Riding the semiconductor rocket with a plastic helmet and almost no backup plan
Report created on May 15, 2026Risk profile
6/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
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SC Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
SCHG - US8085243009 46.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 45.50% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 8.50%
This portfolio is basically two huge bets in a trench coat pretending to be diversified. About 46% sits in a broad-ish U.S. large-cap growth fund, then 45.5% doubles down on a single high-octane industry ETF, with a small 8.5% slice tossed into small-cap value like an afterthought. Structurally, it’s less “portfolio” and more “theme trade with garnish.” When one of the big pieces sneezes, the whole thing catches pneumonia. The diversification score of 2/5 is generous; this is concentrated by design. It behaves more like a levered expression of one growthy corner of the market, not a balanced mix of different return engines.
Growth
Historically, the performance looks absurdly good: $1,000 turning into $6,266, with a 32.06% CAGR, absolutely torching both the U.S. market and global market. But that ride came with a -38.78% max drawdown that took 23 months from peak to full recovery. CAGR, by the way, is just your average speed over the whole trip, ignoring how many times you nearly drove off a cliff. This portfolio has been a lucky beneficiary of a very specific boom. Past data is yesterday’s traffic report: helpful to know where the potholes are, useless for predicting the next accident.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection is where the party lights dim. Simulations say the median outcome for $1,000 over 15 years is $2,634 — respectable but nowhere near the backward-looking fantasy of 32% a year. Monte Carlo is basically a thousand “what if the future is weird?” scenarios based on past volatility and returns. The range is wide: barely breaking even at the low end to a 7x at the high end, with a 72.3% chance of a positive result. Translation: this portfolio’s future is a high-variance story, not a guaranteed repeat of the last few glory years.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset-class breakdown is blissfully simple: 100% stocks, zero of anything else. No bonds, no cash buffer, no real assets, just pure equity exposure with the risk dial jammed to “let’s see what happens.” That’s consistent with the aggressive risk label, but it leaves no built-in shock absorbers. Different asset classes usually act like different friends: some are fun at parties, some help you move house. Here you only invited the adrenaline junkies. When markets crack, everything in this portfolio is heading in the same general direction — and it’s not “up.”
Sectors
- Technology 67%
- Telecommunications 8%
- Consumer Discretionary 7%
- Financials 5%
- Health Care 4%
- Industrials 4%
- Energy 2%
- Consumer Staples 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
Sector-wise, technology is basically the main character at 67%, with a supporting cameo from telecoms at 8% and a sprinkling of everything else. This is tech obsession, not sector diversification. Compared with broad indexes, this tilt makes normal tech-heavy funds look restrained. “Tech addiction detected” is an understatement; the semiconductor ETF alone ensures the portfolio lives and dies by one of the most cyclical, hype-driven areas. When conditions are perfect, this kind of focus feels genius. When sentiment turns or a single supply chain hiccups, the whole sector can reprice fast, and so does this portfolio.
Regions
- North America 93%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Europe Developed 2%
Geographically, this is basically a U.S. flag with a tiny participation trophy for the rest of the world. North America is 93%, with Asia Developed at 5% and Europe Developed at 2% just tagging along for the ride. For a global market where a huge chunk of opportunity sits outside the U.S., this is “America or bust, apparently.” It works beautifully when the U.S. is dominating, which it has been. If leadership rotates elsewhere, the portfolio is chained to one economic and political system. Global diversification isn’t just tourism; it’s risk management.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 53%
- Large-cap 30%
- Mid-cap 8%
- Small-cap 5%
- Micro-cap 4%
Market cap exposure is heavily skewed toward the giants: 53% mega-cap and 30% large-cap, with mid, small, and micro-caps fighting over scraps. So you’ve basically outsourced a lot of your fate to a handful of huge, well-known names while sprinkling a minor chaos element through the small-cap value sleeve. It’s a strange combo: worship the big winners, then toss 8.5% at the scrappy underdogs. In practice, this means the portfolio behaves mostly like a high-growth mega-cap machine, with a little extra volatility seasoning from the smaller end of town.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 12.89%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 5.32%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 4.36%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 4.29%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 3.85%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 3.20%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.11%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 3.01%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.67%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.30%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- Top 10 total 44.99%
The look-through holdings scream hidden concentration. NVIDIA alone shows up as 12.89% of the portfolio, just through ETFs. Add Broadcom, TSMC, Intel, AMD, Micron, and you’ve basically built a semiconductor shrine without ever buying a single stock directly. Meanwhile, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet quietly stack on top. Overlap is likely even worse than shown, since this only captures top-10 ETF positions. This is the classic “I own three funds, I must be diversified” illusion — except those three funds are all shoving the same handful of names to the front of the stage.
Factors
Factor-wise, this thing has a clear anti-value, anti-yield, anti-low-vol personality. Value at 21%, yield at 32%, and low volatility at 25% all show mild to strong tilts away from boring, steady stuff. Size, momentum, and quality are sitting around neutral, which really just means “market-like growth tilt supercharged by your fund choices.” Think of factors as the hidden seasoning: this portfolio is extra spicy growth with very little comfort food. In rough markets, lack of value and low-vol exposure means fewer natural shock absorbers; in hype-driven rallies, it rides the mania hard.
Risk contribution
-
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 45.50% 56.4% -
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Weight: 46.00% 37.7% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 8.50% 5.9%
Risk contribution exposes the real boss here: the VanEck Semiconductor ETF weighs 45.5% but delivers 56.39% of total portfolio risk. That’s one holding doing more than half the heavy lifting in volatility terms. The Schwab growth ETF is almost the same weight but only contributes 37.68% of risk, making it the “responsible” one in this trio. The small-cap value ETF, for all its supposed spiciness, barely moves the needle at 5.94% of risk. This isn’t a balanced committee; it’s one loud, twitchy member dominating every meeting while the others nod along.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart politely confirms what the holdings already scream: this is an efficient way to take a lot of risk. The current portfolio sits right on or very near the frontier, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.92. The “optimal” mix of the same three funds gets a Sharpe of 1.11 but at even higher volatility, and the min-variance combo still stays pretty wild. In plain English, given these ingredients, you’ve mixed them in a mathematically sensible way. The recipe is efficient, the cuisine is still “high-octane growth with a side of whiplash.”
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.39%
Dividends here are basically pocket lint: a 0.39% total yield. The semiconductor tilt and growth focus guarantee that income is an afterthought. That’s completely on-brand for a portfolio chasing capital appreciation, but it does mean there’s almost no built-in cash flow to soften drawdowns or fund spending. Yield, in this case, is more of an accidental side effect than a feature. If this portfolio were a restaurant, it’s serving tasting-menu fireworks with no bread basket — exciting when things go well, not very comforting when you’re hungry and markets are tanking.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.20%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio behaves like an adult. A blended TER of 0.20% is very reasonable, with the Schwab fund doing most of the fee heavy lifting at 0.04%. The semiconductor ETF at 0.35% and the small-cap value ETF at 0.25% are pricier but still not outrageous for niche tilts. You’re not lighting money on fire with fees; the real risk is what you’re paying to own, not what you’re paying for the wrappers. Think of it as buying discount tickets to a very volatile theme park — the rides are still intense, you just didn’t overpay at the gate.
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