Momentum tilted US heavy equity portfolio with moderate diversification and strong recent growth

Report created on May 7, 2026

Risk profile Info

4/7
Balanced
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

3/5
Moderately Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is a 100% stock mix split across five ETFs, with one clearly dominant position. Half of the allocation sits in a US momentum fund, while the rest is spread across international equities, US industrials, smaller “future generation” companies, and a focused energy fund. Structurally, that means growth and trend-following styles drive a lot of behavior, supported by some diversification across regions and sectors. A concentrated core like this can simplify tracking and rebalancing, because most of the action comes from a few holdings. It also means changes in the main ETF’s performance can have an outsized effect on the overall portfolio, so its style and index rules matter a lot.

Growth Info

From late 2022 to May 2026, a hypothetical $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $2,272. That implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.16%, meaning the investment rose as if it grew roughly 26% per year on average. Over the same period, both the US market and broader global market returned around 22–23% annually, so the portfolio outpaced them by about 3–4 percentage points per year. Max drawdown, or the worst peak‑to‑trough fall, was about -18%, very similar to the US market. So historically, the portfolio took on stock‑like downside but delivered higher returns, though this period is short and unusually strong for momentum‑driven strategies.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo simulation projects how $1,000 might grow over 15 years using many randomized paths based on historical behavior. Think of it as running 1,000 alternate futures, then summarizing the outcomes. The median result, where half the simulations do better and half worse, ends near $2,725, or a bit over 8% annualized. The middle 50% of scenarios end between roughly $1,855 and $4,373, while the wider 5–95% band ranges from about flat to very strong growth. These projections are not predictions; they just show what could happen if past patterns repeated in different orders. Real markets can behave differently, especially when styles like momentum fall out of favor.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

All of the portfolio is in stocks, with no bonds, cash, or alternatives included. That creates clear, straightforward exposure to equity market risk and return, without the dampening effect that fixed income can provide. A 100% stock allocation usually means larger swings in account value over time, both up and down. The benefit is full participation in equity growth; the trade‑off is that drawdowns come entirely from stock market moves. The portfolio’s strong historical performance reflects that full‑equity stance combined with its specific tilts, but the same structure can feel very different in prolonged equity downturns or when volatility spikes.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    32%
  • Industrials
    20%
  • Energy
    13%
  • Health Care
    9%
  • Financials
    8%
  • Telecommunications
    6%
  • Consumer Staples
    4%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    3%
  • Basic Materials
    2%
  • Utilities
    1%
  • Real Estate
    1%

Sector exposure is tilted toward technology at 32%, followed by industrials at 20% and energy at 13%, with smaller slices across health care, financials, and other areas. Compared with broad global indices, technology and energy weights stand out, while some more defensive areas are smaller. Sector concentration matters because different parts of the economy respond differently to interest rates, inflation, and growth cycles. Tech‑heavy allocations can benefit when innovation and growth themes lead markets, but may be more sensitive when rates rise or investor preferences shift. The dedicated energy slice adds sensitivity to commodity cycles and policy shifts that might not show up as strongly in diversified market trackers.

Regions Info

  • North America
    81%
  • Europe Developed
    10%
  • Japan
    4%
  • Asia Developed
    2%
  • Australasia
    1%
  • Asia Emerging
    1%

Geographically, about 81% of the portfolio is in North America, with the rest spread across developed Europe, Japan, other developed Asia, and a small slice of emerging Asia. That’s a clear home‑country and US tilt compared with global indices, where US exposure is usually closer to 60%. A US‑heavy profile has worked well over the past decade, as US equities, and especially US growth and tech names, have outperformed many other regions. The flip side is that economic, regulatory, and currency risks are more tied to a single region. Non‑US holdings do add some diversification, but global developments outside North America are less represented in this mix.

Market capitalization Info

  • Large-cap
    39%
  • Mega-cap
    32%
  • Mid-cap
    16%
  • Micro-cap
    7%
  • Small-cap
    3%

The portfolio leans strongly toward mega‑cap and large‑cap stocks, which together make up about 71% of exposure. Mid‑caps, small‑caps, and micro‑caps fill in the rest, with micro‑caps at a noticeable 7%. Larger companies tend to be more established and liquid, often with more analyst coverage and slightly lower volatility than very small firms. The micro‑ and small‑cap slices can add growth potential and sometimes different behavior than the giants, but they can also be more volatile and sensitive to liquidity conditions. This mix results in a portfolio that mostly behaves like large global companies, with a bit of “spice” from smaller, more niche names.

