Surprisingly thoughtful stock-only portfolio that still manages to trip over its own return potential
Report created on May 22, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 30.00% -
AV Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
AVDV - US0250728021 10.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00%
This portfolio is basically four funds in a trench coat pretending to be complex. Half is straight US large caps, another 30% is broad international, and the remaining 20% is bolted-on small-cap value spices. Structurally, it’s actually pretty coherent: a core of boring big stuff with some nerdy factor satellites. The weird part is how “growthy” it’s labeled for something that is 100% equities with a noticeable value bias and no safety nets. Everything here rides the stock market roller coaster together; there’s no buffer, no brakes, just different seats on the same ride. The end result is a portfolio that looks sophisticated on paper but behaves like a very well-organized stock bet.
Growth
Historically, this thing has done well in absolute terms and still manages to underachieve where it matters. Turning $1,000 into $2,506 with a 14.85% CAGR is solid, but the US market benchmark did about 1.6 percentage points better per year. That performance gap compounds into a very real “could-have-been” pile of money over time. Against the global market it wins, but that’s a pretty low bar given the US dominance. Max drawdown of almost -36% in early 2020 shows it falls hard when things break, basically matching market pain while slightly lagging the upside. Past performance is helpful, but like yesterday’s weather, it doesn’t owe anyone a repeat.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projections say this portfolio’s future is “probably fine” with a healthy side of chaos. A median outcome of $2,693 in 15 years on $1,000 sounds decent until you realize that the 5–95% range runs from “you barely broke even” at $977 to “lottery-ish” at $7,642. Monte Carlo is just a fancy way of rolling the dice 1,000 times using past volatility to guess the future, which of course doesn’t read the news. A 73.6% chance of a positive outcome is nice, but that also means more than one in four simulations end flat or worse. This portfolio is statistically optimistic, not guaranteed.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class breakdown is extremely subtle here because there isn’t one: it’s 100% stocks, full send, no helmet. There’s no bonds, no cash buffer, no alternatives — just pure equity exposure everywhere you look. That’s great if the goal is to experience every twist and turn of global markets as directly as possible. But in asset class terms, this is like showing up to a potluck with four different kinds of cake and calling it “balanced nutrition.” When volatility spikes, everything in here is on the front line. There’s no natural shock absorber to soften the hit, just varying flavors of the same risk.
Sectors
- Technology 25%
- Financials 17%
- Industrials 13%
- Consumer Discretionary 11%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Health Care 7%
- Energy 6%
- Basic Materials 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector-wise, this portfolio is trying to look diversified, but you can still see where the addiction lies. Technology leads at 25%, which is basically “We love growth stories, but we also like pretending we’re sensible.” Financials, industrials, and consumer sectors round it out in roughly index-like proportions. The real tell is that the top look-through holdings are almost all mega-cap tech and adjacent giants, so the sector numbers are politely understating the glamour bias. This is still very much a world where chipmakers, platforms, and digital empires call the shots. If those names take a break, this portfolio will feel it faster than the sector pie chart suggests.
Regions
- North America 63%
- Europe Developed 15%
- Japan 8%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Asia Emerging 4%
- Australasia 2%
- Africa/Middle East 2%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this is “US first, world as a side quest.” About 63% in North America sets the tone: a clear home bias dressed up with a 30% international fund and some spicy foreign small-cap value. The rest of the globe gets carved into little slices — Europe, Japan, developed Asia, and emerging markets all show up just enough to make the map look colorful. It’s not “America or bust,” but it definitely is “America and some stuff we found overseas.” The portfolio ends up heavily dependent on one region’s fate, with the rest of the world playing supporting roles rather than equal partners.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 37%
- Large-cap 26%
- Mid-cap 20%
- Small-cap 11%
- Micro-cap 5%
The market cap mix is actually one of the more sensible parts — annoyingly so, given how much else is slightly off. There’s a clear tilt toward mega and large caps (63% combined), which do most of the heavy lifting in boring, index-like fashion. Then there’s a meaningful chunk in mid, small, and even micro caps, thanks to the two Avantis funds. That creates a nice barbell between stability and chaos: big names for ballast, small/value names for drama. The catch is that when markets get rough, those smaller and micro names don’t just wobble, they cartwheel. So the portfolio claims growth, but it’s really blending “steady giants” with “occasionally unhinged gremlins.”
