US stock index portfolio with strong large cap tilt and efficient risk adjusted performance
Report created on Apr 26, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 74.70% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 14.24% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 11.06%
This portfolio is made up of just three US equity index ETFs, with the bulk in a broad S&P 500 fund, a smaller slice in a total US market fund, and the rest in a NASDAQ 100 ETF. So it’s highly concentrated by product count, but each ETF itself holds hundreds of companies. The structure is essentially “US stocks only,” with a tilt toward the largest listed companies and the big growth names captured by the NASDAQ exposure. A low product count makes the portfolio easy to understand and track. It also means most of the behavior is driven by a single core holding, so changes in that ETF will largely define overall returns and volatility.
Growth
Over the period shown, a $1,000 investment grew to $2,191, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.3%. CAGR is like average speed on a road trip: it smooths the bumps into one yearly number. This return very slightly beat the US market benchmark and clearly outpaced the global market, while experiencing a max drawdown of about -25.7%, similar to broad US stocks. The drawdown lasted almost two years from peak to full recovery. That pattern is typical for an all-equity portfolio: strong long-term growth alongside sizable temporary declines. As always, past results describe what happened in this period but don’t guarantee anything going forward.
Projection
The forward projection uses a Monte Carlo simulation, which is basically a thousand “what if” replays of history with returns and volatility shuffled around using past data as a guide. The median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,735 over 15 years, while a wide 5–95% range runs from roughly $935 to $7,745. That spread shows how uncertain long-term results can be, even with the same underlying strategy. The average simulated annual return of around 8.1% is much lower than the recent historical CAGR, which is common when models incorporate the risk of bad stretches. These projections are illustrative scenarios, not forecasts, and real market paths can land outside any model.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio sits in one asset class: stocks. That makes the asset allocation very straightforward but also means there’s no built-in cushion from bonds or cash, which typically move differently during market stress. Compared to common “balanced” mixes that blend stocks and bonds, this portfolio is firmly on the growth side, even though the risk label shows “balanced.” Within stocks, the ETFs provide broad coverage of listed US companies, so it is diversified inside the single asset class. Still, when stock markets fall sharply, having 100% in equities usually leads to larger swings than multi-asset portfolios that hold different types of investments.
Sectors
- Technology 35%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Financials 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Health Care 9%
- Industrials 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, the portfolio leans heavily toward technology and related areas, with tech alone around a third of exposure and communications a further chunk. Financials, consumer, health care, and industrials are all present at meaningful but smaller weights, while areas like utilities, materials, real estate, and energy sit in the low single digits. This pattern is very similar to major US indices today, where large tech and platform companies dominate overall market value. Tech-tilted portfolios tend to benefit when innovation-driven growth and low interest rates are in favor, but they can experience sharper pullbacks when rates rise or when enthusiasm for growth stocks cools.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely focused on North America, with about 99% in that region and only a small sliver elsewhere. That’s very close to a pure US-equity strategy and more concentrated than global benchmarks, where the US is large but not essentially the whole thing. This alignment with US indices has been helpful over the last decade because US markets have outperformed many others. The trade-off is that economic, political, or regulatory shocks specific to the US would impact nearly the entire portfolio at once. There’s limited diversification benefit from other countries or currencies in this setup.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 46%
- Large-cap 35%
- Mid-cap 18%
- Small-cap 2%
By market capitalization, the portfolio is dominated by mega-cap and large-cap companies, which together account for over 80% of exposure, with a modest slice in mid-caps and only a tiny allocation to small caps. That means the portfolio mainly tracks the performance of the biggest, most established firms, whose share prices often move more in line with broad indices and can be more liquid and transparent. Smaller companies, which can be more volatile and idiosyncratic, play a very minor role in driving returns. This large-cap focus aligns with major US benchmarks and helps keep the portfolio’s behavior close to “headline” market moves.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 7.55%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 6.61%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.93%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.72%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.00%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.67%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.46%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.35%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 2.02%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.37%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 36.68%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, a handful of mega-cap names stand out: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, and Berkshire are all significant underlying exposures. Because these companies appear across multiple ETFs, they create overlap: for instance, Apple and Microsoft are held through all three funds. This stacking effect means the portfolio is more concentrated in these giants than any single ETF’s weight might suggest. Since only top-10 holdings are included, actual overlap is likely somewhat higher. As a result, the fortunes of a small group of large companies have an outsized impact on performance, both on the upside and during drawdowns.
Factors
Factor exposure across value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility is broadly neutral, meaning the portfolio behaves a lot like the overall market rather than making strong bets on any specific style. Factors are like underlying “personality traits” of stocks that research links to returns, such as cheapness (value) or recent winners (momentum). Here, the neutrality suggests the index funds are essentially tracking broad market weights without purposeful tilts toward, say, high-dividend or low-volatility names. That’s consistent with standard index investing: the portfolio is designed to capture general equity market behavior rather than targeting specialized factor strategies.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 74.70% 72.2% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 14.24% 14.2% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 11.06% 13.6%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which isn’t always the same as its size. Here, the S&P 500 ETF is roughly three-quarters of both the weight and the risk, so its influence is very proportionate. The total market ETF contributes almost exactly in line with its weight, while the NASDAQ 100, although just over 11% of assets, adds almost 14% of total risk. That higher risk/weight ratio reflects the NASDAQ’s more volatile, growth-oriented profile. Overall, nearly all portfolio risk is contained in these three positions, making it clear which levers matter most for volatility.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF SharesVanguard S&P 500 ETF
The S&P 500 ETF and the total US market ETF move almost identically, indicating extremely high correlation. Correlation measures how two investments move relative to each other, from -1 (opposite) to +1 (lockstep). When two funds track very similar universes, like the 500 largest US companies versus the entire US market, their daily moves tend to line up very closely. That means holding both doesn’t add much diversification at the fund level, even though each is broad inside. Instead, diversification mainly comes from the mix between those broad US funds and the more growth-focused NASDAQ ETF, plus the many underlying companies they jointly hold.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk–return chart shows the current portfolio sitting on or very close to the efficient frontier, with a Sharpe ratio around 0.68. The Sharpe ratio is a simple way to look at return per unit of risk, after accounting for a risk-free rate. The model suggests that by only reweighting the same three ETFs, an allocation could reach a higher Sharpe of about 0.88 with slightly lower risk and nearly the same expected return. However, the fact that the current mix lies essentially on the frontier means it’s already making effective use of these building blocks, delivering a risk–return balance that is considered efficient for this set of holdings.
Dividends
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.03%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 1.03%, with the S&P 500 and total market funds around 1.1% and the NASDAQ 100 lower at 0.5%. Dividend yield measures cash payouts as a percentage of price, so here most of the total return historically has come from price growth rather than income. That pattern is common for US large-cap growth-leaning portfolios, which often emphasize reinvested earnings and capital appreciation. While a modest yield can still contribute a steady stream of cash, this setup is more about participating in the earnings and valuation growth of companies than about harvesting high ongoing income from dividends.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
The portfolio’s costs are impressively low, with a total expense ratio (TER) around 0.04%. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds, expressed as a percentage of your investment. Low costs matter because they reduce the drag on returns year after year, and even small differences compound significantly over time. Here, the largest holdings charge just 0.03%, and even the NASDAQ 100 slice is only 0.15%, which is still modest by industry standards. This cost profile aligns well with best practices for long-term index investing and provides a solid foundation for capturing more of the underlying market returns.
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