Strongly momentum tilted US stock portfolio with tech focus and efficient risk adjusted performance
Report created on Apr 23, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
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SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 60.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF
SPHQ - US46137V2410 15.00% -
XM Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF
XMMO - US46137V4648 15.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
SCHD - US8085247976 10.00%
This portfolio is built from four US equity ETFs, with 100% in stocks and no bonds or cash layer. The core is a large-cap momentum fund at 60%, supported by 15% in large-cap quality, 15% in mid-cap momentum, and 10% in a US dividend equity ETF. So most of the weight leans into momentum-style investing, with a smaller tilt toward quality and dividends. A concentrated, all-equity structure like this can offer strong growth potential but will naturally move more with stock markets. The mix of factor styles means returns are driven more by how momentum and quality perform than by broad market averages alone.
Growth
From 2016 to April 2026, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $5,061, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.13%. CAGR is like your “average speed” over the trip, smoothing out ups and downs. This beat both the US market (about 16.88% per year) and the global market (about 13.88% per year). The max drawdown, or worst drop from peak to trough, was about -32%, similar to broad markets during early 2020. That shows the portfolio has taken on market-like downside but delivered higher long-run growth. As always, past performance shows how it behaved, not what it will necessarily do next.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses many simulated paths, based on historical patterns, to estimate where a $1,000 investment might land after 15 years. Here, the median outcome is about $2,721, which translates to an annualized return around 8% across all simulations. The “likely range” (middle half of outcomes) runs from roughly $1,815 to $4,199, while 90% of scenarios fall between about $966 and $6,885. This wide spread illustrates uncertainty: the same portfolio history can lead to very different futures. Importantly, these simulations assume that past volatility and return patterns repeat, which may not hold if market conditions or factor returns change meaningfully.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio sits in one asset class: equities. That makes the structure simple and easy to understand, but it also means diversification is happening only inside the stock bucket, not across different asset types. Compared to a broad “balanced” mix that might include bonds or cash, this is a growth-tilted setup that will usually move more with equity cycles. Within stocks, the use of multiple ETFs still spreads risk across hundreds of companies, so it is diversified at the company level. However, with no offset from bonds or other assets, portfolio swings will largely mirror stock market risk rather than being dampened by other return drivers.
Sectors
- Technology 37%
- Industrials 19%
- Health Care 9%
- Financials 7%
- Consumer Staples 7%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Discretionary 3%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is clearly tech-heavy at about 37%, with industrials the next largest at 19%, and health care, financials, consumer staples, telecom, and energy making up most of the rest. This is more technology-focused than broad US benchmarks, which tends to boost returns when tech and related industries are leading but can amplify volatility when sentiment turns against them or interest rates rise. The presence of staples, health care, and utilities provides some defensive ballast, as those areas often move less dramatically. Overall, the sector mix shows intentional tilts rather than a neutral, benchmark-like spread, which helps explain the strong past performance and higher sensitivity to specific growth themes.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely concentrated in North America, with about 99% exposure and only a token 1% in developed Europe. That tight focus aligns well with US-based investors who prefer to keep currency and economic exposure close to home. It has also been a tailwind over the past decade, when US markets outpaced many international regions. The flip side is that the portfolio’s fortunes are closely tied to the US economy, policy decisions, and corporate earnings. Compared with a global index, this leaves out large portions of the world’s market capitalization, so diversification across different economic cycles and policy regimes is limited.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 50%
- Mega-cap 24%
- Mid-cap 20%
- Small-cap 7%
By market cap, the portfolio leans strongly to larger companies: mega-cap and large-cap together make up about 74%, with mid-caps at 20% and small-caps just 7%. Larger firms tend to be more established, with deeper liquidity and more analyst coverage, which can contribute to relatively more stable trading than tiny companies. The notable mid-cap slice, especially through the mid-cap momentum ETF, adds some exposure to faster-growing, more volatile businesses that can move more sharply in both directions. Compared to a pure large-cap index, this structure slightly broadens the opportunity set while still keeping most risk anchored in well-known, sizable companies.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.66%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 4.81%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 3.60%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.03%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 2.85%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 2.62%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.40%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
XO Exxon Mobil Corp 2.07%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
CA Caterpillar Inc 1.63%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.59%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 30.26%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, a handful of names show up prominently, including NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron, Alphabet (both share classes), and Lam Research. These overlaps mean that even though the portfolio uses several funds, a few large technology and related companies account for meaningful underlying exposure. For example, NVIDIA alone makes up around 5.7% of the total when adding its presence across funds. Hidden concentration like this is common in factor and US-focused portfolios, especially when many funds draw from similar large-cap universes. Since only ETF top-10 positions are visible here, overall overlap is likely higher than these figures indicate.
