This portfolio is characterized by a significant concentration in a single common stock, Cytodyn Inc, making up 33% of the portfolio, alongside substantial allocations to broad market ETFs, primarily in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares. This mix indicates a speculative approach, leaning heavily on the performance of one company while attempting to balance with diversified ETF investments. The portfolio's diversification is moderate, with a tilt towards higher-risk, potentially higher-reward investments.
The portfolio has demonstrated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.36%, although it has experienced a maximum drawdown of -51.70%. These figures suggest a volatile investment journey, where the portfolio's value has seen significant fluctuations. The days contributing to 90% of returns being limited to just four indicates that the portfolio's performance is highly dependent on short, sharp gains, underscoring its speculative nature.
Monte Carlo simulations, which forecast potential future performance based on historical data, show a wide range of outcomes for this portfolio. Notably, the 5th percentile outcome suggests a nearly complete loss, highlighting extreme risk. However, the median projection indicates potential for recovery and gain. It's crucial to remember these simulations are based on past trends, and actual future performance could diverge significantly.
The portfolio is entirely invested in stocks, with no allocation to cash, bonds, or other asset classes. This allocation underscores a high-risk strategy, as stocks are generally more volatile than other asset types. While this can lead to higher returns, it also increases the risk of substantial losses, particularly in market downturns.
Sector allocation is heavily weighted towards healthcare and technology, comprising 60% of the portfolio. This concentration in sectors known for volatility and rapid growth potential further emphasizes the speculative nature of the portfolio. While these sectors can offer significant returns, they also expose the portfolio to sector-specific risks and market fluctuations.
Geographic exposure is predominantly North American (91%), with minimal diversification into international markets. This concentration enhances exposure to the economic and political risks specific to the North American market. Expanding into more diverse international holdings could mitigate some of this risk, offering a more balanced global exposure.
The portfolio's market capitalization breakdown shows a diverse range, with a notable tilt towards small-cap stocks (37%). Small-cap stocks often offer higher growth potential but come with increased risk and volatility. The presence of mega and big-cap stocks helps to balance this, providing stability through more established companies.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the portfolio's speculative nature and high concentration in specific sectors and a single stock, there's room for optimization towards the Efficient Frontier. This would involve adjusting allocations to achieve a better risk-return balance, potentially by diversifying further across sectors, geographies, and asset classes, without necessarily sacrificing growth potential.
The dividend yields across the ETFs provide a modest income stream, with the total portfolio yield at 0.89%. While not the primary focus of this speculative portfolio, dividends offer a passive income component, which can contribute to total returns, especially in volatile market periods.
The portfolio benefits from relatively low costs, with a Total Expense Ratio (TER) averaging 0.03%. This efficient cost structure is commendable, as lower costs can significantly enhance long-term returns by reducing the drag on investment growth.
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