Concentrated US growth portfolio with strong technology tilt and standout historical performance but deep drawdowns
Report created on Apr 27, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 20.00% -
SO Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
SOXQ - US46138G6153 15.00% -
NV NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - US67066G1040 10.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 5.00%
This portfolio is a focused, all‑equity mix dominated by US large‑cap growth and tech exposure. Half sits in a broad US index ETF, with another 20% in a NASDAQ 100 ETF, 15% in a semiconductor ETF, 10% in single‑stock NVIDIA, and 5% in a small‑cap value ETF. So most of the weight leans into big, established growth companies, with one concentrated bet on a single chipmaker plus a small satellite of cheaper small companies. This kind of structure naturally leans toward strong growth potential and higher risk. The low diversification score reflects how much a few themes and positions drive overall behavior rather than a wide spread of different return drivers.
Growth
Over the period shown, $1,000 grew to about $2,976, which is exceptionally strong. The portfolio’s CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate, the “per‑year on average” growth pace) of 25.29% roughly doubles the US market benchmark and beats the global market by an even wider margin. That strong outperformance came with a max drawdown of about −34.8%, noticeably deeper than the benchmarks. A drawdown is the fall from a peak to the following low, and it shows how painful bad patches can feel. The long but ultimately successful recovery illustrates how concentrated growth and tech exposure can both hurt more in downturns and bounce harder in recoveries.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation uses the past behavior of this mix to create many random “what if” paths for the next 15 years. Think of it as shuffling the historical returns and volatility into 1,000 possible futures to see a range of outcomes rather than one forecast. The median outcome grows $1,000 to about $2,708, with a wide “likely” band from roughly $1,733 to $4,282. A very wide possible range signals meaningful uncertainty, which is normal for a growth‑oriented stock portfolio. The overall average simulated return of 8.14% is much lower than the recent historical 25% CAGR, reminding that unusually strong past runs rarely persist forever.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio sits in stocks, with no bonds or cash‑like assets in the mix. Equities are the main growth engine in most portfolios but also the biggest source of ups and downs. Without any stabilizing asset classes, the portfolio’s value is entirely tied to stock market swings, which lines up with its “growth” risk classification and 5/7 score. Compared with a more mixed stock‑bond setup, this structure typically sees larger drawdowns and faster rebounds. The clear advantage is simplicity and pure exposure to stock‑driven growth; the trade‑off is that there is no built‑in cushion from assets that might behave differently in rough equity markets.
Sectors
- Technology 53%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Financials 7%
- Health Care 6%
- Industrials 6%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector‑wise, technology dominates at 53%, with smaller but meaningful exposure to telecom, consumer, financials, healthcare, and industrials. This makes the portfolio very sensitive to how the tech and semiconductor themes evolve, including things like interest rates, innovation cycles, and demand for digital and AI‑related products. Portfolios with such a strong tech lean can show impressive growth when the sector leads, but they also tend to be more volatile when markets rotate into more defensive areas. The smaller weights in staples, utilities, and real estate provide only limited ballast. The sector pattern is coherent and intentional, but clearly growth‑tilted rather than broadly balanced.
Regions
- North America 98%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, about 98% of the portfolio is in North America, with only a small slice in developed Europe. This is even more US‑concentrated than many global benchmarks, which typically have meaningful allocations across Europe and Asia as well. A heavy home bias like this means the portfolio’s fortunes are closely linked to the US economy, US interest rates, and the US dollar. That concentration has been rewarding in recent years, as US large‑cap growth has been a global leader. The flip side is that any period where other regions outperform or the dollar weakens may not show up much here, simply because they are barely represented.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 47%
- Large-cap 32%
- Mid-cap 14%
- Small-cap 3%
- Micro-cap 2%
By market cap, almost half the portfolio is in mega‑caps and another third in large‑caps, with relatively small slices in mid, small, and micro‑caps. Market capitalization just means the total value of a company’s shares, so mega‑caps are the giants everyone knows. This tilt toward the very largest companies tends to reduce company‑specific risk compared with a purely small‑cap portfolio, but it also increases exposure to the fortunes of a small group of market leaders. The 5% small‑cap value ETF adds a different style and size bucket, which is helpful for balance, but it is too small to change the overall large‑growth identity of the portfolio in a big way.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 4.78%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.60%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.57%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.81%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.21%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.86%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.82%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.61%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.12%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 40.54%
Looking through the ETFs, NVIDIA stands out at about 17% total exposure once you combine the direct 10% allocation with its presence inside multiple funds. Microsoft, Apple, Broadcom, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Micron also show up as notable overlapping holdings. This kind of overlap means the portfolio is effectively more concentrated than the headline ETF count suggests. When the same company appears across several positions, any big move in that stock gets amplified because it hits multiple holdings at once. It’s also worth noting only ETF top‑10s are used here, so true overlap could be higher than these figures show.
