The portfolio is heavily weighted towards US equities, with a 40% allocation in the SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF and a 30% allocation in the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF. The international exposure through the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares adds a 20% allocation, providing a degree of global diversification. The remaining 10% is invested in the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF, offering some fixed income stability. This composition suggests a balanced approach, aiming for growth through equities while seeking income through dividends and maintaining a measure of risk mitigation through bonds.
Historically, the portfolio has achieved a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.36%, with a maximum drawdown of -31.20%. These figures highlight the portfolio's ability to generate strong returns, though it has experienced significant volatility, as indicated by the drawdown. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in just 29.0 days underscores the impact of short-term gains, emphasizing the importance of staying invested during market highs.
Using Monte Carlo simulations, which project future performance based on historical data, the portfolio shows a wide range of outcomes. The median projection suggests a potential 227.3% increase, with a 9.79% annualized return across all simulations. However, it's crucial to remember that these projections are speculative and depend on historical market behavior, which does not guarantee future results.
The asset class distribution is predominantly in stocks (89%), with a minor allocation in bonds (10%) and a negligible cash position (1%). This allocation underscores the portfolio's growth orientation but also highlights a relatively higher risk profile due to the limited cushion against market downturns provided by bonds and cash.
Sector-wise, the portfolio is well-diversified, with significant allocations in technology, financial services, healthcare, and industrials. This diversified sector exposure can help mitigate sector-specific risks, but the heavy weighting in technology could expose the portfolio to higher volatility, given the sector's rapid growth and occasional sharp corrections.
Geographically, the portfolio is heavily skewed towards North America (71%), with modest exposure to developed Europe (8%) and emerging Asian markets (3%). This concentration in North American assets may limit exposure to potential growth in emerging markets and diversification benefits that come with a broader international presence.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for big (38%) and mega-cap (28%) companies, with a smaller portion in medium (20%) and very little in small (3%) caps. This indicates a conservative tilt towards more established, less volatile companies but may also limit potential high-growth opportunities from smaller firms.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The portfolio's current allocation demonstrates a well-thought-out balance between risk and return, aligning closely with the Efficient Frontier. This suggests that, within the existing asset mix, the portfolio is optimized for the best possible risk-return ratio. However, continuous monitoring and adjustment are essential to maintain this optimization over time.
The dividend yields, especially from the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF, contribute positively to the portfolio's total return. A yield of 2.56% across the portfolio provides a steady income stream, which is particularly beneficial in volatile or declining markets.
With an average total expense ratio (TER) of 0.04%, the portfolio is cost-efficient, minimizing the drag on returns due to fees. This low-cost approach enhances long-term growth potential by keeping more of the investment's returns.
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