Highly concentrated tech focused portfolio with standout past gains and strong sensitivity to a few stocks

Report created on Jun 4, 2026

Risk profile Info

6/7
Aggressive
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

2/5
Low Diversity
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This portfolio is heavily built around a handful of individual growth stocks, with Tesla and Micron alone making up 40% of the total. Around half the weight sits in single-company positions, while the rest is in broad and thematic ETFs covering US stocks, international stocks, semiconductors, bonds, and gold. This structure explains the aggressive risk score and low diversification rating: a few names drive most of the behavior, even though there are diversified funds in the mix. In practice, that means the experience will feel much closer to owning a tight group of tech and growth companies than to holding a broad market portfolio.

Growth Info

From 2016 to 2026, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $40,043, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44.84%. CAGR is like your long‑run average “speed” over the journey, smoothing out bumps along the way. That is dramatically higher than both the US market (15.50%) and global market (12.81%). The trade‑off was a very deep max drawdown of -58.18%, far steeper than the benchmarks. It also needed 63 strong days to generate 90% of returns, showing results were driven by a relatively small set of powerful upside moves.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo projection uses many random “what if” paths based on past data to show a range of possible futures. Here, 1,000 simulations over 15 years suggest a median outcome of about $2,699 from $1,000, with most paths falling between roughly $1,835 and $4,179. The average annualized return across simulations is 8.00%, much lower than the historical 44.84%. This gap highlights a key point: past performance, especially when it’s extremely strong, doesn’t automatically continue. The wide spread between the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios also reflects how an aggressive, stock‑heavy portfolio can produce very different outcomes depending on how markets evolve.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    96%
  • Other
    3%
  • Bonds
    1%

Asset‑class wise, the portfolio is dominated by stocks at 96%, with a small 3% slice in gold and just 1% in bonds. Stocks are generally the main driver of growth over long periods, but they also bring bigger swings in value. Bonds and other defensive assets usually act as stabilizers, like shock absorbers in a car. Here, their tiny role means almost all ups and downs will be equity-driven. Compared with a more balanced mix that might include larger bond allocations, this portfolio leans strongly toward capturing equity upside while accepting that downturns can be sharp and prolonged.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    49%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    22%
  • Telecommunications
    9%
  • Financials
    9%
  • Industrials
    2%
  • Health Care
    2%
  • Consumer Staples
    1%
  • Basic Materials
    1%
  • Energy
    1%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

Sector exposure is highly tilted toward technology at 49%, with consumer discretionary at 22% and telecommunications and financials making up most of the rest. This is very different from broad market benchmarks, where technology is large but not typically half the portfolio, and other sectors such as health care and industrials play a bigger role. Tech‑heavy and consumer‑discretionary‑heavy mixes can perform very strongly when innovation, growth, and risk appetite are rewarded, but they can be more sensitive when interest rates rise or when markets shift away from growth themes. The sector data lines up with the aggressive risk classification and past boom‑and‑bust pattern.

Regions Info

  • North America
    88%
  • Europe Developed
    3%
  • Asia Developed
    3%
  • Japan
    1%
  • Asia Emerging
    1%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

Geographically, about 88% of the portfolio sits in North America, with only small allocations to Europe and various parts of Asia. Global equity benchmarks usually spread more meaningfully across regions, with the US still large but not this dominant. Heavy home‑bias can be comforting because the companies and currency feel familiar, but it means economic, political, or regulatory shocks in one region have outsized impact. The small non‑US slice adds some diversification, yet overall behavior will be closely tied to how North American markets and the US dollar perform over time.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    77%
  • Large-cap
    13%
  • Mid-cap
    4%
  • No data
    3%
  • Small-cap
    1%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

By market cap, the portfolio leans strongly toward mega‑cap companies at 77%, with an additional 13% in large‑caps and only modest exposure to mid‑ and small‑caps. Mega‑caps are the very largest firms in the market, often more established and widely followed. This tilt is common in index‑heavy portfolios, but here it’s reinforced by big individual stakes in well‑known giants. Mega‑caps can offer some relative stability compared with smaller companies, yet when many of them are in the same broad style (such as high‑growth tech), their price moves can still be very volatile. The limited small‑cap exposure means less participation in the more domestically focused or early‑stage company segment.

True holdings Info

  • Micron Technology Inc
    21.30%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco QQQ Trust
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
    Direct holding 20.00%
  • Tesla Inc
    20.33%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco QQQ Trust
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Direct holding 20.00%
  • NVIDIA Corporation
    10.41%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco QQQ Trust
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Direct holding 7.00%
  • Alphabet Inc Class A
    7.51%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco QQQ Trust
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Direct holding 7.00%
  • Berkshire Hathaway Inc
    3.12%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Direct holding 3.00%
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co
    3.00%
  • Broadcom Inc
    1.48%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco QQQ Trust
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
    1.43%
    Part of fund(s):
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
  • Advanced Micro Devices Inc
    1.31%
    Part of fund(s):
    • Invesco QQQ Trust
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
  • Intel Corporation
    1.14%
    Part of fund(s):
    • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
  • Top 10 total 71.02%

This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.

