these simulations can provide insight, they cannot guarantee future performance.
The portfolio's exclusive investment in stocks, with no allocation to cash or other asset classes, positions it for maximum growth potential but also exposes it to higher volatility. This singular focus on equities is suitable for investors with a higher risk tolerance and a longer time horizon, who can withstand the ups and downs of the market without needing to liquidate their investments prematurely.
The sector allocation reveals a significant emphasis on technology and financial services, which together make up 43% of the portfolio. This concentration in sectors that can exhibit high growth but also higher volatility may contribute to the portfolio's overall risk profile. Diversifying across more sectors or reducing the weight in these could potentially smooth out returns and reduce volatility.
With 90% of assets allocated to North America, the portfolio's geographic exposure is heavily skewed towards the US market. This concentration enhances exposure to the growth potential of the US economy but also increases susceptibility to its market-specific risks. Increasing international diversification could provide a buffer against US market downturns and access to growth opportunities in other regions.
The distribution across market capitalizations shows a balanced exposure to mega, big, and medium-sized companies, with smaller allocations to small and micro-cap stocks. This balance is beneficial for risk management, as larger companies typically offer stability, while smaller companies provide growth potential. However, the portfolio may benefit from a slight increase in small and micro-cap exposure to enhance growth prospects.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Using the Efficient Frontier to optimize this portfolio could potentially enhance the risk-return profile by adjusting the asset allocation to achieve the best possible balance between expected return and risk. While the current composition is growth-focused, there may be opportunities to improve diversification without sacrificing significant growth potential, thereby achieving a more efficient portfolio.
The portfolio's dividend yield stands at 1.51%, with the highest yield coming from the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares. While dividends contribute to the portfolio's total return, the focus seems to be more on capital appreciation given the growth-oriented composition. Investors seeking regular income might consider increasing allocations to higher-yielding assets.
The overall portfolio cost, represented by a Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.06%, is impressively low, which is beneficial for long-term growth as costs can significantly erode investment returns over time. This low-cost approach is consistent with the use of ETFs, which are known for their efficiency and lower expense ratios compared to actively managed funds.
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