This portfolio is heavily concentrated in technology, with significant positions in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, Invesco QQQ Trust, Apple Inc, and the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF. The allocation leans heavily towards ETFs and a single large-cap stock, highlighting a growth-focused strategy with a tech bias. However, this composition results in low diversification, both in terms of asset classes and sectors, which could increase volatility and risk.
With a historical Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.66% and a maximum drawdown of -31.30%, the portfolio has demonstrated strong growth potential but also significant volatility. The days that make up 90% of returns being limited to 36.0 indicates that the portfolio's performance is highly dependent on a few key periods, underscoring the importance of timing in investments and the risk associated with market fluctuations.
Using Monte Carlo simulations, the portfolio's future performance projections vary widely, with a 5th percentile outcome at 143.2% growth and a 50th percentile at 847.1%. This wide range suggests a high level of uncertainty and risk, albeit with the potential for substantial returns. It's important to note that these simulations are based on historical data and cannot guarantee future results.
The portfolio's allocation is entirely in stocks, with no diversification into other asset classes such as bonds or real estate. This allocation aligns with a growth-focused strategy but increases exposure to market volatility. Incorporating other asset classes could help mitigate risk and smooth out returns over time.
The sector allocation is heavily skewed towards technology, which comprises nearly half of the portfolio. While this sector has historically provided high returns, it's also prone to significant fluctuations. The underrepresentation of sectors like utilities, basic materials, and real estate further highlights the portfolio's aggressive growth orientation and its vulnerability to tech sector volatility.
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely invested in North America, with a minimal exposure to developed Europe and no presence in emerging markets or Asia. This geographic concentration may limit diversification benefits and expose the portfolio to region-specific risks, such as regulatory changes or economic downturns in North America.
The focus on mega and big-cap stocks suggests a preference for established companies with potentially more stable returns than smaller firms. However, this emphasis might limit exposure to high-growth opportunities in the mid and small-cap segments, which could diversify the portfolio and enhance returns.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The current asset allocation suggests that the portfolio may not be optimized on the Efficient Frontier, indicating that there could be an opportunity to achieve a better risk-return ratio through diversification. Adjusting the asset mix to include a broader range of sectors, asset classes, and geographies could enhance returns while managing risk more effectively.
The portfolio's dividend yield stands at 1.38%, with the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF contributing the most. While dividends provide a steady income stream, the overall yield is relatively low, reflecting the portfolio's growth orientation over income. Investors seeking higher income might consider increasing the allocation to higher-yielding assets.
The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) is impressively low at 0.07%, which is beneficial for long-term growth as lower costs directly translate to higher net returns. This cost efficiency is a strong aspect of the portfolio, minimizing the drag on performance due to fees.
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