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Highly concentrated tech focused portfolio with strong historic growth and significant single stock risk

Report created on Jul 10, 2026

Risk profile Info

6/7
Aggressive
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

2/5
Low Diversity
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is extremely concentrated in a few individual stocks, with Microsoft and NVIDIA alone making up almost 70% of the total, and the top four names over 80%. The rest is a mix of broad index ETFs, factor funds, and a handful of smaller single-stock positions. Everything is in equities, with no bonds or cash-like holdings included in the breakdown. This concentration means the portfolio’s behavior is driven far more by a few big positions than by the many smaller ones. Structurally, it looks more like a focused stock bet that happens to include some diversified funds, rather than a broad fund-based core with a few satellites.

Growth Info

Historically, performance has been very strong: $1,000 grew to $5,172 over the period, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.18%. CAGR is like the average speed on a road trip, showing how much it grew per year on average. This handily beat both the US market (17.31%) and global market (14.72%). The flip side is a deep maximum drawdown of about -46%, meaning the portfolio almost halved from peak to trough before recovering. That path—big gains with big drops—fits an aggressive, concentrated growth profile and shows how much the outcome hinged on a few high-flying stocks.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo projection uses many random simulations based on historical behavior to estimate a range of possible 15‑year outcomes. Think of it as replaying history with shuffled returns to see many alternative futures, not a single forecast. The median result shows $1,000 growing to about $2,681, with a wide “likely” band from roughly $1,732 to $4,031, and a very broad possible range from $937 to $7,321. The average simulated annual return is 7.85%, with about a 71.5% chance of ending above the starting amount. This wide spread reflects how volatile portfolios like this can lead to very different long‑term experiences.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

All holdings are in one asset class: stocks. That means there is no built‑in buffer from bonds, cash, or alternative assets in this breakdown. Equities tend to offer higher growth potential over long periods but can swing sharply in the short to medium term. Many diversified benchmarks blend stocks with other assets to smooth out the ride. Here, every part of the portfolio is exposed to equity market risk, so downturns are likely to be felt more fully. The inclusion of broad index funds and factor ETFs helps diversify within equities, but it does not change the fact that the entire allocation is tied to stock market behavior.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    81%
  • Telecommunications
    7%
  • Industrials
    3%
  • Financials
    3%
  • Health Care
    2%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    1%
  • Energy
    1%
  • Basic Materials
    1%
  • Consumer Staples
    1%
  • Utilities
    1%

Sector-wise, the portfolio is dominated by technology at 81%, with only small slices in areas like telecommunications, industrials, financials, health care, and various other sectors. Common broad equity benchmarks usually have a more even spread across many sectors, so this is a clear tilt. Tech-heavy allocations can benefit strongly when innovation and growth stocks are in favor, which has helped recently. However, they also tend to be more sensitive during periods of rising interest rates or when investors rotate toward more defensive or value-oriented areas. This focus means sector-specific news and cycles in technology may drive overall portfolio ups and downs.

Regions Info

  • North America
    93%
  • Europe Developed
    3%
  • Asia Developed
    1%
  • Asia Emerging
    1%
  • Latin America
    1%
  • Japan
    1%
  • Europe Emerging
    1%

Geographically, about 93% of the portfolio is tied to North America, with only modest allocations to developed Europe, developed and emerging Asia, Latin America, Japan, and emerging Europe. Global market benchmarks often have a more balanced distribution between US and non-US stocks. A strong North American focus has worked very well in recent years, especially given the dominance of major US tech companies. The tradeoff is that economic, regulatory, or currency events affecting this region can have an outsized effect. The smaller international slices help, but most of the portfolio’s story will still be written by North American markets.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    81%
  • Large-cap
    12%
  • Mid-cap
    4%
  • Small-cap
    1%
  • Micro-cap
    1%

The market cap breakdown shows a very strong lean toward large companies: about 81% in mega‑caps, 12% in large‑caps, and only small allocations to mid, small, and micro‑caps. Mega‑caps are the giants of the market and often dominate broad indices, so this is broadly aligned with modern market-weighted benchmarks—just more extreme due to the few very large positions. Big companies can offer stability in terms of business strength and access to capital, but they may not move as explosively as very small firms. At the same time, when those mega‑caps are volatile growth names, as here, their sheer size means they still drive sharp swings.

True holdings Info

  • Microsoft Corporation
    45.22%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Direct holding 45.04%
  • NVIDIA Corporation
    24.78%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Direct holding 24.52%
  • Alphabet Inc Class A
    6.41%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Direct holding 6.29%
  • Shopify Inc
    4.18%
  • ServiceNow Inc
    2.47%
  • Plug Power Inc
    1.03%
  • Novo Nordisk A/S
    0.70%
  • Salesforce.com Inc
    0.58%
  • Zebra Technologies Corporation
    0.49%
  • SK Hynix Inc
    0.38%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P International Developed Quality ETF
    • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
    • WisdomTree Emerging Markets Multifactor Fund
  • Top 10 total 86.24%

The look‑through view confirms that direct stock positions, especially Microsoft and NVIDIA, dominate overall exposure even after accounting for what’s held inside ETFs. Microsoft sits around 45% of the portfolio in total, NVIDIA around 25%, and Alphabet just over 6%, with only a small extra boost from fund overlap. Some ETF holdings like SK Hynix appear only via funds, but their weights are tiny next to the top names. Overlap is measured using only ETF top‑10 holdings, so hidden concentration may be slightly understated. Overall, the data shows that any diversification coming from the ETFs is easily overshadowed by the large single‑stock stakes.

