Roast mode 🔥

A supposedly balanced portfolio that is actually an equity rocket ship wearing a sensible hat

Report created on Dec 16, 2025

Risk profile Info

4/7
Balanced
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

4/5
Broadly Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This “balanced” portfolio is 99% stocks and 1% “hold my beer” cash, split basically 80% US and 20% international. It’s the investing equivalent of saying you eat a balanced diet because you added one lettuce leaf to your triple cheeseburger. For a benchmark like a classic 60/40 stock-bond mix, this thing is way spicier. The good part: it’s clean, simple, and not cluttered with random shiny objects. To fix the labeling issue, the mix should match the risk label: either actually dial in some stabilizers, or accept that this is a growth-heavy setup and stop pretending it’s “balanced.”

Growth Info

Historically, this thing has ripped. A 14.07% CAGR means $10k turned into roughly $37–$40k over ten years, assuming smooth compounding. That’s stock-market-on-steroids territory. But the max drawdown of about -35% is the part that hurts: that’s $100k briefly looking like $65k and you “just checking” your account five times a day. Versus a more mixed stock–bond portfolio, this likely outperformed in up markets but felt way uglier in crashes. Past returns are basically yesterday’s weather: useful vibe check, not a guarantee. A reality check might be stress-testing how you’d handle a decade that looks more “meh” than magical.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo stats are screaming “mostly fine but don’t get cocky.” Monte Carlo is just a fancy name for running thousands of alternate timelines using past-like volatility and returns to see a range of outcomes. Median future value around +400% is great, but that 5th percentile at only +52% says the worst timelines are pretty underwhelming for all this risk. Also, simulated returns (13.29% annualized across runs) assume markets behave sort of like their past selves, which they absolutely don’t have to. Treat these projections like a weather app: useful for packing an umbrella, terrible for planning a beach wedding with zero backup.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    99%
  • Cash
    1%

Asset classes here are basically “stocks and vibes.” 99% in equities and 1% in cash means there is zero real ballast. Stocks are the growth engine; bonds and other lower-volatility stuff are the shock absorbers. You chose engine, no suspension. In calm markets, that’s thrilling. In a crash, you’re discovering new emotional lows alongside new portfolio lows. For someone who genuinely wants balanced risk, mixing in even a modest chunk of lower-volatility assets would smooth the ride. If the all-in equity thing is intentional, at least admit this is an aggressive growth profile and stop letting the risk label cos-play as “moderate.”

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    30%
  • Financials
    15%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    11%
  • Industrials
    10%
  • Telecommunications
    9%
  • Health Care
    9%
  • Consumer Staples
    5%
  • Energy
    3%
  • Basic Materials
    3%
  • Real Estate
    3%
  • Utilities
    2%

Sector-wise, this is basically “own the whole market” with a mild tech addiction. Tech at ~30% and financials, cyclicals, and industrials filling big chunks makes it broadly similar to major stock indexes, not some wild bet on a single theme. That’s actually pretty sane, which is slightly disappointing for a roasting, but here we are. Still, when tech sneezes, this portfolio will catch a cold, just like the rest of the market. There’s enough healthcare, defensive, and utilities in there to avoid being a pure meme-stock festival, but don’t kid yourself: this is still very much riding the global growth cycle, not ducking it.

Regions Info

  • North America
    81%
  • Europe Developed
    8%
  • Asia Emerging
    3%
  • Japan
    3%
  • Asia Developed
    3%
  • Australasia
    1%
  • Africa/Middle East
    1%

Geographically, it’s “America first and second and maybe the rest of the world if there’s room.” About 81% North America with only modest exposure to Europe and the rest of the globe means heavy home-country bias. That’s normal for US investors, but “normal” doesn’t equal “smart diversification.” If the US outperforms, you’re a genius. If the US has a lost decade, you’re stuck watching other regions party from the sidelines. The 20% international is at least not embarrassing — actually pretty reasonable by casual standards — but still well below global market-cap weights. Either lean into global or admit this is a USA fan club with guest passes.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    42%
  • Large-cap
    30%
  • Mid-cap
    19%
  • Small-cap
    6%
  • Micro-cap
    2%

Market cap mix is mostly mega and big caps with a polite sprinkle of mid, small, and micro — so yes, you bought the whole buffet, but loaded the plate with big names. Mega/big around 72% means you’re tied to how the giants behave, and lately a few mega companies have basically been the market. That’s great when they moon, awful when they all trip together. The small and micro caps at 8% total are just background noise. If the goal is diversification across company size, this is technically doing it, but in a “we added some hot sauce for the label, not the flavor” kind of way.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

On risk–return efficiency, this portfolio is basically a straight line toward max equity returns, not a carefully engineered sweet spot. The Efficient Frontier is just the imaginary curve where you get the best return for each level of risk — not “high returns with no risk” fairy tales. You’ve parked yourself on the high-risk, high-return side with no real attempt to mix in things that smooth the ride. The payoff is great historical growth; the tradeoff is emotional whiplash in drawdowns. If the volatility genuinely doesn’t bother you, that’s fine. If it does, the mix needs tuning, not just a comforting “balanced” label.

Dividends Info

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.42%

The yield at around 1.42% is… fine, if you’re not banking on income. This is a “growth first, dividends second” setup. The US piece at ~1.1% and international around 2.7% give a small drip of cash, but nothing you can live off unless your portfolio is already huge. Dividends can be nice for stability and psychology, like getting tiny participation trophies while you wait for long-term growth. But chasing yield isn’t the move here anyway; you built a total-market, total-return machine. If income is a goal, this layout needs either more capital, more income focus, or lower expectations about what this yield can actually fund.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.03%

Costs are the part you somehow nailed perfectly. A total expense ratio around 0.03% is basically paying couch-cushion money for a full global equity engine. Most active funds charge 10–20x that just to underperform the same benchmarks. Here, you clearly clicked the right ETFs instead of donating to some fund manager’s third vacation home. That said, low fees don’t magically fix the high-volatility profile; they just mean you’re not getting overcharged for the roller coaster. Keep this-level frugality permanent: any future additions should be held to the same “do you actually earn your fee?” standard.

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