The look‑through data shows significant overlap between individual holdings and ETFs. Micron’s total exposure is about 21.30%, Tesla’s 20.33%, and NVIDIA’s 10.41%, because these names also appear inside ETFs like QQQ and the semiconductor fund. Look‑through just means peeking inside the funds to see what companies you effectively own. Overlap matters because it can quietly increase concentration even when you feel diversified by fund count. Here, the repeated exposure to a small set of large growth and semiconductor companies creates hidden clustering, reinforcing the idea that a few names dominate the portfolio’s overall behavior despite the presence of broad index ETFs.

Factors Info

Value
Preference for undervalued stocks
Low
Data availability: 96%
Size
Exposure to smaller companies
Low
Data availability: 99%
Momentum
Exposure to recently outperforming stocks
High
Data availability: 96%
Quality
Preference for financially healthy companies
High
Data availability: 96%
Yield
Preference for dividend-paying stocks
Low
Data availability: 77%
Low Volatility
Preference for stable, lower-risk stocks
Low
Data availability: 100%

Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.

Factor exposure shows strong tilts toward momentum at 66% and quality at 64%, with low exposure to value, size, yield, and low volatility. Factors are like underlying “personality traits” of stocks that research links to returns. A high momentum tilt means the portfolio leans into stocks that have performed well recently, which can help in strong, trending markets but often hurts during sharp reversals. The quality tilt suggests exposure to companies with stronger balance sheets or profitability metrics, which can be a stabilizing influence within a growth‑oriented mix. Low tilts to value, yield, and low volatility indicate less emphasis on steady dividend payers or traditionally cheaper, more defensive stocks.

Risk contribution Info

  • Tesla Inc
    Weight: 20.00%
    30.5%
  • Micron Technology Inc
    Weight: 20.00%
    27.1%
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF
    Weight: 15.00%
    14.9%
  • NVIDIA Corporation
    Weight: 7.00%
    9.0%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
    Weight: 10.00%
    5.2%
  • Top 5 risk contribution 86.8%

Risk contribution numbers show how much each position drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can be very different from simple weights. Tesla is 20% of the portfolio but contributes about 30.49% of the risk, while Micron at 20% contributes 27.13%. Together with the semiconductor ETF, the top three positions account for 72.56% of total risk. This means the portfolio’s day‑to‑day experience is largely dictated by a few holdings, particularly Tesla and Micron. In contrast, a diversified US index ETF at 10% weight contributes only 5.22% of risk, highlighting how broader funds can dilute volatility compared with concentrated single‑stock bets.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

The efficient frontier analysis compares the current portfolio with the best possible mixes of the same holdings. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of return per unit of risk, is 1.17 for the current allocation, versus 1.58 for the optimal mix and 0.35 for the minimum‑risk mix. The report notes the portfolio sits 6.6 percentage points below the frontier at its current risk level, meaning there are alternative weightings of these same assets that historically would have delivered better risk‑adjusted returns. This doesn’t guarantee the future, but it shows the current configuration is more aggressive than it needs to be to get comparable expected returns from the existing building blocks.

Dividends Info

  • Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares 4.00%
  • Alphabet Inc Class A 0.20%
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co 2.00%
  • Invesco QQQ Trust 0.40%
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 0.43%

The overall dividend yield of the portfolio is low at 0.43%, reflecting its focus on growth and momentum stocks and funds. Yield is simply the annual cash payout as a percentage of the investment value, and it can be a meaningful contributor to total return in income‑oriented strategies. Here, most of the heavyweights either pay little or no dividend, while more income‑generating positions like the international index fund and the bond ETF are small. That means most of the expected return is tied to price appreciation rather than regular cash distributions. This structure aligns with an aggressive, growth‑oriented approach rather than a cash‑flow‑focused one.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • SPDR® Gold Shares 0.40%
  • Invesco QQQ Trust 0.20%
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.08%

The portfolio’s costs are impressively low, with a blended total expense ratio (TER) of about 0.08%. TER is the annual fee charged by funds, expressed as a percentage of assets, and it quietly chips away at returns over time. Most of the ETFs here, especially the broad Vanguard funds, sit at the very low end of industry ranges. The higher‑fee components, such as the gold and semiconductor ETFs, are relatively small by weight. Keeping costs this low is a strong positive, as it leaves more of any future returns in the portfolio rather than going to fund providers, and it supports the long‑term compounding potential of the overall strategy.

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