This portfolio is composed of three Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), with a significant majority allocated to the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares (47.50%) and the American Century ETF Trust (37.50%). The remaining portion is invested in the Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF (15.00%). This composition indicates a strategic emphasis on broad market exposure, particularly within the U.S. stock market, complemented by a focus on small-cap value stocks for potential growth and diversification benefits.
Historically, this portfolio has demonstrated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.64%, with a maximum drawdown of -17.09%. These figures suggest a strong performance, with resilience during market downturns. The fact that 90% of returns were generated on just 14 days highlights the importance of remaining invested over the long term, as missing these key days could significantly impact overall returns.
Monte Carlo simulations, which run a range of outcomes based on historical data to forecast future performance, suggest a wide range of potential outcomes for this portfolio. With 998 out of 1,000 simulations showing positive returns, the median projection indicates a potential 917.4% increase. However, it's crucial to remember that these projections are speculative and depend on historical market behaviors, which may not predict future movements accurately.
The portfolio is almost entirely invested in stocks (99%), with negligible allocations to cash or other asset classes. This high concentration in equities is suitable for investors with a moderate to high risk tolerance, as stocks typically offer higher potential returns but come with increased volatility. The lack of bonds or other less volatile asset classes means the portfolio may experience larger swings in value.
Sector allocation covers a broad spectrum, with the largest exposures in Financial Services (20%) and Technology (19%). This sectoral spread supports diversification, reducing the risk associated with over-concentration in any single sector. However, the significant weight in Technology and Financial Services sectors may lead to higher volatility, reflecting these sectors' sensitivity to economic cycles and interest rate changes.
Geographically, the portfolio is heavily weighted towards North America (64%), with smaller allocations across developed Europe (15%), Japan (6%), and emerging markets in Asia (6%). This distribution suggests a strong home bias, which could limit exposure to potential growth in emerging markets and diversification benefits from a more global allocation.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a diversified mix across mega (30%), big (25%), medium (19%), small (13%), and micro (9%) cap stocks. This variety helps mitigate risk by spreading investments across companies of different sizes, though the emphasis on larger companies may stabilize returns, smaller and micro-cap stocks offer growth potential at higher risk levels.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The current portfolio's expected return is slightly below the optimal level suggested by the Efficient Frontier analysis, which indicates a potential return of 19.29% at a similar risk level. This analysis suggests there might be room to slightly adjust the asset allocation to achieve a better risk-return trade-off without significantly altering the portfolio's overall risk profile.
The portfolio's overall dividend yield stands at 1.95%, with individual ETF yields ranging from 1.20% to 3.00%. This income contributes to the portfolio's total return, offering a steady income stream in addition to potential capital gains. Dividend-yielding investments can also provide a buffer during market dips, although they may grow more slowly in rapidly rising markets.
The portfolio's total expense ratio (TER) averages to 0.17%, which is relatively low, especially given the broad exposure and management provided by the ETFs. Keeping costs low is crucial for long-term investment success, as even small differences in fees can significantly impact net returns over time.
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