True holdings Info

  • NVIDIA Corporation
    4.45%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Broadcom Inc
    3.95%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Exxon Mobil Corp
    3.87%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Micron Technology Inc
    3.56%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Alphabet Inc Class A
    2.71%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Alphabet Inc Class C
    2.15%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Johnson & Johnson
    2.14%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Caterpillar Inc
    2.06%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Fidelity® MSCI Industrials Index ETF
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Chevron Corp
    1.66%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund
  • Lam Research Corp
    1.61%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
  • Top 10 total 28.17%

Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, a handful of companies show up as meaningful underlying exposures. NVIDIA, Broadcom, Exxon Mobil, Micron, Alphabet, Johnson & Johnson, Caterpillar, Chevron, and Lam Research all appear via multiple funds. For instance, NVIDIA and Broadcom together account for over 8% of the portfolio through various ETFs. Overlap like this can create hidden concentration: if the same stock sits inside several funds, its performance influences the portfolio more than any single ETF weight might suggest. Coverage is based only on ETF top‑10 holdings, so actual overlap is likely higher, but even this partial view already highlights a strong tilt toward leading US technology and energy names.

Factors Info

Value
Preference for undervalued stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 90%
Size
Exposure to smaller companies
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Momentum
Exposure to recently outperforming stocks
High
Data availability: 90%
Quality
Preference for financially healthy companies
Neutral
Data availability: 90%
Yield
Preference for dividend-paying stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%
Low Volatility
Preference for stable, lower-risk stocks
Neutral
Data availability: 100%

Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.

Factor exposure shows one clear tilt: momentum at 67%, which is meaningfully above the neutral 50% level. Momentum exposure means owning stocks that have performed well recently, on the idea that trends often persist for a time. Historically, momentum has been rewarded but can be prone to sharp reversals when leadership in the market changes suddenly. The other factors—value, size, quality, yield, and low volatility—are all close to neutral, so the portfolio otherwise looks broadly market‑like along those dimensions. This pattern suggests that most of the portfolio’s distinct behavior, compared with a broad index, is likely to come from its momentum tilt rather than from value, income, or defensive characteristics.

Risk contribution Info

  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
    Weight: 50.00%
    53.7%
  • Schwab International Equity ETF
    Weight: 20.00%
    15.4%
  • Invesco NASDAQ Future Gen 200 ETF
    Weight: 10.00%
    13.8%
  • Fidelity® MSCI Industrials Index ETF
    Weight: 10.00%
    9.5%
  • Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund
    Weight: 10.00%
    7.7%

Risk contribution shows how much each ETF drives the portfolio’s ups and downs, which can differ from its simple weight. The main momentum fund is 50% of the assets but contributes about 54% of total risk, so its impact is slightly amplified. The NASDAQ Future Gen 200 ETF is only 10% of the portfolio yet adds nearly 14% of the risk, reflecting its higher volatility and focus on smaller, more dynamic companies. Overall, the top three holdings account for almost 83% of portfolio risk. That concentration means changes in just a few ETFs largely determine volatility, while the remaining two funds play more of a supporting, risk‑dampening role.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

The efficient frontier chart compares the current mix with the best possible combinations of these same holdings. The current portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 1.27, a measure of risk‑adjusted return that compares excess return to volatility. The “optimal” mix here, using only your existing ETFs, has a higher Sharpe of 1.58 at slightly higher return and slightly lower risk. Because the current portfolio sits about 2 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level, the data suggests that different weightings of the same funds could historically have delivered a better balance of return for the same volatility. The minimum‑variance portfolio shows what a lower‑risk combination might have looked like among these holdings.

Dividends Info

  • Fidelity® MSCI Industrials Index ETF 0.90%
  • Invesco NASDAQ Future Gen 200 ETF 2.80%
  • Schwab International Equity ETF 3.00%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
  • Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund 2.60%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.58%

The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 1.58%, which is on the lower side compared with many broad equity income strategies. Individual ETFs vary: the international equity and energy funds have higher yields around 2.6–3%, while the momentum and industrials funds sit below 1%. Dividends matter because they can provide a steadier component of total return, especially when price growth slows, but lower‑yielding portfolios can still perform strongly if capital gains are robust. In this case, recent returns have been driven more by price appreciation—particularly in growth and momentum names—than by income, so the yield acts as a small, secondary contributor.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Fidelity® MSCI Industrials Index ETF 0.08%
  • Invesco NASDAQ Future Gen 200 ETF 0.20%
  • Schwab International Equity ETF 0.06%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
  • Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund 0.09%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.11%

The portfolio’s total expense ratio (TER) is about 0.11%, which is impressively low for an all‑ETF, factor‑tilted equity mix. Individual fund fees range from 0.06% to 0.20%, all within a competitive, low‑cost band. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds, taken directly out of returns, similar to a small “maintenance cost” on the portfolio. Keeping costs low is helpful because fees compound in the same way returns do—small differences add up over long horizons. Here, the fee structure is a clear strength: it allows more of the portfolio’s gross performance, including its factor tilts, to flow through to net investor returns over time.

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