This portfolio is structured with a conservative risk profile in mind, comprising 30% in a Closed-End Funds ETF, another 30% in a Permanent Portfolio class, and 30% in a Floating Rate Treasury Fund. The remaining 10% is split evenly between two AQR funds, focusing on diversifying strategies and long-short equity. This composition reflects a cautious approach to investing, with a heavy emphasis on ETFs and fixed income, supplemented by strategic allocations in alternative strategies for diversification.
Historically, the portfolio has achieved a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.58%, with a maximum drawdown of -9.45%. Notably, a significant portion of returns came from a limited number of days, highlighting the impact of market volatility and timing on performance. This historical performance, while past performance is not indicative of future results, suggests a resilient strategy that has navigated market fluctuations effectively.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to project a range of possible future outcomes, indicate a median potential growth of 464.7% over the simulation period. All simulations resulted in positive returns, with an annualized return rate of 13.25%. While simulations provide valuable insight, it's crucial to remember they are based on past data and cannot predict future market conditions with certainty.
The asset allocation includes 43% in bonds, 24% in stocks, with the remainder in cash and other investments. This balance leans heavily towards fixed income, aligning with the portfolio's conservative risk profile. The presence of stocks and alternative investments introduces growth potential and diversification benefits, albeit in a controlled manner.
Sectoral allocation is well-spread across technology, energy, basic materials, and financial services, among others. This diversification across sectors can help mitigate risks associated with sector-specific downturns. However, the concentration in technology, while typical for modern portfolios, does suggest a reliance on this sector's performance.
Geographically, the portfolio is heavily weighted towards North America (57%), with minimal exposure to international markets. This concentration enhances exposure to the stability and growth potential of developed markets but may limit the portfolio's ability to capitalize on global diversification benefits.
Market capitalization exposure is balanced across medium, big, and mega-cap companies, with a smaller allocation in small and micro-caps. This distribution suggests a cautious approach, prioritizing stability and liquidity over the higher growth potential of smaller companies.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Efficient Frontier analysis suggests the portfolio could achieve a slightly higher expected return of 3.60% at the same risk level, indicating room for optimization. Adjusting asset allocation could enhance the risk-return profile, even though the current strategy already aligns well with the conservative risk tolerance.
The portfolio's dividend yield averages at 4.54%, with individual holdings ranging from 0.80% to 8.40%. This income component is a significant contributor to the portfolio's total return, providing a steady income stream while also offering potential for capital appreciation.
The Total Expense Ratio (TER) averages at 2.31%, with a notable variance across individual investments. While some costs are relatively low, others, particularly the actively managed funds, are higher. Reducing costs where possible can significantly enhance long-term returns due to the compounding effect of lower expense ratios.
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