Roast mode 🔥

A suspiciously sensible three fund portfolio trying very hard to be boring but still spicy

Report created on Feb 4, 2026

Risk profile Info

4/7
Balanced
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

5/5
Highly Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This setup is the classic “I read one Bogleheads post and called it a day” portfolio: 70% total US stocks, 20% international, 10% bonds. It’s simple, clean, and almost disappointingly reasonable. The balanced label is generous though; with nearly 90% in stocks, this behaves a lot closer to a growth portfolio than some chill middle‑of‑the‑road mix. Think “wearing a seatbelt but driving 80 mph.” A bit more actual ballast on the bond or cash side would make volatility less punchy. If the goal is truly balanced, sliding more into safer stuff over time would make the label match reality a little better.

Growth Info

A CAGR of 13.82% is “wow” territory, but that screams “you lived through a great decade,” not “you nailed eternal truth.” CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is just your average yearly speed on a mostly downhill road. The -32.54% max drawdown is the part people forget until they’re doomscrolling at 2 a.m. in a crash. A reasonable benchmark like a global 60/40 would likely have been smoother with slightly lower returns. Past data is yesterday’s weather: helpful for packing, not a prophecy. The real task is asking: would that -30%+ drop have made you panic sell, or could you ride it out?

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo results are basically saying, “You’ll probably be fine, unless markets decide to be a full gremlin.” Monte Carlo simulations run thousands of alternate history timelines using past volatility and return patterns to see possible futures. Median outcome of about +245% and annualized 10.15% is rosy, but the 5th percentile at just +33.9% is your “bad luck but not catastrophic” scenario. Also, 984 out of 1,000 positive sounds comforting, but that ignores inflation, life needs, and human panic. Treat these simulations as weather models, not fate. Periodically revisiting risk level, horizon, and withdrawal needs would keep this from drifting into wishful thinking.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    89%
  • Bonds
    10%
  • Cash
    1%

Asset class mix: 89% stocks, 10% bonds, 1% cash. Calling that “balanced” is cute. This is an equity-heavy engine with a small bond airbag. Bonds exist here mostly to make the risk score look respectable. In a sharp crash, this is going to behave much more like a stock portfolio than a true stock‑bond partnership. For someone with decades ahead, fine; for anyone needing money in the next 5–10 years, it’s a bit “hope is a strategy.” Gradually increasing bonds with age or around big planned expenses would align this more with adult-level risk management rather than eternal 30‑year‑old optimism.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    26%
  • Financials
    14%
  • Industrials
    9%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    9%
  • Health Care
    9%
  • Telecommunications
    8%
  • Consumer Staples
    4%
  • Energy
    3%
  • Basic Materials
    3%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Real Estate
    2%

Sector spread is basically “market cap weighted reality,” but that doesn’t mean it’s harmless. Tech at 26% is a clear addiction, even if it’s just mirroring broad indexes. Financials, industrials, healthcare, and communication services bring some balance, but let’s not pretend this wouldn’t feel a tech-led faceplant if growth stocks have a tantrum. Sector weight is like your diet: you can pretend you’re diversified, but if a quarter of your calories are sugar, you know where the real risk sits. If volatility in tech makes you queasy, tilting very slightly toward more defensive exposures could smooth the emotional rollercoaster.

Regions Info

  • North America
    71%
  • Europe Developed
    8%
  • Asia Emerging
    3%
  • Japan
    3%
  • Asia Developed
    3%
  • Australasia
    1%
  • Africa/Middle East
    1%

Geographically this screams “America or bust”: 71% North America, with everyone else sharing the scraps. To be fair, that’s roughly what global market cap looks like plus a mild home-country bias, so it’s not outrageous. But it does mean you’re betting heavily that US dominance keeps rolling uninterrupted. International exposure at 20% helps, and honestly it’s more globally aware than many US-heavy portfolios, but there’s still a “USA main character syndrome” vibe. Keeping that international slice steady or even nudging it up over time would protect a bit against the “what if the rest of the world has its decade” scenario.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    38%
  • Large-cap
    28%
  • Mid-cap
    17%
  • Small-cap
    5%
  • Micro-cap
    2%

Market cap mix is very textbook: 38% mega, 28% big, 17% medium, 5% small, 2% micro. Translation: you’re mostly riding the giants while letting the ankle-biter stocks add a bit of chaos and growth juice. No wild small-cap gambling here, which is probably saving some sleep. The flip side is that you are heavily tied to the fate of the big names steering the index bus. If those mega caps wobble, everything shakes. If someone craves more potential upside and can handle more gut punches, a mild tilt toward smaller companies could add spice, but this current mix is refreshingly non-degenerate.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

From a risk–return efficiency angle, this portfolio is surprisingly competent but pretending to be safer than it is. The Efficient Frontier is basically the menu of best possible trade-offs between risk and return for a given mix. You’re sitting on a high-equity spot that likely gives good long-term returns but with more stomach-churning swings than the “balanced” label suggests. With only 10% bonds, you’re not exactly milking the classic benefit of mixing safe and risky assets to smooth the ride. A slightly higher bond slice could move you closer to a sweet spot where every unit of risk actually pulls its weight.

Dividends Info

  • Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares 3.90%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 3.00%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.76%

Total yield at 1.76% is not exactly “live off the income and sip margaritas” territory. Bond yield at 3.9% helps, international stocks at 3.0% add some decent income, while US stocks at 1.1% are basically saying, “We pay you in vibes and growth.” This setup leans clearly toward total return, not income. That’s fine for growth-focused long-term saving, but anyone imagining paying bills off dividends alone here is in for a rude math lesson. If income is a real goal, gradually shifting more toward income-heavy assets or accepting a lower growth path would align expectations with reality instead of fantasy spreadsheets.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.03%

Costs at 0.03% total expense ratio are absurdly low. This is “did you mug a hedge fund?” pricing. You’re basically renting the global markets for couch-cushion money. There isn’t much to roast here other than: you’ve removed one of the easiest ways to sabotage performance, which is overpaying for shiny products. Just don’t get bored and start adding random expensive funds “for fun.” Cost creep is sneaky. Keeping things this lean and resisting the urge to “optimize” with high-fee toys is probably one of the most quietly powerful choices in the entire setup.

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