Factors
Factor exposure shows a strong tilt toward momentum at about 69%, while value, size, quality, and low volatility sit near neutral levels. Factor exposure is like checking which “personality traits” the portfolio leans into—momentum, in this case, means owning stocks that have recently performed well. Momentum strategies can shine in strong, trending markets, helping explain the portfolio’s outperformance versus the US and global benchmarks historically. However, they can be more vulnerable during sharp reversals or sudden style rotations, when yesterday’s winners quickly fall out of favor. The relatively low yield exposure reflects a focus on price appreciation rather than income.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 60.00% 63.3% -
Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF
Weight: 15.00% 16.1% -
Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF
Weight: 15.00% 13.4% -
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
Weight: 10.00% 7.2%
Risk contribution data shows that the largest holding, the S&P 500 Momentum ETF at 60% weight, drives about 63% of total portfolio volatility. The mid-cap momentum fund at 15% weight contributes about 16% of risk, while the quality and dividend funds contribute less risk than their weights would suggest. Risk contribution measures how much each holding adds to the overall ups and downs, which can differ from just looking at position size. Here, the three non-dividend funds account for more than 90% of total risk, confirming that the dividend ETF plays a modest stabilizing role, while momentum exposures are the main engine for both gains and drawdowns.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk vs. return chart, this portfolio sits on or very close to the efficient frontier, meaning that for its given holdings, the current mix is already delivering a strong balance between risk and expected return. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of volatility above the risk-free rate, is about 0.82 here, while the optimal mix of these same funds reaches around 0.98 with slightly higher risk and return. The minimum-variance version lowers volatility but also reduces return. Since the current allocation lies effectively on the frontier, the structure is considered efficient: it uses these four ETFs in a way that lines up well with modern portfolio theory’s best achievable trade-offs.
Dividends
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.40%
- Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF 1.10%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.80%
- Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.09%
The overall dividend yield for the portfolio stands at about 1.09%, which is modest and reflects the strong tilt toward momentum and growth-oriented stocks. The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, at around 3.4% yield, is the main income contributor, while the other funds offer lower payouts. Dividends can provide a steady cash flow and a component of total return that doesn’t depend on price gains alone. In this case, most of the portfolio’s historic and projected returns are likely to come from capital appreciation rather than income. That aligns with the growth classification and explains why the yield sits below many dividend-focused or balanced portfolios.
Ongoing product costs
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
- Invesco S&P 500® Quality ETF 0.15%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Invesco S&P MidCap Momentum ETF 0.34%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.16%
The portfolio’s total expense ratio (TER) is around 0.16%, which is impressively low for a multi-ETF, factor-tilted setup. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds, expressed as a percentage of assets—similar to a small ongoing management cost. Keeping this under 0.20% means that only a tiny slice of returns is being consumed by fees each year. Over long periods, lower costs leave more of any gains in the investor’s pocket, and this structure aligns well with cost-conscious best practices. The slightly higher fee on the mid-cap momentum ETF is offset by very low costs on the dividend and large-cap funds, resulting in a competitive blended expense level.
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