A speculative high-risk portfolio with a strong focus on US equities and minimal international exposure

Report created on Aug 28, 2025

Risk profile Info

7/7
Speculative
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

3/5
Moderately Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

The portfolio is heavily weighted towards the Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund, making up 85% of the allocation, followed by the Schwab International Index Fund at 13%. The remaining 2% is split equally between the Fidelity Mid Cap and Small Cap Index Funds. This composition suggests a strong belief in the performance of large-cap US equities, with minimal diversification across market capitalizations and limited international exposure. While this strategy has the potential for high returns, it also carries significant risk, especially in volatile markets.

Growth Info

The portfolio has shown an impressive Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 40.77%, although it experienced a maximum drawdown of -33.77%. These figures highlight the portfolio's speculative nature, capable of substantial gains but also significant losses. The days contributing to 90% of returns being so few suggest that the portfolio's performance is highly reliant on exceptional market days, which can be unpredictable.

Projection Info

Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to predict future outcomes, show a wide range of potential returns for this portfolio. The 50th percentile projection suggests a 580.3% return, indicating optimistic growth potential. However, the presence of a 5th percentile projection at -21.5% underscores the high-risk nature of this portfolio. These simulations are useful for understanding potential volatility but should not be the sole basis for investment decisions due to their reliance on past performance.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

The portfolio is entirely invested in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash, or other asset classes. This singular focus on equities maximizes potential returns but also increases risk, particularly in down markets. Diversification across different asset classes can mitigate risk by providing a buffer against stock market volatility.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    31%
  • Financials
    15%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    10%
  • Health Care
    10%
  • Industrials
    9%
  • Telecommunications
    9%
  • Consumer Staples
    6%
  • Energy
    3%
  • Utilities
    3%
  • Basic Materials
    2%
  • Real Estate
    2%

The sector allocation is heavily skewed towards Technology at 31%, followed by Financial Services and Consumer Cyclical. This concentration in high-growth sectors can drive significant returns but also exposes the portfolio to sector-specific downturns. Broadening the sectoral exposure could help in reducing volatility and improving long-term stability.

Regions Info

  • North America
    87%
  • Europe Developed
    9%
  • Japan
    3%
  • Australasia
    1%
  • Asia Developed
    1%

With 87% of assets in North America and minimal exposure to emerging and developed markets outside the US, the portfolio's geographic distribution limits its global diversification. Increasing international exposure, especially to emerging markets, could offer growth opportunities and risk mitigation through geographic diversification.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    46%
  • Large-cap
    34%
  • Mid-cap
    17%
  • Small-cap
    2%

The portfolio's market capitalization exposure is predominantly in mega (46%) and big (34%) cap stocks, with minimal investment in medium, small, and micro caps. This bias towards larger companies can offer stability but may limit growth potential from smaller, more dynamic firms. A more balanced market cap distribution could enhance returns and reduce risk.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

While the portfolio shows a strong past performance, its risk-return profile could potentially be optimized further. Utilizing the Efficient Frontier concept could help in identifying a mix of assets that offers the best possible return for a given level of risk. However, this optimization is based on historical data and assumptions, which do not guarantee future performance.

Dividends Info

  • FIDELITY MID CAP INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL PREMIUM CLASS 1.00%
  • FIDELITY SMALL CAP INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL PREMIUM CLASS 0.80%
  • SCHWAB INTERNATIONAL INDEX FUND SELECT SHARES 2.70%
  • Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund 1.10%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.30%

The portfolio's average dividend yield is 1.30%, contributing to its total returns. While not the primary focus, dividends offer a passive income stream and can provide a cushion during market downturns. Considering higher dividend-yielding investments could enhance income without significantly increasing risk.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • FIDELITY MID CAP INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL PREMIUM CLASS 0.02%
  • FIDELITY SMALL CAP INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL PREMIUM CLASS 0.02%
  • SCHWAB INTERNATIONAL INDEX FUND SELECT SHARES 0.06%
  • Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund 0.02%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.03%

With an overall Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.03%, the portfolio benefits from low management costs, which supports better long-term performance by minimizing the drag on returns. Maintaining focus on cost-efficient funds will continue to be advantageous.

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