US heavy equity portfolio combining broad market and momentum with efficient risk adjusted positioning
Report created on Jun 7, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 70.00% -
ID Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF
IDMO - US46138E2220 10.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 10.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 10.00%
This portfolio is built as a simple four‑ETF mix that is 100% in stocks. Around 70% sits in a broad US market fund, while the remaining 30% is split evenly across US momentum, international momentum, and broad international stocks. So it’s mostly classic broad indexing with a noticeable, but not dominant, tilt toward momentum strategies and non‑US exposure. Structurally, that means one core ETF is doing most of the heavy lifting, with three more specialized funds adding extra flavor. This kind of “core plus satellites” structure is common because it combines simplicity with a few targeted tilts, while keeping the overall portfolio relatively easy to understand and monitor.
Growth
Over the 2016–2026 period, $1,000 grew to about $4,142, which is a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.3%. CAGR is like your average speed on a road trip, smoothing out all the bumps along the way. The portfolio slightly lagged the US market by about 0.5% per year but beat the global market by roughly 2.6% annually. Max drawdown, the worst peak‑to‑trough drop, was about −33%, very similar to both benchmarks during the 2020 crash. Needing only 35 strong days to make up 90% of returns underlines how a handful of big days drove long‑term results, a reminder that missing short bursts of strong performance can significantly change the journey.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses 1,000 simulations based on historical behavior to explore many possible future paths, rather than a single forecast. It suggests that $1,000 could most likely end near $2,902 after 15 years, with a “middle” range from roughly $1,837 to $4,244. Monte Carlo is like running thousands of alternate histories to see what could happen if markets repeat similar patterns with random twists. The average annualized return across simulations is about 8.1%, far lower than the backward‑looking 19% CAGR, which highlights how optimistic the past decade has been. As always, these scenarios are not promises — they just frame a range of plausible outcomes, not guaranteed ones.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in one asset class: stocks. There are no bonds, cash‑like funds, or alternatives in the mix. That makes the allocation very clear and easy to interpret, but it also means returns are fully tied to equity market ups and downs. Equities have historically offered higher long‑term growth than bonds, but with larger and more frequent swings along the way. Because everything here is in stocks, the main diversification happens within equities themselves, not across very different asset classes. This is consistent with a growth‑oriented setup, and it relies on the underlying funds’ broad holdings to spread risk rather than mixing in lower‑volatility assets.
Sectors
- Technology 33%
- Financials 15%
- Industrials 11%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Health Care 7%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 3%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 3%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector‑wise, technology is the largest slice at about 33%, followed by financials, industrials, telecom, and consumer areas, with smaller allocations to health care, energy, materials, utilities, and real estate. This pattern is broadly in line with major global equity benchmarks, where tech has grown to a big share of total market value. A tech‑heavy allocation can benefit when innovation and digital businesses drive market gains, but it also tends to be more sensitive to interest rate moves and changes in investor sentiment. The fact that other sectors still hold meaningful weight helps keep the portfolio from being a single‑theme bet, which supports diversification across different parts of the economy.
Regions
- North America 82%
- Europe Developed 9%
- Japan 4%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Asia Emerging 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Australasia 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is strongly tilted toward North America at about 82%, with the rest spread across developed Europe, Japan, and smaller positions in other regions. This lines up with many global market indices, where US companies make up a large share of total stock market value. The overweight to North America means company earnings and currency exposure are mostly tied to one major region, which has been a strength over the last decade. The presence of developed international and a bit of emerging exposure adds some diversification, though non‑US markets are clearly in a supporting role here rather than sharing equal billing with the US.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 46%
- Large-cap 36%
- Mid-cap 16%
- Small-cap 1%
By market capitalization, this is a large‑company‑dominated portfolio: about 46% in mega‑caps, 36% in large‑caps, 16% in mid‑caps, and only 1% in small‑caps. That pattern is very similar to the overall global equity market, where the biggest companies naturally take up most of the space. Larger companies tend to be more established, with deeper resources and more stable business models, although they can still be volatile. Having some mid‑cap exposure introduces a bit of extra growth and dynamism without turning the portfolio into a small‑cap‑heavy strategy. Overall, this size mix is well‑aligned with common benchmarks and supports broad, mainstream equity exposure.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.38%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 4.52%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.43%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.01%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.01%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.93%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.40%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.52%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.22%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.13%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 29.55%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, a meaningful chunk of the portfolio is concentrated in a handful of familiar large tech and growth names like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta. NVIDIA alone shows up at over 6% of the portfolio via the funds, while Apple and Microsoft add several more percentage points each. Because the same companies appear across multiple ETFs, there’s some “hidden” overlap that boosts effective exposure to these giants. The reported overlap may be understated since only top‑10 ETF holdings are captured, but even within that limited window, the dominance of a few mega‑caps stands out. This helps explain both the strong past performance and the sensitivity to their future prospects.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposures here are broadly neutral across value, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility, with only a mild lean away from smaller size. Factors are like underlying characteristics — such as cheapness, recent performance, or stability — that academic research has linked to long‑term returns. Neutral readings around 50% suggest the portfolio behaves a lot like the overall market for most factors, rather than strongly leaning into any one style. The slightly lower size score reflects the heavy tilt to mega‑ and large‑caps. This balanced factor profile means returns are likely to be driven more by broad market moves and sector trends than by explicit factor bets like deep value or high dividend strategies.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 70.00% 71.8% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 10.00% 10.8% -
Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF
Weight: 10.00% 8.7% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 10.00% 8.6%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. Here, the broad US ETF is 70% of the portfolio and contributes about 72% of total risk, so its influence is almost one‑for‑one with its size. The US momentum ETF at 10% weight adds around 11% of risk, slightly above its share, while the two international funds each contribute a bit less risk than their 10% weights. The top three positions together account for over 91% of total portfolio risk. This pattern is typical of a core‑heavy setup where one large position largely sets the tone for volatility.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis suggests this portfolio is already on or very near the frontier, meaning its mix of risk and return is efficient given these four ETFs. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of volatility above a risk‑free rate, is 0.79 for both the current and minimum‑variance portfolios, while the purely optimized mix reaches about 1.08 with a bit more risk. Being close to the efficient frontier is a positive sign: it indicates that, using only these existing holdings, the current weights are using risk reasonably well. Any potential improvement would likely come from subtle reweighting rather than needing a completely different set of funds.
Dividends
- Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF 3.60%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.40%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield sits around 1.4%, combining a relatively low yield from the US momentum and broad US funds with higher yields from the international and international momentum ETFs. Yield is simply the cash income paid out each year as a percentage of the portfolio’s value. Here, the income component is modest, so most of the expected return historically has come from price growth rather than dividends. This profile is common in growth‑oriented and momentum‑tilted portfolios, where companies often reinvest more of their profits instead of paying them out. Dividends still add a steady contribution, but they are clearly a secondary driver compared to capital appreciation.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF 0.25%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
Costs are a real strength of this setup. The total expense ratio (TER) across the four ETFs averages about 0.06% per year, which is extremely low by industry standards. TER is the annual fee charged by the funds as a percentage of your investment, and even small differences can compound over decades. Here, the core US index fund at 0.03% anchors costs, while the more specialized momentum ETFs still stay reasonably cheap. Low ongoing fees mean more of the portfolio’s gross return is kept rather than paid out in fund charges. This cost profile aligns very well with best practices for long‑term, index‑driven investing and supports efficient compounding over time.
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