Factors Info

Value
Preference for undervalued stocks
Low
Data availability: 100%
Size
Exposure to smaller companies
Very low
Data availability: 100%
Momentum
Exposure to recently outperforming stocks
Low
Data availability: 98%
Quality
Preference for financially healthy companies
Very high
Data availability: 98%
Yield
Preference for dividend-paying stocks
Low
Data availability: 92%
Low Volatility
Preference for stable, lower-risk stocks
Low
Data availability: 100%

Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.

Factor exposure shows a Very high tilt to quality at 92%, with Very low size exposure at 7%. Factors are like underlying “personality traits” of investments—such as value or momentum—that academic research links to long‑term return patterns. A strong quality tilt means the portfolio is heavily weighted to companies with solid profitability, balance sheets, and earnings stability, which can support resilience compared with lower‑quality peers. The Very low size tilt means it is very underexposed to smaller companies overall, even though a few small‑ and micro‑cap names appear. In practice, this combination often behaves like a concentrated basket of large, financially robust growth leaders.

Risk contribution Info

  • NVIDIA Corporation
    Weight: 24.52%
    39.4%
  • Microsoft Corporation
    Weight: 45.04%
    38.2%
  • Shopify Inc
    Weight: 4.18%
    6.5%
  • Alphabet Inc Class A
    Weight: 6.29%
    4.8%
  • ServiceNow Inc
    Weight: 2.47%
    2.6%
  • Top 5 risk contribution 91.5%

Risk contribution shows how much each holding adds to overall volatility, which can differ from its portfolio weight. Here, the top three positions—NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Shopify—contribute about 84% of total portfolio risk. NVIDIA, at around 25% weight, drives roughly 39% of the risk, meaning its ups and downs are magnified relative to its size. Microsoft, despite the highest weight, adds a similar share of risk because it has been somewhat less volatile. Shopify’s risk share is also higher than its weight. This pattern highlights that position sizing plus volatility together create effective risk exposure, and a few holdings overwhelmingly set the tone.

Redundant positions Info

  • Invesco S&P MidCap Value with Momentum ETF
    Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
    High correlation

Correlation looks at how different holdings tend to move in relation to each other, on a scale from -1 to 1. A correlation near 1 means two assets move almost in lockstep; near 0 means they move independently; and near -1 means they move in opposite directions. In this portfolio, one clearly identified highly correlated pair is the Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF and the Invesco S&P MidCap Value with Momentum ETF. When such funds move almost identically, holding both offers less diversification benefit than the number of line items might suggest. In broader terms, heavy exposure to similar styles or regions often increases overall correlation.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

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The risk vs. return analysis uses an efficient frontier, which is the curve showing the best expected return for each risk level using only the current holdings in different weights. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.88, while the optimal mix of the same assets reaches a Sharpe of 1.46 with slightly higher return and noticeably lower risk. The minimum variance version drops risk further but with lower return and a Sharpe of 1.08. Being about 11.6 percentage points below the frontier at the current risk level means the existing weights aren’t using these holdings as efficiently as possible from a pure risk/return standpoint.

Dividends Info

  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
  • Salesforce.com Inc 1.10%
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets Multifactor Fund 2.00%
  • Pacer Global Cash Cows Dividend ETF 4.90%
  • Alphabet Inc Class A 0.20%
  • Cambria Global Value ETF 2.40%
  • Invesco S&P International Developed Quality ETF 2.00%
  • Microsoft Corporation 0.90%
  • NVIDIA Corporation 0.10%
  • Novo Nordisk A/S 3.80%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.20%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.60%
  • Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF Shares 2.30%
  • Invesco S&P MidCap Value with Momentum ETF 1.90%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 0.74%

The overall dividend yield of the portfolio is relatively low at 0.74%, despite a few higher‑yielding ETFs and individual stocks. Yield here measures the cash income paid out each year as a percentage of the portfolio’s value. Since the biggest positions—like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Alphabet—have modest or very low yields, they pull the total yield down even though some dividend‑focused ETFs are included. This setup suggests that most of the historical return has come from price gains rather than regular income. For an all‑equity, growth-tilted portfolio, that pattern is common: capital appreciation tends to dominate over cash dividends.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets Multifactor Fund 0.48%
  • Pacer Global Cash Cows Dividend ETF 0.60%
  • Cambria Global Value ETF 0.68%
  • Invesco S&P International Developed Quality ETF 0.29%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
  • Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF Shares 0.06%
  • Invesco S&P MidCap Value with Momentum ETF 0.39%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.03%

On costs, the weighted total expense ratio (TER) is very low at 0.03%, thanks to substantial exposure to ultra‑cheap index ETFs. Individual funds range from 0.03% for the broad US market ETF up to 0.68% for the Cambria global value fund, but the more expensive products have relatively small weights. TER is the annual fee charged by a fund, expressed as a percentage of assets—like a small ongoing membership fee. Keeping costs down is a meaningful positive, because even small percentage differences can compound into large dollar amounts over many years. Here, fees are a clear strength and support better long‑term net returns.

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