Your portfolio is heavily weighted towards technology, making up 49% of the allocation, with significant investments in both index funds and ETFs that track large-cap companies. The Fidelity 500 Index Fund, making up 40% of your portfolio, provides broad exposure to the top companies in the U.S., while the other three positions are more targeted towards technology and momentum strategies. This composition suggests a single-focused diversification strategy, heavily reliant on the performance of the U.S. stock market and, more specifically, the technology sector.
Historical performance shows a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 25.80%, which is impressive but comes with a Max Drawdown of -42.41%. This indicates that while the portfolio has the potential for high returns, it also carries a significant risk of large losses, especially during market downturns. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in just 35 days suggests that the portfolio's performance is highly volatile and dependent on a few key days for gains.
Monte Carlo simulations project a wide range of outcomes, with a median increase of 2,797.9% but a possibility as low as 266.5% in the 5th percentile. This wide dispersion underscores the high-risk, high-reward nature of your current asset allocation. While the simulations show a predominantly positive outlook, it's important to remember that these projections are based on historical data and cannot guarantee future performance.
The portfolio's asset classes are heavily skewed towards stocks (97%), with a minimal cash holding (3%) and no bond investments. This allocation aligns with a growth-oriented investment strategy but limits the portfolio's ability to hedge against stock market volatility. Diversifying into other asset classes, such as bonds or real estate, could provide more stability during downturns.
The sector allocation reveals a strong emphasis on technology, followed by communication services and financial services. While the technology sector can offer substantial growth opportunities, it also comes with higher volatility and risk, especially in the face of regulatory changes or economic downturns. A more balanced sector distribution could help mitigate these risks.
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely invested in North America (99%), with a token exposure to developed Europe (1%). This concentration in the U.S. market enhances the portfolio's vulnerability to regional economic fluctuations. Increasing geographic diversification, especially towards emerging markets, could potentially enhance returns and reduce risk.
The focus on mega (48%) and big (33%) cap stocks provides stability and reduces the volatility inherent in smaller companies. However, the underrepresentation of medium and small-cap stocks limits the portfolio's growth potential. Incorporating a broader range of market capitalizations could improve diversification and enhance overall returns.
The high correlation between the ProShares Ultra QQQ and the Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund indicates overlapping investments that do not contribute to diversification. Reducing exposure to similar assets can help spread risk more effectively across the portfolio.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The current portfolio can benefit from optimization to improve the risk-return profile. The Efficient Frontier analysis suggests that reallocating assets to reduce overlap and increase diversification across sectors, asset classes, and geographies could achieve a more efficient balance of risk and return.
The overall dividend yield of the portfolio is 0.64%, which is relatively modest. Given the growth focus of the portfolio, this is not unexpected. However, incorporating assets with higher dividend yields could provide a steady income stream and reduce volatility.
The total expense ratio (TER) of 0.24% is relatively low, which is beneficial for long-term growth as costs can significantly erode investment returns over time. Maintaining low investment costs should remain a priority in any portfolio adjustments.
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