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A dangerously concentrated usa stock rocket ship pretending to be a moderately diversified growth plan

Report created on Dec 28, 2025

Risk profile Info

5/7
Growth
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

3/5
Moderately Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This setup is basically three flavors of the S&P 500 with a sprinkle of dividends and a tiny “I guess global” add‑on. You’ve got momentum, growth, and plain S&P all tripping over the same mega US names, plus two dividend funds that also fish in the same pond. That’s not diversification; that’s costume changes. Compared to a typical broad portfolio, this is like owning several nearly identical cars in slightly different colors. Streamlining the overlapping funds and having clearer roles (core equity, diversifier, maybe some stability) would make this far cleaner and actually move the needle on risk control instead of just looking busy.

Growth Info

Historically, this thing has been on fire: a CAGR of ~19.6% is “enjoy it while it lasts” territory. CAGR, or Compound Annual Growth Rate, is just your average yearly speed over a long road trip, ignoring the potholes. Trouble is, those potholes are real: a max drawdown over 32% means a third of the value disappearing at one point. A plain vanilla US stock index did great too, so a lot of that win is just surfing a massive bull market, not genius design. Trimming concentration and adding real diversifiers would help avoid your future self rage‑quitting during the next big drop.

Projection Info

Monte Carlo simulations basically roll the dice on thousands of possible futures using past behavior as a rough script. Your median outcome ballooning to ~827% and even the 5th percentile at ~147% screams “equity rocket ship,” but also “hope markets keep loving what you own.” Simulations are like weather models: helpful, but nobody cancels life plans because a computer said it might be sunny in 2040. The risk is that all your big engines—growth, momentum, US mega‑caps—can slump together. Bringing in assets that don’t move in lockstep with US growth stocks could keep those ugly scenarios from feeling like financial free‑fall.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

Asset classes here are…just stocks. All stocks. Only stocks. No bonds, no cash buffer, no real diversifiers—just pure equity bravado. That fits a growth profile on paper, but it’s also like driving at highway speed with no seatbelt and hoping airbags are “overrated.” When markets rip up, you look brilliant. When markets tank, the entire ship goes down together because there’s no ballast. Introducing at least one stabilizing asset class—something that historically doesn’t crater as hard as equities—would make this feel less like a meme‑stock personality in an index‑fund body. Even a modest shift could smooth the ride a lot.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    36%
  • Financials
    13%
  • Telecommunications
    12%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    9%
  • Industrials
    8%
  • Health Care
    7%
  • Consumer Staples
    6%
  • Energy
    3%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Real Estate
    1%
  • Basic Materials
    1%

Sector tilt screams “US growth junkie”: 36% tech plus another 12% in communication services (aka stealth tech) and 9% consumer cyclicals. This is basically betting that the current corporate cool kids stay cool forever. Financials, industrials, healthcare show up, but they’re backup dancers, not headliners. In a boring, old‑school sense, a more balanced lineup would mean not having your entire mood tied to the fate of a few mega‑cap tech and platform companies. Dialing back the tech obsession and using more broadly diversified funds (instead of stacking overlapping ones) could keep you from relearning in real time that “sector darlings” eventually have mid‑life crises too.

Regions Info

  • North America
    95%
  • Europe Developed
    2%
  • Asia Emerging
    1%
  • Japan
    1%
  • Asia Developed
    1%

Geographically this is “America or bust” with 95% in North America and a token 5% politely allocated abroad so it looks thoughtful. That 5% international is basically decoration, not strategy. You’re massively exposed to one economy, one currency, and one policy backdrop. When the US wins, this is great; when the US stumbles or other regions lead, you’re the person who only ever eats one cuisine and wonders why everyone else is talking about variety. Gradually building up genuine international exposure—not just a tiny global side salad—could spread your risk and tap more than one engine of global growth over the long run.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    45%
  • Large-cap
    37%
  • Mid-cap
    16%
  • Small-cap
    1%

Market cap-wise, this is a love letter to big business: ~45% mega caps and 37% large caps, with mid caps as a side quest and small caps basically an afterthought at 1%. You’re riding the giants—great when they keep winning, brutal when they all sneeze at once. A classic US index is heavy on mega and large too, but you’ve doubled down by adding growth and momentum funds that further worship the top dogs. You’re not really capturing the “smaller, scrappier companies might eventually win” story. A more deliberate tilt toward mid/small, if desired, should be intentional, not accidental background noise.

Redundant positions Info

  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
    iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF
    High correlation
  • Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
    Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
    High correlation

Correlation here is off the charts: growth ETF and S&P ETF are basically siblings, and the two dividend funds look like twins. Correlation just means “how much stuff moves together”; in your case, almost everything panic‑sells at the same party. This makes your “multiple funds” feel more like one big US equity bet with extra paperwork. When markets wobble, owning five things that all drop at once doesn’t comfort anyone. Cutting overlapping funds and using fewer, broader building blocks that actually behave differently—by region, style, or asset class—would give you genuine risk spreading instead of just a crowded fund list pretending to be diverse.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

On a risk–return efficiency scale, this is more “amped‑up US growth fan” than “carefully tuned machine.” The idea of an Efficient Frontier is simple: for every level of risk, there’s a best possible return trade‑off—everything else is just noisy chaos. Your portfolio chases high returns but doesn’t fully earn its risk, because it piles into similar assets instead of combining different behaviors. That’s like loading all your calories into dessert and calling it “balanced nutrition.” Cleaning up overlapping funds, adding a couple of true diversifiers, and deciding exactly how much gut‑wrenching drawdown you’re willing to stomach would move you closer to efficient rather than just loud.

Dividends Info

  • iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF 2.10%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.80%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
  • Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.40%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 3.20%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 1.20%

The dividend slice is modest but confused: you’ve got two nearly interchangeable dividend funds plus growth and momentum funds that basically don’t care about yield. Total yield at ~1.2% is nothing to brag about; it’s barely more than a shrug. If the goal is income, this setup is half‑hearted. If the goal is growth, the dividend funds are minor drag and overlap heavily with the rest anyway. Dividend strategies can help smooth volatility a bit, but only if they’re sized and chosen with a purpose. Decide whether income is a real goal or just a buzzword, then either commit more thoughtfully or simplify aggressively.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF 0.08%
  • Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
  • Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
  • Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.04%
  • Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.07%

Costs are the one part you didn’t mess up: ~0.07% total TER is impressively low, like you accidentally ticked all the right cheap boxes. That said, low cost doesn’t automatically mean well built. You’ve essentially assembled a low‑fee herd of very similar US stock funds, so you’re saving pennies while potentially risking dollars on concentration and overlap. Think of it as buying discounted tickets to the same movie three times. Keeping the low‑cost mindset is gold, but you could probably own fewer ETFs and still pay peanuts while getting a cleaner, sharper exposure mix instead of this cluttered “cheap but redundant” setup.

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