Cautious label loud growth engine under the hood and a random drawer of single stock toys
Report created on Mar 19, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
What type of investor this portfolio is suitable for
Cautious Investors
This setup suits someone who says “I’m cautious” but clearly enjoys a bit of market drama on the side. They’re long‑term oriented, probably thinking in decades, but not allergic to equity drawdowns as long as the ride isn’t totally unhinged. Comfort with broad index funds suggests a “set it and mostly forget it” personality, while the scattered small stock picks reveal occasional urges to tinker and prove they can still pick a winner. Risk tolerance is moderate: okay with temporary pain, not okay with portfolio‑ruining events. Goals likely center on retirement or big future spending, with stability valued slightly more than brag‑worthy upside.
Positions
-
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares
VBTIX - US9219375048 23.62% -
VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
VINIX - US9220401007 23.08% -
College Retirement Equities Fund - CREF Stock Account
QCSTPX 19.77% -
Teachers Insurance And Annuity Association Of America - Real Estate Account Variable Annuity
QREARX 8.82% -
Apple Inc
AAPL - US0378331005 7.24% -
Dodge & Cox Income Fund - Class X
DOXIX - US2562068898 4.22% -
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY - US78462F1030 4.01% -
VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
VIEIX - US9229088847 2.20% -
VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
VTSNX - US9219097840 1.84% -
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT - US5949181045 1.65% -
SPDR® Gold Shares
GLD - US78463V1070 1.12% -
GE Aerospace
GE - US3696043013 0.84% -
GE Vernova LLC
GEV - US36828A1016 0.45% -
Dow Inc
DOW - US2605571031 0.41% -
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc
FCX - US35671D8570 0.37% -
Netflix Inc
NFLX - US64110L1061 0.12% -
Nordic American Tankers Limited
NAT - BMG657731060 0.09% -
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc.
GEHC - US36266G1076 0.06% -
Exxon Mobil Corp
XOM - US30231G1022 0.04% -
EON Resources Inc.
EONR 0.03% -
reAlpha Tech Corp. Common Stock
AIRE - US75607T1051 0.02%
This portfolio looks like a sensible retirement account that blacked out and woke up holding a handful of random stocks. About two big index funds and a bond fund do almost all the work, while Apple and a few tiny “fun” positions buzz around like fruit flies. The broad labels say “cautious” and “diversified,” but the structure is basically: core US stocks, core bonds, a real estate side quest, then some one‑off picks that barely move the needle except maybe in stress levels. Takeaway: the bones are solid, but the odds and ends make it look more complicated than it is. Functionally, this is a simple 60/40‑ish portfolio wearing a cluttered costume.
Historical data is limited for this portfolio, which reduces the confidence in the calculated values.
Growth
A 12.3% CAGR is very respectable — that’s “you didn’t screw it up” territory. CAGR, by the way, is the average annual growth rate, like your speed over a long road trip. Max drawdown of -12.6% is actually pretty mild; you’ve basically had a market experience with some emotional padding. Versus the S&P 500 and global “market,” you likely trailed pure equity in the wild bull years but slept better when things got ugly. Takeaway: the return looks good for a cautious profile, but be clear this is largely thanks to a long bull market. Past data is yesterday’s weather: useful, but it doesn’t swear to repeat the trick.
Due to limited historical data, this may show extreme values that are not realistic.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation — basically thousands of “what if history went sideways” re‑rolls — is screaming one thing: outcomes are all over the map. A 5th percentile of -99.5% is pure doomsday math, while the median at -25.9% is a gentle reminder that “long term” can still hurt. Meanwhile the average 29% annualized across simulations is fantasy‑land: that’s what happens when a few wild upside runs skew the math. So, the model is more a chaos sampler than a promise. Takeaway: the future range is huge; planning as if you’ll land near the lower‑middle outcomes is saner than betting on those glittery top simulations.
Asset classes
- Stocks 42%
- Bonds 27%
- Other 1%
- Cash 1%
On paper: 42% stock, 27% bonds, 1% other, 1% cash. For a “cautious” label, that’s not exactly hiding from risk; it’s more like moderate with a PR team. Bonds and that real estate account do give some ballast, but equity still drives most of the long‑term result. The 1% “other” (hi, gold) is basically a fashion accessory, not a serious hedge. Takeaway: this is closer to a classic balanced mix than a defensive bunker. That can be fine, just don’t kid yourself that a quarter in bonds will save you from full‑on market tantrums. It’ll just let you lose money more politely.
