High quality growth tilted portfolio with concentrated stock risk and strong historical outperformance
Report created on Apr 9, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
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SG iShares Trust
SGOV - US46436E7186 20.47% -
WC Waste Connections Inc
WCN - CA94106B1013 12.99% -
AP Applovin Corp
APP - US03831W1080 10.56% -
KL KLA Corporation
KLAC - US4824801009 9.63% -
WR W. R. Berkley Corp
WRB - US0844231029 9.42% -
GO iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF
GOVZ - US46436E5776 9.41% -
RS Republic Services Inc
RSG - US7607591002 9.13% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF
AVUS - US0250728856 8.01% -
MP Monolithic Power Systems Inc
MPWR - US6098391054 4.96% -
MN Monday.Com Ltd
MNDY - IL0011762130 3.74% -
KN Kinsale Capital Group Inc
KNSL - US49714P1084 1.68%
The portfolio is built around roughly 70% in individual stocks and equity ETFs and 30% in a long-term Treasury bond ETF. Stock risk is driven mainly by a handful of mid to large US companies, plus two broad equity ETFs that help fill in the gaps. That 30% allocation to long-duration bonds is a big swing: it can cushion equity crashes when yields fall, but it also adds interest-rate sensitivity. Structurally this looks like a growth-leaning, stock-first setup with a stabilizing ballast rather than a classic “60/40.” The main takeaway: most long‑term returns and risk will be driven by the stock picks, with the bond sleeve acting as a volatility lever.
Growth
Since mid‑2021, $1,000 grew to about $2,249, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.4%. CAGR is the “average speed” of growth per year over the full period. That’s a huge edge over the US market at 11.11% and global market at 8.76%, with similar maximum drawdown to the benchmarks around -24%. So you’ve been paid very well for the risk you took. One caution: this is a short, unusually strong period for certain growth names, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Going forward, it’s reasonable to expect more normal returns than this recent run.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses historical returns and volatility to “re-roll” the dice 1,000 times and see many possible 15‑year futures. It’s like simulating lots of alternate timelines based on how similar portfolios behaved in the past. The median path turns $1,000 into about $2,537, with a wide but reasonable range from roughly $1,163 to $5,128 in most scenarios. The average simulated annual return is 6.88%, much lower than your recent 18%+ CAGR, which is a healthy dose of realism. Remember, this is all based on history and statistics, not a promise: real markets can be kinder or harsher than any model.
Asset classes
- Stocks 70%
- Bonds 30%
With 70% in stocks and 30% in bonds, the mix lines up nicely with a typical “growth investor” profile—heavy equity exposure but not all‑in. Bonds here are long‑dated Treasuries, which act differently from short-term bonds: they can be very sensitive to interest rate moves and can actually be quite volatile. That said, they usually zig when risk assets zag in big panics, which can be a strong diversifier. Compared with a pure equity portfolio, this structure should see somewhat smoother rides in deep recessions but larger swings when interest rates move sharply. Overall, it’s a thoughtful risk‑seeking, not reckless, asset split.
Sectors
- Industrials 23%
- Technology 20%
- Financials 12%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 1%
- Energy 1%
- Health Care 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector-wise, you lean heavily into industrials and technology, with meaningful exposure to financials and telecom, and very little in consumer, energy, or healthcare. Compared with global benchmarks, that’s a notable tilt: you’re more focused and less “all weather” than a broad market index. Tech-heavy and industrial/financial tilts tend to do well in growthy, risk‑on environments, but can wobble when rates spike or growth scares hit. The good news is you’re not overconcentrated in a single hyper‑narrow theme; the exposure is spread across several economically sensitive areas. Still, sector risk is clearly more cyclical than defensive here.
Regions
- North America 66%
- Europe Developed 4%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, this is mostly a North America story: about two‑thirds of the equity exposure is in that region, with only a small slice in developed Europe and very little elsewhere. That’s actually close to many US‑based investors’ home bias and roughly in line with major global indices leaning toward the US. The upside is familiarity, strong disclosure standards, and alignment with your likely spending currency. The downside is limited diversification across other economies and political systems. If North America has a rough decade while other regions shine, this portfolio may miss some of that global upside. Still, the core exposure is benchmark‑like, which is a solid foundation.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 49%
- Mega-cap 12%
- Mid-cap 7%
- Small-cap 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
By market cap, you skew toward larger companies: nearly half in large‑cap, plus some mega‑cap exposure, and only small allocations to mid and small caps. Large and mega‑caps tend to be more stable, more liquid, and better diversified businesses, which can temper volatility compared with a small‑cap‑heavy portfolio. The flip side is you’re getting less of the potential higher growth (and higher risk) that smaller companies sometimes offer. This tilt is broadly aligned with global equity benchmarks, so from a size perspective, the portfolio looks conventional and well‑balanced. Most of the “spice” here comes from stock selection and sectors, not size bets.
