Highly concentrated leveraged semiconductor exposure with extreme historic swings and strong growth stock focus
Report created on May 2, 2026Risk profile
7/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
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SO Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
SOXL - US25459W4583 83.01% -
VO Vanguard S&P 500 Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
VOOG - US9219325050 16.99%
This portfolio is extremely concentrated, with about 83% in a single leveraged semiconductor ETF and the remaining 17% in a broad US growth ETF. Both holdings are equity ETFs, so the entire portfolio is tied to stock market movements, with no bonds or cash-like buffers. A structure like this puts most of the behavior in the hands of one high-octane position, while the second holding plays a relatively small stabilizing role. When a single leveraged ETF dominates, portfolio ups and downs tend to mirror that product’s daily swings, which can be very large. This kind of composition means the portfolio reacts quickly and sharply to news affecting the targeted industry and broader growth stocks.
Growth
Historically, the portfolio turned $1,000 into about $81,710 over the decade, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 55.51%. CAGR is like average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. Compared with the US and global markets, which grew around 12–15% a year, the outperformance was dramatic. The trade-off was a maximum drawdown of almost -90%, meaning a huge peak-to-trough fall. It took about 40 months to regain that loss. Only 46 days produced 90% of returns, showing results were driven by a handful of powerful rallies. This history shows how leveraged, concentrated exposure can deliver spectacular gains but also severe, slow-to-recover declines.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection models 1,000 possible 15‑year paths based on past volatility and returns. Monte Carlo is like running many “what if” weather forecasts to see a range of possible futures, not a single prediction. The median outcome grows $1,000 to about $2,675, with a wide likely range from roughly $1,781 to $4,248 and an even wider possible band from $978 to $7,817. The average simulated annual return is 8.17%, with about a 73% chance of ending positive. These results already bake in large ups and downs. Still, all simulations are anchored in history; they cannot foresee structural changes in markets, leverage rules, or the semiconductor industry.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash, or alternative assets. Asset classes are broad buckets like equities, fixed income, and real estate that tend to behave differently through cycles. A 100% equity stance usually means higher volatility because there is nothing in the mix that typically softens market shocks. Compared with diversified benchmarks that blend in bonds and other assets, this portfolio leans fully into growth potential and market risk. This all-stock setup amplifies the impact of equity bull and bear markets, with very little cushion when sentiment turns negative.
Sectors
- Technology 8%
- Telecommunications 3%
- Financials 2%
- Consumer Discretionary 2%
- Health Care 1%
- Industrials 1%
Some holdings may not have full classification data available. Percentages may not add up to 100%.
Sector data shows exposure mainly in technology-related areas, along with smaller allocations to telecommunications, financials, consumer discretionary, health care, and industrials among the look‑through holdings. However, this understates the real concentration, because the dominant ETF is explicitly focused on semiconductors, a very narrow slice within technology. Sector allocation matters because different parts of the economy peak and trough at different times. A heavy tilt toward one high-growth, cyclical industry means performance will be particularly sensitive to that industry’s capital spending cycles, regulation, and innovation pace, rather than being spread across a wide economic base.
Regions
- North America 17%
Some holdings may not have full classification data available. Percentages may not add up to 100%.
The reported look‑through geography shows exposure only to North America, and in practice the main ETF targets US‑listed semiconductor names. Geography affects how tied a portfolio is to any single economy, currency, and regulatory regime. Compared with global benchmarks that spread across many regions, this portfolio is heavily anchored in one market. That can work very well when that market leads global returns, but it also means macro events like US interest rate changes, political shifts, or sector‑specific rules will tend to move most of the holdings at the same time, limiting regional diversification benefits.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 28%
- Mega-cap 22%
- Mid-cap 10%
- Small-cap 1%
Some holdings may not have full classification data available. Percentages may not add up to 100%.