Sectors
- Technology 19%
- Industrials 4%
- Financials 4%
- Telecommunications 3%
- Health Care 3%
- Consumer Discretionary 3%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Energy 1%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector‑wise, tech is clearly the favorite child at 19%, then a scattered mix of industrials, financials, communication, healthcare, and consumer stuff. Nothing is outrageously concentrated, but the tilt toward big tech, plus single‑name Apple and Microsoft, makes the portfolio emotionally tied to one style of winner. If the tech darlings even catch a cold, your statement will start sneezing. Takeaway: relying heavily on one growth‑heavy area is like building your house on only one thick pillar. It works until it doesn’t, and then everything leans the same way at once. More balance usually makes drawdowns less dramatic.
Regions
- North America 40%
- No data 28%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geography: 40% North America and a glorious 28% “unknown,” which is analyst‑speak for “we kind of gave up on pinning it down.” The rest of the world barely registers, with developed Europe at 1% and everyone else fighting for table scraps. So despite the nice‑sounding labels, this is basically a US‑centric portfolio with token international seasoning. Takeaway: home bias is common, but it’s still bias. When everything important is tied to one economy, one currency, and one policy regime, you’re making a single big macro bet whether you admit it or not. “Unknown” doesn’t save you from that.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 24%
- Large-cap 11%
- Mid-cap 6%
- Small-cap 1%
- No data 1%
Your market cap breakdown screams “big kid table only”: 24% mega, 11% big, 6% mid, and small caps are just a 1% novelty act. This is the classic comfort move — own the giants everyone talks about and politely ignore the scrappy riff‑raff. On the plus side, mega and large caps tend to be more stable and liquid. On the downside, you’re largely skipping the parts of the market that sometimes drive long‑term outperformance, especially after big cycles. Takeaway: this is a blue‑chip‑heavy personality, not an explorer. That’s fine, but don’t expect much small‑cap spice in either returns or diversification.
True holdings
-
Apple Inc 7.50%Part of fund(s):
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
Fannie Mae 3.50 05/01/2052 3.27%Part of fund(s):
- College Retirement Equities Fund - CREF Stock Account
- Dodge & Cox Income Fund - Class X
- Teachers Insurance And Annuity Association Of America - Real Estate Account Variable Annuity
- VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares
-
U.S. Treasury Note/Bond 4.125 08/15/2053 2.81%Part of fund(s):
- College Retirement Equities Fund - CREF Stock Account
- Dodge & Cox Income Fund - Class X
- Teachers Insurance And Annuity Association Of America - Real Estate Account Variable Annuity
- VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares
-
U.S. Treasury Note/Bond 4.625 11/15/2044 2.62%Part of fund(s):
- College Retirement Equities Fund - CREF Stock Account
- Dodge & Cox Income Fund - Class X
- Teachers Insurance And Annuity Association Of America - Real Estate Account Variable Annuity
- VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares
-
Microsoft Corporation 1.86%Part of fund(s):
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
-
Freddie Mac Pool 3.50 05/01/2052 1.83%Part of fund(s):
- College Retirement Equities Fund - CREF Stock Account
- Dodge & Cox Income Fund - Class X
- Teachers Insurance And Annuity Association Of America - Real Estate Account Variable Annuity
- VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares
-
U.S. Treasury Note/Bond 3.875 08/15/2034 1.62%Part of fund(s):
- College Retirement Equities Fund - CREF Stock Account
- Dodge & Cox Income Fund - Class X
- Teachers Insurance And Annuity Association Of America - Real Estate Account Variable Annuity
- VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares
-
U.S. Treasury Note/Bond 3.75 12/31/2030 1.44%Part of fund(s):
- College Retirement Equities Fund - CREF Stock Account
- Dodge & Cox Income Fund - Class X
- Teachers Insurance And Annuity Association Of America - Real Estate Account Variable Annuity
- VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares
-
Freddie Mac Pool 4.00 10/01/2052 1.33%Part of fund(s):
- College Retirement Equities Fund - CREF Stock Account
- Dodge & Cox Income Fund - Class X
- Teachers Insurance And Annuity Association Of America - Real Estate Account Variable Annuity
- VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares
-
Fannie Mae 4.50 02/01/2054 1.31%Part of fund(s):
- College Retirement Equities Fund - CREF Stock Account
- Dodge & Cox Income Fund - Class X
- Teachers Insurance And Annuity Association Of America - Real Estate Account Variable Annuity
- VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
- Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares
- Top 10 total 25.60%
The look‑through says what the surface already hinted: you secretly worship Apple at 7.5% total and bow lightly to Microsoft. Overlap is moderate but obvious: the big US names appear directly and again inside your index funds, so your “different” holdings often rhyme. Add in all the mortgage‑backed and Treasury stuff from the bond side, and you’ve got a lot of exposure to the same interest‑rate stories. Since coverage is only a slice of the true guts, overlap is probably even higher in reality. Takeaway: when buying broad funds plus single stocks, assume you’re doubling up on the obvious giants, not discovering hidden gems.
