Cautious multi asset mix with low tech exposure and strong recent returns over a short history
Report created on Aug 1, 2026Risk profile
3/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
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SP ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF
SPXT - US74347B5571 64.14% -
BC abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF
BCI - US0032611040 19.71% -
WS iShares MSCI World Small-Cap ETF
WSML - IE00BF4RFH31 16.15%
This portfolio is built from three ETFs, with roughly two thirds in a broad US large‑cap fund that excludes technology, one fifth in a diversified commodities strategy, and the rest in global small‑cap stocks. So most of the risk and growth potential comes from equities, with commodities acting as a diversifier and inflation hedge. Because everything is in pooled funds rather than single stocks, the structure is simple and easy to track. The cautious label comes mainly from the tech exclusion and the added “other” bucket, not from a low equity share. With only about 1.3 years of data, though, it’s hard to say how this exact mix behaves across full market cycles.
Growth
Over the 1.3‑year window, $1,000 grew to about $1,317, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.17%. CAGR is like your average speed on a road trip: it smooths out bumps to show the overall pace. The portfolio lagged both the US and global equity benchmarks, which posted CAGRs near 30%, even though its maximum drawdown was slightly smaller at -7.5%. That means it fell a bit less in its worst stretch but also captured less of the upside. With such a short period — in a strong market — these gaps may reflect temporary style differences rather than durable long‑term underperformance.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses the short return history to simulate 1,000 possible 15‑year paths, like rolling dice based on recent volatility and average returns. The median outcome turns $1,000 into around $2,573, with a wide “likely” range from roughly $1,703 to $3,701 and a very broad possible band from $994 to $6,287. The overall average simulated return of 7.27% per year looks reasonable for a mostly equity portfolio. But because the inputs come from only 1.3 years — a tiny sample that may not represent full bull and bear cycles — these numbers should be viewed as rough, educational scenarios rather than firm expectations.
Asset classes
- Stocks 80%
- Other 20%
By asset class, about 80% of the portfolio sits in stocks and 20% in “other,” driven by the broad commodities ETF. That means the main driver of long‑term growth and risk is still equities, but there is a meaningful slice in assets that can respond differently to inflation, interest rates, or supply shocks. Compared with a pure stock index, this blend can sometimes cushion equity swings, especially when commodity prices move independently. However, commodities can be volatile on their own, so the effect isn’t guaranteed. With limited history, the exact diversification benefit here is hard to pin down, but structurally the mix leans toward growth with a real‑asset diversifier.
Sectors
- Financials 15%
- Consumer Discretionary 12%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Industrials 11%
- Health Care 10%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Energy 4%
- Real Estate 3%
- Technology 3%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 3%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector exposure is spread across many areas, with financials, consumer discretionary, telecom, industrials, and healthcare each in double digits. Technology is deliberately low at about 3%, reflecting the ex‑tech S&P 500 fund. This makes the portfolio quite different from typical US or global benchmarks, which are often heavily tilted toward tech. Tech‑light portfolios may miss some high‑growth phases when that sector leads, but they can also be less sensitive to rising interest rates or regulatory pressure on large tech platforms. The presence of staples, utilities, and healthcare adds some defensive ballast. The overall sector mix is therefore broad, but clearly under‑weights one of the main engines of recent market leadership.
Regions
- North America 74%
- Europe Developed 3%
- Japan 2%
- Australasia 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, around 74% of the equity exposure is in North America, with modest allocations to developed Europe, Japan, and Australasia. That’s more US‑centric than global equity benchmarks, where the US is large but not three‑quarters of the total. A strong home bias can work well when US markets outperform, as they largely have over the last decade, but it also ties results closely to one economy, currency, and regulatory regime. The small non‑US slice adds some global flavor but isn’t large enough to fully mirror world market composition. With only 1.3 years of data, it’s too early to judge how this concentration will play out over longer cycles.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 26%
- Mega-cap 22%
- Mid-cap 21%
- Small-cap 9%
- Micro-cap 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
By market capitalization, the portfolio covers the full spectrum: mega, large, mid, small, and even a bit of micro‑cap. Mega‑ and large‑caps together make up almost half, but mid‑ and small‑caps are also substantial thanks to the dedicated global small‑cap ETF. Larger companies tend to be more stable and widely followed, while smaller ones can be more volatile but offer higher growth potential and different sector mixes. This size spread is useful because different size segments lead at different times. In a short 1.3‑year sample, it’s hard to see those rotations clearly, but structurally the portfolio avoids being locked into only one part of the market‑cap spectrum.