By market capitalization, the portfolio tilts strongly to mega‑cap and large‑cap stocks, with some mid‑cap and a small slice of small‑cap exposure. Market cap is essentially company size, and larger firms often bring more established businesses and deeper resources, though not necessarily lower volatility in a hot industry like semiconductors. This blend means the portfolio is dominated by big, globally important companies while still having some exposure to smaller, potentially faster‑growing names. In practice, the large and mega‑cap semiconductor holdings can still be very sensitive to industry cycles, so size alone does not translate into stability here.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 5.23%
Part of fund(s):- Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.93%
Part of fund(s):- Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.66%
Part of fund(s):- Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 2.50%
Part of fund(s):- Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
-
MR Marvell Technology Group Ltd 2.06%
Part of fund(s):- Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
-
AM Applied Materials Inc 1.92%
Part of fund(s):- Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
-
IN Intel Corporation 1.81%
Part of fund(s):- Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.61%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MP Monolithic Power Systems Inc 1.56%
Part of fund(s):- Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
-
TE Teradyne Inc 1.44%
Part of fund(s):- Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
- Top 10 total 24.73%
Looking through the ETFs, the biggest underlying exposures include Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, AMD, Marvell, Applied Materials, Intel, Microsoft, Monolithic Power Systems, and Teradyne. Several of these names appear via multiple funds, which creates overlap and hidden concentration: performance of a single stock like Nvidia can echo through more than one holding. Because only top‑10 ETF positions are captured, overall overlap is likely understated. Concentration at the stock level means portfolio returns will be closely tied to a few influential companies’ earnings, product cycles, and valuations rather than being evenly spread across hundreds of smaller contributors.
Factors
Factor exposure shows very high size (strong tilt to larger, established companies), very low value, and very low low‑volatility. Factors are like underlying “personality traits” of a portfolio, such as favoring cheap stocks (value) or stable stocks (low volatility). A very low value score means holdings lean toward higher‑priced growth companies rather than bargain‑priced ones. Very low low‑volatility indicates a strong bias toward more volatile names, which fits with leveraged semiconductors. Together, these tilts suggest the portfolio is geared to do best in environments that reward aggressive, growth‑oriented, fast‑moving stocks, and may struggle more when markets favor defensive or value themes.
Risk contribution
-
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Weight: 83.01% 96.4% -
Vanguard S&P 500 Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 16.99% 3.6%
Risk contribution highlights how much each holding drives overall ups and downs. The leveraged semiconductor ETF is 83% of the weight but contributes about 96% of total portfolio risk. Risk contribution can diverge from weight when a holding is much more volatile than the rest, like a loud instrument dominating an orchestra. The US growth ETF, despite being nearly 17% of the portfolio, adds only around 4% of the risk, acting more as a passenger than a driver. This asymmetry means portfolio behavior is overwhelmingly dictated by that single leveraged position, and changes in its volatility directly reshape total portfolio risk.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑return chart shows the current portfolio sitting on or very near the efficient frontier, meaning that for its chosen holdings and overall risk level, the mix is already highly efficient. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above a risk‑free rate, is 0.92 for the current allocation. The optimal portfolio on the frontier has a slightly higher Sharpe of 0.95, with higher return and risk, while the minimum variance mix has lower risk and lower return. This suggests that, given these two ETFs, the current weighting is already extracting strong risk‑adjusted performance, albeit at an exceptionally high absolute volatility level.
Dividends
- Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares 0.10%
- Vanguard S&P 500 Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.17%
Dividend yield for the portfolio is very low at about 0.17% overall, with both ETFs contributing minimal income. Dividends are cash distributions from companies or funds that can provide a steadier return component, especially in calmer or declining markets. Here, the focus is clearly on price appreciation rather than income, which is typical for growth and leveraged strategies. This means total return will depend much more on capital gains driven by market moves, sector cycles, and company earnings, with very little in the way of regular cash flow to offset volatility or support a more stable year‑to‑year return profile.
Ongoing product costs
- Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares 0.76%
- Vanguard S&P 500 Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.10%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.65%
The portfolio’s total expense ratio (TER) is about 0.65%, dominated by the 0.76% cost of the leveraged semiconductor ETF, while the growth ETF is very cheap at 0.10%. TER is the annual fee charged by funds, taken directly from assets, and it quietly reduces returns over time. Relative to broad index ETFs, this overall cost is on the higher side, but that reflects the complexity and leverage of the main fund. For a highly specialized, leveraged strategy, these costs are not unusual. Over long periods, fee levels compound, so even modest differences can add up, especially when returns are more moderate than in the past decade.
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