True holdings
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XT BlackRock Cash Funds Treasury SL Agency 1.51%
Part of fund(s):- iShares Trust
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AA Apple Inc 0.40%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF
- Top 10 total 64.02%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Looking through the ETFs, most of your exposure is still driven by your direct stock positions, which dominate the top holdings list. There’s almost no hidden overlap in the top 10s: each big stock is basically a single, distinct bet, not something quietly doubled up via ETFs. That’s good for transparency, but it does mean each pick really matters. Because only ETF top 10s are captured, smaller overlaps in the rest of the ETF holdings aren’t visible here, so actual diversification is a bit better than this table shows. The main insight: risk is very much about your named stock positions, not the ETFs.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor-wise, the standout tilt is high quality at 77%. “Quality” means companies with strong balance sheets, stable earnings, and good profitability—think of it as preferring sturdier houses in a storm‑prone area. That tilt can help in downturns and often leads to smoother earnings paths over time. The other factors—value, momentum, yield, and low volatility—are all around neutral, so you’re not making big bets there. Low size exposure means you’re skewed away from smaller companies, which fits the earlier market‑cap picture. Overall, this factor mix is a strength: it leans into a well‑researched, defensive‑friendly characteristic without getting overly complex or extreme.
Risk contribution
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Applovin Corp
Weight: 10.56% 37.6% -
KLA Corporation
Weight: 9.63% 17.3% -
Monolithic Power Systems Inc
Weight: 4.96% 10.6% -
Monday.Com Ltd
Weight: 3.74% 9.1% -
Waste Connections Inc
Weight: 12.99% 7.2% - Top 5 risk contribution 81.8%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s ups and downs, which can be very different from simple weight. Applovin is the big story: it’s about 10.6% of the portfolio but contributes a massive 37.6% of total risk—a risk/weight ratio of 3.56. KLA and Monolithic Power also punch above their weights. Together, the top three names drive about 65.5% of your total volatility. That means the portfolio’s behavior is heavily tied to just a few companies. If they do well, great; if they stumble, the whole portfolio feels it. Balancing position sizes could bring risk contributions more in line with your intended conviction.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart compares your current mix to the best possible risk/return combos using only your existing holdings. The Sharpe ratio (return per unit of risk above the risk‑free rate) is 0.91 for the current portfolio, versus 1.39 for the optimal mix. Your point sits about 5.5 percentage points below the frontier at the same risk level, meaning there’s room to rearrange weights and get more expected return for similar volatility. The nice part: this doesn’t require new assets, just smarter sizing of what you already hold. Even small shifts toward the optimal blend could improve overall efficiency while keeping your growth profile.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF 1.00%
- iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF 18.50%
- KLA Corporation 0.40%
- Kinsale Capital Group Inc 0.20%
- Monolithic Power Systems Inc 0.40%
- Republic Services Inc 0.80%
- iShares Trust 3.90%
- Waste Connections Inc 0.80%
- W. R. Berkley Corp 2.80%
- Weighted yield (per year) 3.12%
The overall dividend yield of about 3.12% is a nice additional return stream on top of price movements. Dividend yield is just the annual cash payouts as a percentage of your investment. Here, a big chunk comes from the Treasury STRIPS ETF’s high distribution rate and the iShares core holding’s moderate yield, with smaller contributions from select stocks. This isn’t an income‑maximizing setup, but it does provide a decent cash cushion that can help soften flat or mildly negative markets. For growth‑oriented investors, that’s a healthy balance: you’re not sacrificing too much growth potential to chase yield, but you’re not ignoring income either.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Equity ETF 0.15%
- iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF 0.10%
- iShares Trust 0.07%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Costs look impressively low. The ETFs carry expense ratios between 0.07% and 0.15%, and the aggregate portfolio TER is just 0.04%. The TER (Total Expense Ratio) is like a small annual “membership fee” you pay for fund management. Keeping this number low is one of the most reliable ways to improve long‑term outcomes, because every dollar not paid in fees keeps compounding for you instead. Relative to many active funds that charge 0.75% or more, you’re operating on a very cost‑efficient platform. That’s a real structural advantage that quietly compounds over years and decades.
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