Closet indexer with a tech crush pretending to be diversified but mostly just hugging the US
Report created on May 19, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 80.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 5.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 5.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 5.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 5.00%
This portfolio is basically one giant “own everything US” fund with a few shiny satellites taped on. Eighty percent in a total US market ETF does all the heavy lifting, while the tiny 5% slices in small-cap value, momentum, NASDAQ 100, and international are more decoration than design. It looks like an attempt at clever tilts that lost its nerve halfway through. Structurally, this is a closet indexer with a couple of hobby positions grafted on. The result: complexity without much impact. Most of what happens here is whatever happens to the broad US market, just with slightly more tech noise and a token nod to the rest of the planet.
Growth
Historically, this thing performed like a slightly sleepy version of the US market. A 15.68% CAGR looks great until you notice the US benchmark did 16.17% with basically the same max drawdown. CAGR is just your average annual growth rate over time — the “how fast did the car really go” number. You took almost identical pain on the downside (-25.05% vs -24.50%) but got paid slightly less for it. Outperforming the global market is less a victory and more a side effect of steering 95% of the money into the US during a very US-friendly window. Past data here is more “lucky era” than “proof of genius.”
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection basically says: welcome to the wide cone of “who knows.” A simulation like this sprays out thousands of alternate futures using historical-style volatility and returns, then tells you what’s common. Median ending value of $2,739 on $1,000 after 15 years sounds respectable, but the possible range of $973 to $7,414 is a reminder that markets don’t care how neat your spreadsheets look. A 72.5% chance of being positive is decent but far from a guarantee of hero status. This is a garden-variety equity ride: rewarding on average, occasionally nasty, and absolutely not a straight line.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class breakdown is delightfully boring: 100% stocks, zero bonds, zero anything else. This is a one-speed bike with no brakes — fine if you like wind in your face and don’t mind the occasional crash. Calling this “Balanced” in risk classification is generous; it’s balanced in the sense that both knees will hit the pavement at the same time in a downturn. Being all-equity means full exposure to market swings, so the portfolio lives or dies with global growth and investor mood. There’s no ballast here, just sails. In calm seas, that feels smart. In storms, it feels like a dare.
Sectors
- Technology 34%
- Financials 12%
- Industrials 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Health Care 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Real Estate 2%
- Utilities 2%
Sector-wise, this is tech-flavored “diversification.” Technology at 34% is a full-on addiction, not a hobby, with financials, industrials, and consumer stuff picking up the slack in much smaller doses. It vaguely resembles a broad index, but with an extra helping of “things that go up fast and hurt when they fall.” When over a third of your exposure hangs off one modern, highly cyclical area, correlations inside that group can spike at the worst possible time. It’s diversified enough to look sensible on a pie chart, but when tech sneezes, this portfolio will absolutely catch a cold.
Regions
- North America 95%
- Europe Developed 2%
- Asia Developed 1%
- Asia Emerging 1%
- Japan 1%
Geographically, this portfolio has basically never left North America. Ninety-five percent in that region is not a home bias; it’s a home lockdown. The 5% leftover dribbles into international markets so lightly it barely qualifies as sightseeing. For context, a huge chunk of global equity value sits outside North America, but this portfolio behaves as if everything meaningful is listed in the US and its neighbors. That concentration can be fun when one region dominates, but painful when leadership shifts. The so-called “international” fund is more of a souvenir keychain than a meaningful second pillar.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 40%
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 8%
- Micro-cap 4%
The market cap mix says “I like the index, but I want to feel special.” Mega and large caps at 70% keep this solidly in big-company land, roughly in line with a standard broad market. Then you’ve got a bit of mid-cap and a noticeable 12% combined in small and micro caps, juiced by that small-cap value ETF. It’s just enough to add noise and extra bumpiness, not enough to truly tilt behavior away from a giant-cap dominated portfolio. You’re basically driving a big, stable bus with a few rowdy kids in the back making the ride slightly more chaotic.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.25%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 4.95%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.74%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.19%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.03%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.83%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.41%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.54%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.42%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 0.98%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 30.34%
Look-through holdings reveal the real story: a tech mega-cap fan club assembled via multiple ETFs. NVIDIA at 6.25%, Apple at 4.95%, Microsoft at 3.74%, plus Amazon, Alphabet (both share classes), Broadcom, Meta, Tesla — it’s the usual suspects on repeat. Because these names appear in several funds, the concentration is sneakier than it looks on the surface. And remember, this is just from ETF top-10s, so the overlap is likely understated. This isn’t five independent building blocks; it’s several different wrappers all piping money into the same tiny group of superstar companies.
Factors
Factor exposure is accidentally very tidy — everything hovers around “neutral.” Factors are the hidden flavors of a portfolio: value vs growth, big vs small, steady vs jumpy, etc. Here, nothing stands out: value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility all sit in a boring, market-like band. It’s like ordering a sampler platter and somehow getting plain toast six different ways. The irony is that you added small-cap value and momentum ETFs but then buried them under an 80% total-market blanket, effectively canceling out any strong factor personality. If there’s a grand design, it’s very shy.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 80.00% 79.8% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 5.00% 6.0% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 5.00% 5.4% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 5.00% 5.0% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 5.00% 3.9%
Risk contribution confirms what the weights already screamed: this is the VTI show with minor backup dancers. The total US market ETF is 80% of the weight and about 80% of the risk — textbook “what you see is what shakes you.” The NASDAQ 100 punches a bit above its weight (6.01% risk from 5% weight), giving a slight extra jolt, while international actually under-contributes to risk at 3.85%, quietly dampening volatility. But overall, three positions drive over 91% of total risk. All those tickers might look like a carefully layered cake, but it’s basically one giant slab with sprinkles.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, this portfolio is basically leaving free money on the table. The Sharpe ratio — return per unit of risk, like “miles per gallon” for portfolios — sits at 0.7, while the optimal mix of the same holdings hits 1.07. That’s a big gap. You’re also sitting 2.64 percentage points below the efficient frontier at this risk level, which is finance-speak for “more pain than needed for the reward you’re getting.” Even the minimum variance version of these same funds beats you on risk-adjusted terms. The ingredients are fine; the recipe is what’s underperforming.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.06%
The income story here is… not really a story. A total yield of 1.06% is pocket change in equity terms. The international ETF tries to help with a 2.70% yield, but it’s basically whispering into a hurricane of low-yield US growth names and momentum-heavy holdings. Dividends can be a nice “get paid while you wait” feature; here they’re more “get a coffee a year while you ride volatility.” This setup clearly prioritizes capital appreciation over cash flow. If someone expected this portfolio to throw off meaningful income, the numbers are gently, consistently proving them wrong.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.05%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio isn’t trying to be clever — and that’s a compliment. A blended TER of 0.05% is impressively low; you’re basically paying couch-cushion money to rent the entire US market plus some bells and whistles. Even the “expensive” small-cap value ETF at 0.25% isn’t outrageous in context. Fees here are not the villain; they’re the one thing quietly doing their job while the rest of the portfolio experiments with redundant exposures. It’s almost suspiciously sensible: you somehow built a needlessly complex structure, but at least you didn’t overpay for it.
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