This portfolio is heavily weighted towards equities, with a 60% allocation in a broad-market U.S. ETF and significant positions in international and small-cap value ETFs. The heavy tilt towards stocks, particularly with a 60% stake in an S&P 500 ETF, indicates a growth-focused strategy. The inclusion of international equity and small-cap value ETFs enhances diversification across geographies and market capitalizations, aligning with a broadly diversified classification.
Historically, this portfolio has demonstrated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.98%, with a maximum drawdown of -36.05%. The days contributing 90% of returns being limited to 20 indicates that performance peaks are driven by relatively few, high-impact trading days. Comparing this performance to benchmarks would be essential, but such high returns suggest the portfolio has been well-positioned to capitalize on market growth phases, albeit with significant volatility as evidenced by the drawdown.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to project future outcomes, suggest a wide range of potential portfolio values, from a 5th percentile outcome of 54.9% growth to a 67th percentile outcome of 838.8% growth. While this method provides a broad view of potential futures, it's crucial to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results, and simulations cannot account for unforeseen market changes.
The portfolio's exclusive focus on stocks, without any allocation to bonds, cash, or other asset classes, positions it for higher potential returns but also exposes it to greater market volatility. This approach is suitable for investors with a higher risk tolerance and a longer investment horizon, as it lacks the cushion against market downturns that bonds or other less volatile assets can provide.
The sectoral allocation shows a strong emphasis on technology, financial services, and consumer cyclicals, which are sectors often associated with growth but also with higher volatility. The underrepresentation of more stable sectors like utilities and real estate could make the portfolio more susceptible to market swings. Balancing growth-oriented sectors with more defensive ones could help mitigate risk without significantly compromising potential returns.
The geographic allocation with a 72% emphasis on North America and substantial allocations to developed markets in Europe and Japan indicates a conservative approach to international diversification. The lack of exposure to emerging markets and regions like Latin America and Africa/Middle East suggests an opportunity to further diversify and potentially enhance returns, as these markets can offer growth albeit with higher risk.
The market capitalization breakdown reveals a balanced approach, with a mix of mega, big, medium, small, and micro-cap stocks. This diversification across market caps can help reduce risk while still capturing growth opportunities in smaller companies. However, the 10% allocation to small and 5% to micro-cap stocks might be increased to further exploit the growth potential of these segments.
The high correlation between the Avantis® International Equity ETF and the Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF indicates overlapping investments that may not be contributing to portfolio diversification. Identifying and reducing such overlaps can enhance the portfolio's overall risk-adjusted performance by ensuring that each asset contributes to diversification.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The portfolio's current configuration suggests room for optimization, particularly by addressing the high correlation between certain assets. By reducing overlap and potentially reallocating towards underrepresented sectors or geographies, the portfolio could achieve a more efficient risk-return profile. Utilizing the Efficient Frontier concept could guide these adjustments, aiming to maximize returns for a given level of risk.
The dividend yields from the various ETFs contribute to the portfolio's total yield of 1.72%, providing a modest income stream in addition to potential capital gains. While the focus on growth minimizes the emphasis on dividends, this yield can still play a role in compounding returns over time, especially in more volatile market conditions.
The portfolio benefits from relatively low costs, with a Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.12%. The SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF's exceptionally low cost of 0.02% helps offset the slightly higher costs of the Avantis® ETFs. Keeping costs low is crucial for enhancing long-term returns, as even small differences in fees can compound significantly over time.
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