Factors
Factor profile: high quality, solid low volatility, big momentum, decent yield, a bit of value, and very little size tilt. Factors are the hidden ingredients — the “why” behind how your portfolio behaves. You’ve basically built a “nice companies that have already done well and don’t swing too hard” setup. That’s the investing equivalent of dating someone stable and already successful: fewer disasters, maybe fewer wild thrills. The problem: momentum plus low volatility can underwhelm when the market rotates into junky, high‑beta, or deep value names. Also, signal coverage is patchy, so this picture isn’t perfect. Still, the accidental factor structure is surprisingly coherent for something this messy.
Risk contribution
-
VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
Weight: 23.08% 35.0% -
College Retirement Equities Fund - CREF Stock Account
Weight: 19.77% 27.7% -
Apple Inc
Weight: 7.24% 15.0% -
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Weight: 4.01% 6.2% -
VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
Weight: 2.20% 3.9% - Top 5 risk contribution %
Risk contribution is where the calm façade cracks. Your top three positions — S&P 500 via Vanguard, CREF Stock, and Apple — are 50% of the portfolio but nearly 78% of total risk. That means when markets jerk around, it’s those three doing most of the emotional damage. Apple at 7.2% weight contributing 15% of the risk is really punching above its weight class. Think of risk contribution as “who’s shaking the boat”: a few seats are doing all the rocking. Takeaway: trimming or resizing high risk‑to‑weight offenders is a way to keep the same general mix without letting one or two names run the show.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationCollege Retirement Equities Fund - CREF Stock AccountSPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustVANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES
Your big equity pieces — CREF Stock, the Vanguard S&P 500 fund, and SPY — are basically clones wearing different badges. Highly correlated means they tend to move together, up or down, like three friends who always leave the party at the same time. That gives you redundancy, not diversification. In a crash, they won’t politely offset each other; they’ll all dive in formation. Takeaway: having several funds that track nearly the same thing adds complexity, not safety. You could keep the same core exposure with fewer overlapping vehicles and get equal market behavior with less noise and button‑clicking.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
The risk vs. return optimization chart basically says: with your current holdings, you could get a better deal. The efficient frontier is the curve of best possible trade‑offs using only what you already own. Your current mix sits below that sweet curve, meaning it’s like ordering the same ingredients but letting the worst cook in the kitchen plate it. The optimal portfolio point has a higher Sharpe ratio — better return per unit of pain — without needing new products. Takeaway: reweighting among existing positions, especially trimming correlated clones and outsized risk drivers, could move you closer to the frontier and make each unit of volatility work harder.
Dividends
- Apple Inc 0.40%
- Dow Inc 4.60%
- Dodge & Cox Income Fund - Class X 1.10%
- Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc 1.10%
- GE Aerospace 0.40%
- GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. 0.20%
- GE Vernova LLC 0.10%
- Microsoft Corporation 0.90%
- Nordic American Tankers Limited 5.50%
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 1.10%
- Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares 3.90%
- VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES 1.20%
- VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES 2.20%
- VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES 2.50%
- Exxon Mobil Corp 2.60%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.67%
Total yield at 1.67% is lukewarm — not embarrassing, but it’s certainly not a “live off the income” setup. The bond fund does most of the heavy lifting, with a respectable payout, while the equity side is more “growth first, pocket change later.” A few higher‑yield names look good on paper, but given their tiny weights, they’re basically decorative. Takeaway: this portfolio is built for total return, not a steady paycheck. That’s fine if the time horizon is long, but anyone dreaming of funding rent purely from these distributions will need either more yield tilt or a lot more capital.
Ongoing product costs
- Dodge & Cox Income Fund - Class X 0.33%
- SPDR® Gold Shares 0.40%
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 0.10%
- Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Institutional Shares 0.02%
- VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES 0.04%
- VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES 0.04%
- VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND INSTITUTIONAL SHARES 0.06%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Costs are hilariously low — a 0.04% total TER is “did you bribe Vanguard?” territory. The fee hog is Dodge & Cox at 0.33%, which still isn’t awful but definitely the diva of this lineup. SPY at 0.10% is fine, though kind of redundant given you already own super‑cheap institutional S&P exposure. Takeaway: fees are not your problem; structure is. You’ve done the hard part right by not lighting money on fire via expensive products. Now the game is cleaning up duplicates and refining risk, not hunting for another two basis points of savings. You already won that battle.
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