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.93%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 3.23%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.45%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.10%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.82%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.60%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.45%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 1.15%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.09%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.87%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 19.66%
The look-through holdings scream “We outsourced stock picking to the usual mega-cap suspects.” NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Broadcom, TSMC, Meta, and Tesla dominate the visible top layer. None of these are held directly, but they’re hiding inside the index wrappers, meaning the portfolio is indirectly obsessed with the same ten stocks as everyone else. Since only top 10 ETF holdings are counted, the true overlap is probably worse than it looks. This is hidden concentration 101: multiple funds all quietly piling into the same celebrity names. It may feel diversified, but the underlying story is: “If big tech sneezes, this portfolio catches the flu.”
Factors
Factor-wise, the portfolio has a noticeable crush on value with a 61% exposure, while everything else hovers suspiciously close to “meh/neutral.” Factors are basically the personality traits of your portfolio — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility explain how it behaves under stress. Here, there’s a mild tilt toward cheaper stocks, which actually clashes a bit with the mega-cap growth royalty in the top holdings. It’s like mixing thrift-store bargains with designer labels in the same closet. The neutral readings elsewhere say this portfolio isn’t making strong, deliberate bets on quality, momentum, or defensive behavior; it’s mostly just accidentally value-ish on the side.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 50.5% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 30.00% 27.7% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 12.7% -
Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 9.1%
Risk contribution reveals who’s really driving the drama, and surprise: it’s exactly what the weights say. The S&P 500 ETF is 50% of the portfolio and contributes about 50.5% of the risk — shockingly on-brand behavior. International broad equity at 30% weight adds around 27.7% of the risk, again pretty proportional. The only real show-off is the US small-cap value fund: 10% weight but almost 12.7% of the total risk. That little slice is punching above its size, like the loud person at a party. When turbulence hits, it won’t be the broad indexes misbehaving the most; it’ll be that small-cap value exposure shaking the table.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier chart, this portfolio is basically leaving free money on the table with bad proportions. The efficient frontier is the curve showing the best possible return for each level of risk using only the current ingredients. Your mix sits about 1.35 percentage points below that line at its risk level, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.61 versus 0.85 for the optimal combo. Translation: same ingredients, worse recipe. Just changing the weights between these existing funds could give better risk-adjusted returns without adding anything new. Right now, the portfolio is working harder than it needs to for less reward — a very on-brand form of inefficiency.
Dividends
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.80%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.72%
The total yield of 1.72% is the dividend equivalent of getting a polite nod instead of a handshake. The international small-cap value and international broad fund do most of the income work, while the S&P 500 and US small-cap value show up with relatively thinner payouts. This is not an income machine; it’s a growth-first setup with some loose change falling out of the cushions. Dividends can help smooth the ride a bit, but at this level they’re more like a side quest than the main story. Anyone expecting this portfolio to “pay them to wait” will quickly realize it’s mostly here to ride price swings, not mail checks.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.09%
Costs are annoyingly good. A total TER of 0.09% is basically as close to free as investing gets without a clerical error. The Vanguard funds are dirt cheap, and even the Avantis small-cap value funds, while pricier, don’t drag the average into embarrassing territory. This is one area where the portfolio doesn’t give much to roast: the investor clearly knows how to dodge unnecessary fee landmines. It’s like they did their homework on costs and then got lazy on optimization. The only real joke here is that the portfolio is underperforming the US market a bit while paying almost nothing for the privilege. Efficient on fees, less so on outcomes.
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