A high-stakes gamble masquerading as a portfolio with a one-track mind for stocks
Report created on Jul 19, 2025Risk profile
7/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 80.00% -
LU Intuitive Machines Inc.
LUNR - US46125A1007 20.00%
At first glance, your portfolio screams, "I love the stock market but only when it feels like betting on a single horse!" Dedicating a whopping 80% to a single ETF and the rest to an adventurous pick in common stock isn't diversification; it's a high-wire act without a safety net. While the Vanguard ETF is a broad market play, funneling 20% into Intuitive Machines Inc. is like betting on a dark horse in a race dominated by thoroughbreds. It's a bold move, but in the investment world, boldness should be accompanied by balance.
Growth
If we were to describe your portfolio's historic performance in one word, it would be "rollercoaster." With a CAGR that could make even the most stoic investor's heart race at 32.10%, it's clear you've had your moments in the sun. However, that maximum drawdown of -68.48% is a stark reminder that what goes up can come crashing down, hard and fast. It's like enjoying the view from the top of a rollercoaster, only to realize you're about to drop face-first.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation results for your portfolio should come with a health warning. With a 5th percentile outcome of -100% (yes, that's total annihilation), and only 299 out of 1,000 simulations ending up in positive territory, it's less of a forecast and more of a prophecy of doom. This isn't just a red flag; it's a whole parade of them. Betting the farm on this portfolio's future success seems about as wise as trying to predict rain in a desert.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Sticking purely to stocks with a 100% allocation is like going to a buffet and only eating bread. Sure, it's filling, but you're missing out on the nutrients (and the fun) that come from a more varied plate. The absence of bonds, real estate, or even a sliver of cash shows a disregard for risk management that's as bold as it is unwise. Diversification across asset classes isn't just investment advice; it's a lifeline that seems to have been completely ignored here.
Sectors
- Industrials 27%
- Technology 25%
- Financials 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 2%
- Real Estate 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
Your sector allocation feels like a tech enthusiast who reluctantly acknowledges other industries exist. With industrials and technology taking up over half of your portfolio, it's clear where your heart lies. However, this love affair with tech and industrials leaves you vulnerable to sector-specific downturns. It's like wearing a raincoat that only covers your left side; it might work in a light drizzle, but you're going to get soaked in a storm.
Regions
- North America 100%
The geographic allocation of this portfolio makes it clear you believe 'America First' isn't just a political slogan but an investment strategy. While the U.S. market is significant, ignoring the rest of the world's economies is like deciding to read only one book for the rest of your life. Sure, it might be a good book, but think of all the stories you're missing out on. Expanding your horizons could reduce risk and potentially uncover new opportunities.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 33%
- Small-cap 25%
- Large-cap 25%
- Mid-cap 16%
- Micro-cap 2%
Your market cap allocation seems to be playing it both safe and risky simultaneously, like wearing a helmet to bed. With a heavy tilt towards mega and small caps, you're betting big on both the titans of industry and the potential shooting stars. However, this strategy overlooks the steady, reliable growth that often comes from mid-cap companies. It's a high-octane approach that could either rocket you to success or send you spiraling.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The concept of Efficient Frontier seems to have been completely disregarded in the creation of this portfolio. Instead of aiming for an optimal mix of risk and return, it appears you've opted for a 'risk it for the biscuit' approach. While ambitious, this strategy overlooks the fundamental principle that not all risks are worth taking. The portfolio's current state is more akin to a gambler doubling down than an investor seeking sustainable growth.
Dividends
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.96%
At least on the dividend front, there's a glimmer of hope. A total yield of 0.96% isn't going to make anyone rich overnight, but it's a small cushion in what's otherwise a portfolio built on a bed of nails. While dividends can provide a steady stream of income, relying on them from such a concentrated source is akin to expecting a trickle from a faucet to fill a swimming pool. It's time to turn on some more taps.
Ongoing product costs
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.02%
On the bright side, your portfolio's costs are so low they're practically subterranean. With a total TER of 0.02%, you're navigating the cost aspect like a pro, avoiding the pitfall of high fees eating into your returns. It's one of the few areas where this portfolio doesn't seem to be playing fast and loose with the basics of investment wisdom. Kudos for that, but remember, even the most cost-efficient portfolio can't save itself from risky bets.
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