True holdings
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AM Amazon.com Inc 3.67%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.82%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.48%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 2.06%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.00%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.57%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF
-
JP JPMorgan Chase & Co 1.49%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF
-
V Visa Inc. Class A 0.99%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF
-
LL Eli Lilly and Company 0.98%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF
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NF Netflix Inc 0.89%
Part of fund(s):- ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF
- Top 10 total 18.95%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Looking through to the top holdings of the ETFs, big names like Amazon, Meta, Alphabet (both share classes), Tesla, Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan, Visa, Eli Lilly, and Netflix appear. Combined, these top ten account for about 20% of the portfolio’s look‑through coverage, with some overlap where the same company appears in multiple funds. Because only ETF top‑10 positions are used, true overlap is likely higher, and 80% of holdings remain outside this lens. The presence of several large US growth and financial names means that, despite the “ex‑technology” label on one ETF, the portfolio still has exposure to tech‑adjacent and growth‑oriented businesses through other channels, creating some hidden concentration in big global leaders.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor data shows a mild tilt away from size (27% vs. a neutral 50%), meaning the portfolio behaves a bit more like a large‑cap basket than the overall market, despite its small‑cap sleeve. Factor exposure is like looking at the ingredients of performance — characteristics such as value or momentum that academic research links to returns. The standout here is low volatility at 70%, a clear tilt toward stocks that historically moved less than the market. That can reduce swings in calm and moderately stressed periods, though low‑volatility stocks can still drop sharply in severe sell‑offs. Yield is neutral at 58%, suggesting income levels are broadly market‑like. With missing data for other factors and just 1.3 years of history, these tilts should be viewed as provisional, not fixed traits.
Risk contribution
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ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF
Weight: 64.14% 70.6% -
iShares MSCI World Small-Cap ETF
Weight: 16.15% 19.9% -
abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF
Weight: 19.71% 9.5%
Risk contribution looks at how much each holding drives the portfolio’s ups and downs, which can be very different from its weight. The ProShares S&P 500 ex‑Tech ETF is 64% of the portfolio but contributes about 71% of total risk, slightly “louder” than its size. The small‑cap ETF is 16% by weight yet nearly 20% of risk, reflecting the bumpier ride of smaller companies. By contrast, the commodities ETF is 20% of assets but less than 10% of risk, thanks to lower volatility and diversification. This is a nice example of a holding that pulls its weight more for diversification than for raw risk, though this pattern may shift in different market regimes that we don’t see in a 1.3‑year window.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares the current mix with the best possible risk/return combinations using the same three ETFs. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 1.45 — Sharpe is a measure of return per unit of risk after accounting for a “risk‑free” rate, like checking how much extra speed you get for each unit of fuel. The optimal mix on this frontier has a Sharpe of 2.03, and even the minimum‑variance portfolio sits at 1.74. Being 3.85 percentage points below the frontier at the same risk level suggests the existing weights don’t fully exploit the diversification potential among these funds. That said, this optimization is built on a short, unusually strong 1.3‑year sample, so its guidance is informative but not definitive.
Dividends
- abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF 13.50%
- ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF 1.30%
- iShares MSCI World Small-Cap ETF 2.80%
- Weighted yield (per year) 3.95%
The blended dividend yield is about 3.95%, noticeably higher than many broad equity indices. This comes largely from the commodities ETF’s high stated yield (13.5%), alongside more typical yields of 1.3% for the S&P 500 ex‑Tech fund and 2.8% for small caps. Dividend yield is the annual income as a percentage of price, like rent from a property relative to its value. High reported yields on commodity funds can be more volatile and tied to futures strategies rather than stable company payouts, so they may not behave like classic stock dividends. Over longer periods, reinvested income can significantly amplify total returns, but with only a short history, it’s hard to judge how steady this income stream will be.
Ongoing product costs
- abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF 0.26%
- ProShares S&P 500® ex-Technology ETF 0.09%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.11%
Total ongoing costs are low, with a blended TER (Total Expense Ratio) around 0.11%. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds, expressed as a percentage of assets — similar to a small management toll taken each year. The largest holding, the S&P 500 ex‑Tech ETF, has a very low 0.09% TER, and even the commodities fund sits at a moderate 0.26%. These cost levels are impressively low and support better long‑term performance because less return is lost to fees each year. Over decades, even small fee differences can compound into noticeable amounts, so starting from such a low baseline is a real structural strength of this portfolio.
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