This portfolio predominantly invests in North American equities, with a significant 65% allocation to the Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF, reflecting a strong bias towards US equities. The remaining allocations are divided among Canadian equities (15%), NASDAQ 100 (10%), and developed markets excluding North America (10%). This composition suggests a moderate diversification strategy, primarily focused on high-market-cap companies in developed markets. The portfolio's heavy tilt towards technology and financial services, comprising 45% of sector allocation, indicates a growth-oriented approach but also introduces sector-specific risks.
With a historical Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.06% and a maximum drawdown of -21.48%, the portfolio has demonstrated strong performance with relatively high volatility. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in just 21 days highlight the portfolio's reliance on significant market movements for gains. This performance metric underscores the importance of staying invested over the long term, as missing these key days could drastically impact overall returns.
Monte Carlo simulations project a wide range of outcomes, with a median increase of 464.8% in portfolio value, suggesting strong growth potential. However, the significant spread between the 5th and 67th percentiles (112.4% to 635.8%) underscores the inherent uncertainty in these projections. While the simulations are based on historical data, they are not foolproof predictors of future performance, emphasizing the need for ongoing risk management and portfolio adjustments.
The asset class distribution, with 74% in US equity and 15% in equity (presumably Canadian), indicates a heavy tilt towards equities, aligning with the portfolio's balanced growth profile. The absence of fixed income or alternative investments limits diversification across asset classes, potentially increasing volatility. Incorporating a broader range of asset classes could enhance the portfolio's resilience to market fluctuations.
The technology sector's dominant 29% allocation aligns with the portfolio's growth orientation but may expose it to higher volatility, especially during market corrections or shifts in investor sentiment. Financial services and consumer cyclicals further tilt the portfolio towards cyclical sectors, which can offer high returns during economic expansions but pose risks during downturns. A more balanced sector allocation could mitigate these risks.
With 90% of assets allocated to North America, the portfolio's geographic exposure is heavily skewed, potentially missing out on growth opportunities in emerging markets or other developed regions. This concentration increases vulnerability to regional economic and political events. Broadening geographic exposure could improve diversification and reduce region-specific risks.
The portfolio's focus on mega (46%) and big (34%) cap stocks supports its aim for balanced growth, leveraging the stability and potential upside of large, established companies. However, the minimal exposure to small and micro-cap stocks limits opportunities for outsized gains from smaller, high-growth companies. A slight increase in allocation to these market caps could introduce more growth potential, albeit with higher risk.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The current allocation suggests the portfolio is positioned near the Efficient Frontier, indicating an optimal risk-return balance based on historical data. However, continuous review and adjustment are essential to maintain this balance, especially as market conditions and the investor's financial goals evolve. Rebalancing to realign with the Efficient Frontier can help in achieving desired outcomes while managing risk.
The overall dividend yield of 0.94% contributes to the portfolio's total return, albeit modestly. The varying yields across ETFs, from 0.30% to 1.80%, reflect a strategic focus on growth over income. For investors seeking higher income, reallocating towards assets with higher dividend yields could provide a steady income stream in addition to capital appreciation.
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