Factors
Factor exposure shows a mild tilt away from value and low volatility, with more neutral readings for size, momentum, quality, and yield. Factors are like the underlying “personality traits” of stocks, such as being cheap (value), stable (low volatility), or fast‑moving (momentum). A low value score indicates a preference for more expensive, growth‑oriented names, which fits the tech‑heavy profile. The low volatility score being below neutral suggests the holdings are somewhat more jumpy than the broad market. Neutral readings in momentum and quality mean the portfolio broadly tracks market averages for those traits rather than strongly leaning into or away from them.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 35.5% -
Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 15.00% 22.2% -
NVIDIA Corporation
Weight: 10.00% 19.6% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 20.00% 19.1% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 5.00% 3.6%
Risk contribution reveals how much each holding drives the portfolio’s swings, which can be very different from simple weights. The S&P 500 ETF is half the portfolio by weight but only about 35% of total risk, reflecting its relatively diversified and stable nature. By contrast, the semiconductor ETF and NVIDIA together are 25% of the weight but nearly 42% of the risk. A risk/weight ratio near 2 for NVIDIA means each dollar there adds almost twice as much volatility as an average dollar in the portfolio. With the top three holdings generating over 77% of total risk, the overall risk profile is quite concentrated in a few growth‑tech bets.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationInvesco NASDAQ 100 ETFVanguard S&P 500 ETF
The correlation data highlight that the NASDAQ 100 ETF and the S&P 500 ETF move almost identically. Correlation measures how often two investments move together, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in lockstep). When two positions are highly correlated, owning both doesn’t add much diversification, even if they look different on the surface. In this portfolio, the strong link between the broad US market ETF and the NASDAQ‑focused ETF means market‑wide rallies and sell‑offs will tend to hit both similarly. The diversification benefits then mainly come from the more specialized semiconductor exposure and the small‑cap value slice rather than between the two core index funds.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart shows the current portfolio sitting about 3 percentage points below the best possible tradeoff line at its risk level. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above cash, is 0.77 for the current mix versus 1.21 for the “optimal” portfolio constructed from the same holdings. That suggests there are other weight combinations using only these five positions that would have delivered better risk‑adjusted returns historically. The minimum variance version has less risk and only a slightly lower Sharpe, showing another possible balance point. This doesn’t judge the current choice as wrong; it simply quantifies that the mix isn’t fully optimized on a pure math basis.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.76%
The overall dividend yield of about 0.76% is modest, which is typical for a growth‑tilted, tech‑heavy portfolio. Dividend yield is the yearly cash payout from holdings divided by their price, and it can be an important part of total return over time. Here, most of the expected return is coming from potential price appreciation rather than income. The small‑cap value ETF has a somewhat higher yield, but it is a small position, so it doesn’t move the dial much. This setup lines up with a focus on capital growth rather than regular cash flow, and it means the portfolio is less buffered by dividends if prices go sideways for a while.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.19%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.09%
The portfolio’s weighted TER (Total Expense Ratio, or ongoing fund fee) is roughly 0.09%, which is impressively low. TER is like an annual service charge taken directly out of the fund’s assets, so lower costs leave more return in your pocket over time. The core S&P 500 ETF at 0.03% is especially cheap, and even the more specialized ETFs are reasonably priced for their niches. At this cost level, fees are unlikely to be a major drag on long‑term performance. That’s a real strength of the portfolio: it takes concentrated, growth‑oriented risks but does so with a very efficient fee structure that supports better compounding.
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